SCP-8809 — SCP-8809 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-8809 Keter ~ medium confidence

SCP-8809

Expected annual

$4.3M

One-time setup

$1.7M

Annual recurring

$4.2M

Personnel

One-time setup costs for fielding surveillance, vessels, and initial research are roughly $1.75M; steady-state annual operations (personnel, monitoring, disinformation, logistics, legal) run about $4.18M, driven mainly by staff wages, disinformation/legal operations, and contingency/reserve funds.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.7M

Equipment $530K

[#1, #3, #4] Fixed river surveillance nodes, UAV acquisitions, boats/amphibious craft procurement (cameras, buoys, UAV fleet, 2–3 craft).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $225K

[#14] Lab/field experiment setup: benches, consumables, biosafety upgrades for controlled studies.

Security Clearances Setup $200K

[#24] Baseline security clearance processing and classified records infrastructure one-time costs.

Environmental Remediation Reserve $200K

[#26] One-time set-aside for potential environmental remediation/fines contingency.

Disinformation Startup $100K

[#8] Initial campaign materials/fake-entity setup for public narrative.

Communications Equipment $100K

[#18] Procurement of encrypted radios, satellite phones and secure comms hardware.

Contingency Prestock $100K

[#22] One-time pre-stocking for rapid-response team and emergency equipment.

Facilities $55K

[#12] Renovation/convert local property for secure interviews/safehouses (minor secure renovations).

Permitting And Environmental Assessment $50K

[#15] Environmental permitting, impact studies and compliance one-time fees/consultants.

Evidence Handling $50K

[#13] Secure evidence lockers, cataloguing systems and small cold-storage one-time costs.

Data And Automation Setup $40K

[#19] Initial data storage/automation setup, video-review automation installation.

Training Initial $35K

[#21] Initial intensive training, certifications and drills.

Local Liaison Startup $25K

[#7] One-time starter pool for informants/undercover ops.

Ppe Startup $25K

[#20] Initial PPE, waders, wetsuits, evidence-collection kits and body-cams startup.

Cultural Consultant Startup $12K

[#16] Initial outreach/retainer for cultural consultants and translators.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.2M/yr

Staff Wages $1.5M/yr

[#5, #6] Field containment team and intelligence/analyst staff salaries and benefits (10–15 field agents + 5–10 analysts; payroll taxes/benefits).

Cover Story And Legal $480K/yr

[#8, #9] Disinformation/public narrative operations plus coordination/legal liaison retainer and related cover-story costs.

Contingency Rapid Response Fund $350K/yr

[#22] Annual reserved fund for rapid-response, overtime and emergency deployments for escalations.

Research And Monitoring $300K/yr

[#14] Ongoing lab and controlled field research staff and running costs to define/replicate sequence.

Psychological Treatment $300K/yr

[#11] Psychological treatment, rehab, parole monitoring and associated therapists/case managers (includes parole officer costs in recurring budget estimates).

Litigation Reserve $200K/yr

[#23] Annual reserve for defense attorneys, settlements and civil defense related to arrests/exposure.

Logistics And Transport $135K/yr

[#4, #25] Boat/amphibious vehicle maintenance, fuel, trailers, routine fleet operating costs and transport vehicles.

Arrest Processing $130K/yr

[#10] Arrest transport, booking, temporary custody and per-incident admin (estimate assumes 10–50 incidents/yr).

Data Storage And Analytics $120K/yr

[#19] Cloud/on-prem storage costs, analyst licenses and automated video analytics fees.

Local Liaison Budget $100K/yr

[#7] Ongoing payments to informants, undercover ops funds and controlled observation expenses.

Community Programs $100K/yr

[#17] Funding for community cover programs, outreach and local projects to reinforce narrative.

Sensor Connectivity And Maintenance $90K/yr

[#2] Cellular/satellite links, SIM/data plans, solar/battery maintenance, replacement parts and yearly repairs for marsh hardware.

Security Clearances Renewals $50K/yr

[#24] Periodic reinvestigations, clearance renewals and classified records management upkeep.

Small Scale Public Research $50K/yr

[#27] Grants and liaison budget to seed benign academic studies and vet external queries.

Facilities Maintenance $42K/yr

[#12] Lease and upkeep for secure interview/debrief facility and safehouse(s) (monthly lease estimate).

Cultural Consultants $40K/yr

[#16] Annual retainers and honoraria for cultural/religious studies advisors and translators.

Training And Certifications $40K/yr

[#21] Ongoing certifications, refresher courses and drills for personnel.

Miscellaneous Administration $40K/yr

[#28] Procurement, accounting, permits, office supplies and petty cash.

Uav Maintenance $35K/yr

[#3] UAV spares, maintenance, insurance and operator recertification costs.

Supplies And Consumables $30K/yr

[#20] Ongoing PPE replacements, consumables, batteries, body-cam consumables.

Evidence Storage Processing $25K/yr

[#13] Ongoing evidence storage, processing and secure destruction services.

Communications Services $20K/yr

[#18] Service plans for satphones/encrypted comms and periodic device replacement.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.2M/yr

85.0% probability / year

Normal year with steady monitoring, arrests handled at anticipated rates, and no large-scale exposure or major incidents.

routine arrests and monitoring no major breaches standard research cadence

🚨 Minor Incident $4.5M/yr

12.0% probability / year +$350K vs baseline

Localized escalation (cluster of arrests, short-term spike in public attention) requiring overtime, extra forensic processing and increased disinformation activity.

clustered ritual events observed media attention requiring targeted disinfo small spike in arrests

🚨 Major Breach $6.2M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline

Significant public exposure or large-scale incident (mass arrests, environmental damage, high-profile litigation) necessitating major remediation, legal settlements, surge staffing and replacement equipment.

major media/political exposure environmental remediation orders mass-casualty or mass-arrest response

👥 Personnel 20 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	12	Field containment team (boats, patrols, tactical medics) — counts and salaries are the primary component of staff_wages [#5].
Intelligence Analyst	8	Surveillance monitoring, signal analysis and case officers covered by staff_wages [#6].

📋 Confidence Notes

Analyst notes provide granular line items and ranges for most categories, enabling order-of-magnitude estimates; uncertainty remains in incident probabilities, scale decisions (monitor vs aggressive suppression), and environmental/permitting variability, so confidence is medium.

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