SCP-8705 — SCP-8705 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-8705 Keter ? low confidence

SCP-8705

Expected annual

$37.0M

One-time setup

$121.6M

Annual recurring

$36.2M

Personnel

130

Initial one-time buildout and asset purchases are large (roughly $122M in the selected midcase), driven by vessel/aircraft purchases, deep-sea and recorder hardware, and a large contingency reserve; ongoing annual operations are substantial (~$36.2M/yr) dominated by personnel, vessel operations/fuel, satellite imagery/subscriptions, and logistics.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $121.6M

Contingency Fund $50.0M

[#25] Contingency catastrophic-response reserve for large-scale salvage, international operations, and public mitigation.

Vessel Purchase And Refit $19.5M

[#4] Purchase/charter and refit of cover vessels (fleet of 6–12 small trawlers/patrol trawlers).

Fast Response Vessels Capex $16.5M

[#5] Capex for fast open-response/interceptor boats (3–6 boats).

Hardened Recorders Initial $10.0M

[#10] Hardened non-visual sensors, black-box recorders, autonomous beacon pods for outfitting large numbers of vessels.

Air Assets Capex $7.5M

[#21] Purchase of helicopters/drone program capital and related air-asset acquisition costs.

Comms Initial $6.0M

[#11] Initial purchase/installation of satellite/Iridium/VSAT terminals and secure comms hardware for 200–800 vessels (initial provisioning).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $4.2M

[#8, #14] Research lab and forensic lab buildout, instrumentation and initial R&D equipment.

Deepsea Equipment Capex $3.0M

[#9] Purchase of ROVs/AUVs and side-scan/multibeam equipment for deep-sea survey capability.

Insurance Reserve Initial $2.5M

[#17] One-time seed for insurance/claims reserve to settle large or early incidents quietly.

Facilities $1.6M

[#1] Physical buildout of the dedicated maritime monitoring center (operations room, secure comms room, workstations, secure server room).

Amber Procurement Initial $200K

[#6] Initial bulk beads/jewelry and museum-quality specimens acquisition and secure storage setup.

Legal Entity Setup $200K

[#18] One-time setup of shell NGOs, research institutes, or commercial companies for cover and cross-border presence.

Survivor Facilities Initial $150K

[#13] Secure clinic room buildouts for survivor intake, debriefing, and acute care.

Amber Fabrication Setup $100K

[#7] Setup for amber production/fabrication, tamper-evident packaging, and covert distribution infrastructure.

Emergency Kits Initial $100K

[#22] Initial emergency amber & rapid-delivery kits pre-positioned at key ports.

Equipment $0

[]

Aggregate Budget Guidance $0

[#30] Aggregate order-of-magnitude guidance (informational; no discrete set-aside here).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $36.2M/yr

Staff Wages $18.0M/yr

[#3, #26] Salaries and benefits covering embedded field agents (embedded mariners/operatives) and core staff (researchers, data analysts, pilots, legal, logistics, operations).

Logistics And Transport $10.3M/yr

[#4, #5, #9, #11, #20, #22] Recurring vessel crewing & maintenance (cover vessels), fast-boat operations, deep-sea charter/operations baseline, comms airtime, fuel/operational consumables, and kit replenishment.

Research And Monitoring $1.2M/yr

[#8] Ongoing R&D personnel, experiments, lab consumables, and monitoring program costs.

Satellite And Imagery Subscriptions $1.1M/yr

[#2] Continuous AIS feeds, commercial imagery subscriptions, and on-demand tasking (optical/SAR).

Cover Story And Legal $900K/yr

[#15, #23] Legal, diplomatic, cover-up budgets and public-relations/misinformation/controlled narrative.

Facilities Maintenance $800K/yr

[#1] Ongoing monitoring center operations: power, facility upkeep, and basic facility-level services.

Air Assets Recurring $800K/yr

[#21] Helicopter/drones chartering, maintenance, and readiness reserve for medevac and rapid response.

Forensic Operations $500K/yr

[#14] Ongoing forensic lab operations, sample analysis, and chain-of-custody storage operations.

Cross Border Liaison $500K/yr

[#24] Covert funding/liaison support to allied navies/coastguards and localized upgrades.

Cybersecurity $400K/yr

[#28] SIGINT, AIS/VHF monitoring, secure communications maintenance, and cybersecurity for program infrastructure.

Supplies And Consumables $300K/yr

[#27] Small-item consumables, PPE, vessel spare parts, amber replacements and routine kit replenishment.

Influence Operations $300K/yr

[#16] Bribes, incentives, grants, and community influence operations to secure cooperation.

Audit And Internal Security $300K/yr

[#29] Annual audit, internal compliance, counter-espionage, vetting, and leak prevention measures.

Hardened Recorders Maintenance $200K/yr

[#10] Maintenance and replacement budget for hardened recorders, beacon pods, and non-visual sensor networks.

Insurance And Compensation Fund $200K/yr

[#17] Ongoing cushion/reserve contributions for claims, minor settlements, and per-incident payouts.

Data Suppression Budget $200K/yr

[#19] Secure archival storage costs, FOIA/records suppression budget, and budget for falsified public records/legal challenges.

Shell Infrastructure Maintenance $150K/yr

[#18] Maintenance and operating costs for shell NGOs, commercial covers, and associated registrations.

Amber Distribution $50K/yr

[#7] Ongoing fabrication/distribution logistics, tamper-evident packaging, shipping, and customs cover for covert distribution.

Amber Inventory Replacement $25K/yr

[#6] Annual replacement/resupply of bulk amber inventory distributed to civilian/Foundation vessels.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $36.2M/yr

83.0% probability / year

Normal year with routine ops, scheduled maintenance, training, and no major incidents.

routine_patrols scheduled_research no_mass_incidents

🚨 Minor Incident $38.2M/yr

15.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline

Localized cluster of disappearances requiring an intensive deep-sea campaign, rapid imagery tasking, extra legal/cover payouts, and surge staff overtime.

localized_mass_disappearance intensive_deep-sea_campaign rapid_imagery_tasking

🚨 Major Breach $61.2M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline

Large-scale multi-vessel disappearance with public exposure risk requiring international salvage, large settlements, and deployment of contingency reserve.

multi-vessel_mass_event public_exposure international_salvage

👥 Personnel 130 total

Role	Count	Notes
Embedded Field Agent	50	[#3] Operatives embedded in fishing fleets (cover identities, living expenses, rotation); included in staff wage total.
Research Scientist	20	[#8, #14] Oceanographers, materials scientists, neurocognitive scientists on the research program; salaries included in staff wages.
Data Analysts / Operators	25	[#1, #2] Monitoring center analysts, AIS/radar/satellite operators; salaries included in staff wages.
ROV/AUV Pilots & Marine Technicians	10	[#9] Deep-sea survey and salvage operators; included in staff wages.
Logistics / Vessel Crew (Foundation-held)	5	[#4, #5] Crewing for Foundation-owned cover and fast-response vessels; crew salaries included in staff wages/logistics.
Security Officer / MTF Agent	5	[#5, #29] Security and rapid-response personnel; included in staff wages.
Medical Officer	3	[#13] Medical/psychiatric staff for survivor handling; included in staff wages.
Engineer / Maintenance	5	[#10, #11] Engineers for sensors, comms, and equipment maintenance; included in staff wages.
Administrative Staff / Legal / PR	5	[#15, #23] Administrative, legal, and PR personnel supporting cover operations; included in staff wages.
Site Director / Executive Staff	2	[#1, #18] Program leadership and cross-border liaisons; included in staff wages.

📋 Confidence Notes

Costs are low-confidence because the SCP is anomalous and uncontained (Keter); many cost ranges were provided and mission tempo, asset counts, and contingency use are highly uncertain, producing wide credible ranges.

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