SCP-8891 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-8891
Expected annual
$21.4M
One-time setup
$263.0M
Annual recurring
$9.3M
Personnel
20
One-time containment/treatment infrastructure and an aggressive mass surgical campaign drive extremely high up-front costs (~$263,000,000 one-time); routine monitoring, case management, and limited medical care drive ongoing costs (~$9,300,000/yr). Primary drivers: R&D and lab setup, potential mass surgical campaign, long-term care and monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $263.0M
Mass Surgical Campaign $200.0M
[#4] One-time mass remediation/surgical campaign to attempt extraction/treatment of many recipients (aggregate midpoint representative of $84M–$422M cohort estimate).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $25.3M
[#10, #14] Reverse-engineering R&D program equipment/personnel and initial program (~$25,000,000 midpoint) + initial specialist clinician training program (~$275,000).
Contingency Reserve $10.5M
[#25] Contingency reserve (~20% of initial one-time subtotal) to cover overruns, escalation and unpredictable exposures.
Legal Settlements $10.0M
[#17] One-time contingency/settlement budget (representative mid-range allocation for litigations/ buyouts).
Facilities $9.2M
[#11, #15, #16] MEMS cleanroom / small fabrication line ($6,000,000 mid), EM-shielded OR suite ($3,000,000 mid), secure storage/vault setup ($200,000 mid).
Relocation Campaign $5.0M
[#19] Single large relocation/custody campaign (armored/air transfers to Foundation facilities; representative mid-range).
Equipment $3.0M
[#12, #20] High-end imaging and analytical equipment purchase (MRI/CT/SEM/FIB/etc mid ~$2,750,000) + data-management/IT one-time setup (~$275,000).
Illustrative Scenario $0
[#26] Illustrative scenario summary (minimal vs aggressive budgets) captured in scenarios rather than as a single cost line.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $9.3M/yr
Research And Monitoring $1.8M/yr
[#2, #13, #14, #20] Field surveillance/SIGINT & IMINT contracts, animal-models/vivarium partial program funding, refresher clinician training and data/IT operations (recurring program & monitoring costs).
Staff Wages $1.6M/yr
[#1, #22] Dedicated monitoring & welfare case-management salaries (representative midpoint of analyst range; includes program admin/staff).
Supplies And Consumables $1.2M/yr
[#6, #8, #18] Palliative/chronic medical treatment, toxicology/chelation supplies, and recurring amnestic administrations (aggregate recurring consumables).
Long Term Care $1.0M/yr
[#5] Subsidized or Foundation-provided long-term residential/assisted living for a subset of recipients (representative limited custody costs).
Hospitalizations $1.0M/yr
[#9] Infectious disease management and acute hospital admissions (aggregate annual budget for dozens of admissions).
Cover Story And Legal $600K/yr
[#17, #24] Ongoing legal retainers, cover-story maintenance, IRB/ethics overhead and compliance legal costs.
Logistics And Transport $500K/yr
[#3, #19] Emergency response retainer (medevac/rapid teams) and recurrent secure transport escorts/charters.
Hazardous Disposal $500K/yr
[#16] Per-device secure disposal, hazardous waste handling and chain-of-custody operations (recurring disposal/storage costs).
Facilities Maintenance $400K/yr
[#12, #15] Maintenance and operation of imaging equipment and EM-shielded OR suite (mid-range annual maintenance).
Rehabilitation Services $300K/yr
[#7] PT/OT/SLP, assistive technology maintenance and consumables (recurring rehab services).
Personnel Hazard Pay And Insurance $200K/yr
[#21] Hazard pay supplements and enhanced insurance premiums for high-risk staff (representative allocation).
Public Health Buyins $200K/yr
[#23] Grants/contracting with local hospitals/providers to suppress or manage cases without escalation.
Per Kit Production $0/yr
[#11] Recurring contract production of maintenance kits (set to 0 in baseline/minimal posture; production would be budgeted if active remediation proceeds).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $9.3M/yr
93.0% probability / year
Normal year with monitoring/suppression posture and limited Foundation custody; no mass remediation campaign.
routine_monitoring periodic_hospitalizations no_mass_remediation
🚨 Major Incident $11.8M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Localized cluster of severe complications, hospitalizations, or limited public exposure requiring emergency activations and extra legal/medical costs.
widespread_infection cluster_hospitalizations limited_media_exposure
🚨 Aggressive Remediation $249.6M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$240.3M vs baseline
Authorized R&D + mass surgical/remediation campaign year: large one-time R&D and surgery expenditures plus elevated recurring operational tempo.
project_Jiangshi_scaleup mass_surgical_campaign large_scale_manufacturing
👥 Personnel 20 total
Role Count Notes
Case Manager / Social Worker 12 [#1] Primary welfare & case-management staff represented in staff_wages estimate.
24/7 Hotline Operator 4 [#1] Round-the-clock phone-line operators for remote check-ins and incident triage.
Administrative Staff / Record Keeper 2 [#1] Medical records, amnestic tracking and scheduling support.
Program Director / Compliance Officer 1 [#22] Program leadership and liaison included in staff_wages.
Finance / Procurement Administrator 1 [#22] Small administrative support for contracting and budgeting included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Cost ranges are broad and driven by technical uncertainty (ease of reproducing toolkit, per-patient surgical feasibility), litigation risk, and policy choices (suppression vs active remediation). Many line items are estimates from analyst ranges rather than fixed vendor quotes, so confidence is medium.
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