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SCP-8494 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-8494
Expected annual
$1.6M
One-time setup
$5.5M
Annual recurring
$1.5M
Personnel
10
One-time capital and sunk costs are dominated by property purchase and postponed Site development; recurring costs are driven by staffed perimeter security, research/monitoring, and cover-story/legal expenditures. Estimated one-time capital & sunk costs ≈ $5,457,500 and annual recurring costs ≈ $1,544,000.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $5.5M
Sunk Site Development $3.0M
[#2] Opportunity cost / postponed Site development (sunk costs for previously planned development) estimated at $3,000,000 one-time.
Facilities $1.2M
[#1, #3, #4] Property purchase ($1,000,000), perimeter fencing/gates/signage ($100,000), and on-site guard infrastructure (shelter/utilities) ($80,000).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $500K
[#13] Specialized sensor development / exploratory R&D (optional: muon/neutrino/gravitimetric prototypes) estimated at $500,000 one-time.
Contingency Reserve $500K
[#24] One-time reserve fund for escalation / emergency relocation / accelerated R&D / mass-cover operations.
Equipment $210K
[#7, #8, #9, #11, #22] Patrol vehicle purchases (2 SUVs, $80,000), external surveillance hardware ($60,000), generator & installation ($32,500), forensic equipment ($30,000), hardened server setup ($15,000).
Phone Honeypot Setup $25K
[#10] Phone-honeypot setup and telecom legal agreements to mitigate invitation calls.
Road Repairs $20K
[#19] One-time road repairs to ensure site access.
Cover Story Setup $10K
[#16] One-time branded cover paperwork and front-company setup for the wildlife research outpost cover.
Sop Development $10K
[#20] Initial SOP development and initial training rollout.
Ppe Initial $2K
[#21] Initial purchase of PPE and emergency kits for non-entry exterior operations.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.5M/yr
Staff Wages $742K/yr
[#5, #10, #11, #25] Security personnel (6 guards × $52,000 fully burdened ≈ $312,000), 2 communications/phone triage analysts (~$180,000), 1 forensic specialist (~$150,000), and site/program manager (~$100,000) — total wages.
Research And Monitoring $350K/yr
[#12, #14] Non-invasive scientific research budget (~$150,000/yr) and controlled human-testing allocation / experimental trials reserve (~$200,000/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $170K/yr
[#16, #17, #18] Legal/local-government liaison and cover maintenance (~$100,000/yr), public-relations/disinformation/hush measures (~$50,000/yr), and property taxes & insurance (~$20,000/yr).
Logistics And Transport $120K/yr
[#6, #7] QRT readiness (contract/training/standby, ~$100,000/yr) and patrol vehicle operations (fuel/maintenance/insurance for vehicles, ~$20,000/yr).
Medical And Mortuary $100K/yr
[#15] Medical treatment, casualty care, autopsies, mortuary processing, and psychological care reserve (~$100,000/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $12K/yr
[#21, #23] PPE consumables replacement (~$2,000/yr) and general site consumables/office supplies (~$10,000/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $10K/yr
[#19] Annual road upkeep, site building maintenance, and fire-mitigation upkeep.
External Surveillance Maintenance $10K/yr
[#8] Maintenance, data storage, and periodic servicing for perimeter CCTV/thermal cameras (~$10,000/yr).
Telecom Fees $10K/yr
[#10] Telecom/phone-honeypot ongoing fees, carrier cooperation costs (~$10,000/yr).
Data Storage And Cyberdefense $10K/yr
[#22] Annual secure data storage, archival, and cyber-defense measures for footage, logs, and research (~$10,000/yr).
Backup Fuel And Testing $5K/yr
[#9] Fuel rotation, testing, and fuel storage maintenance for the diesel generator (~$5,000/yr).
Training And Drills $5K/yr
[#20] Annual refresher training, SOP drills, and exercises (~$5,000/yr).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.5M/yr
88.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with no breaches or major R&D scale-ups; routine operations, staffing, and maintenance only.
no_breach routine_operations
🚨 Minor Incident $1.7M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Single small breach or staff/civilian injury requiring medical response, small repair, and investigation.
single_fatality_or_severe_injury targeted_investigation minor_equipment_replacement
🚨 Major Breach $2.9M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$1.4M vs baseline
Significant civilian exposure or containment breach requiring mass-cover operations, emergency relocation, and large legal/PR response.
civilian_mass_exposure extensive_media_attention emergency_relocation_or_replacement
🚨 Research Breakthrough Scale Up $3.0M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Leadership approves a major investment in speculative interior-mapping R&D and instrumentation beyond baseline optional efforts.
executive_priority_on_interior_mapping major_R&D_contract_awarded
👥 Personnel 10 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#5] 24/7 perimeter guard force (6 guards assumed for rotation, fully burdened).
Analyst / Communications Triage 2 [#10] 1–2 FTEs to triage invitation calls and run the phone-honeypot (2 used in estimates).
Forensic Specialist / Research Technician 1 [#11] One specialist-level FTE for digital/forensic analysis of calls and signal windows.
Site Manager / Project Manager 1 [#25] ~1 FTE site/project manager to coordinate security, research, budgets, and reporting.
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items come from explicit analyst estimates and midpoints, particularly for property, personnel, and recurring operations, giving reasonable fidelity. Uncertainties remain in low-probability large R&D or breach costs and in how shared Foundation resources are apportioned; optional specialized R&D and sunk-cost assumptions add variance.
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