SCP-8916 — SCP-8916 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-8916 Safe ~ medium confidence

SCP-8916

Expected annual

$284K

One-time setup

$323K

Annual recurring

$268K

Personnel

1.25

Initial one-time setup and contingency reserves are the largest up-front costs (~$323k); annual operations are moderate (~$268k/yr) driven by staff, legal/cover costs, and lab testing/monitoring.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $323K

Initial Research And Lab Setup $100K

[#12] Initial benchspace / BSL-2 allocation and lab setup costs if internal capacity is established.

Emergency Fund Reserve $100K

[#24] One-time emergency reserve for indemnity/major legal/PR actions.

Removal And Remediation Fund $60K

[#23] Contingency fund reserved for tree removal, biohazard remediation and site work in an episodic removal scenario.

Equipment $32K

[#5, #6, #9, #10, #16, #28] Site monitoring hardware, off-grid power, climbing kit, initial PPE stock, -80C freezer purchase, and initial secure comms equipment.

Facilities $17K

[#1, #7] One-time land easement/initial goodwill payments and structural assessment for the tree/site.

Data Ingestion $6K

[#17] One-time data ingestion / secure archival setup costs.

Records Acquisition And Redaction $5K

[#3] One-time costs for redaction/records acquisition to support cover/legal needs.

Archival Acquisition $3K

[#25] One-time archival fees and acquisition of historical materials.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $268K/yr

Cover Story And Legal $94K/yr

[#1, #2, #3, #22, #24, #25, #26, #28, #29] Annual land/use payments, local liaison/community relations, legal retainer, PR/cover events, insurance premiums, ongoing historical research fees, permits, secure communications subscriptions, and periodic audits.

Staff Wages $85K/yr

[#18] Salaries for part-time PI (0.2–0.3 FTE) and local site manager (primary staffed positions).

Research And Monitoring $53K/yr

[#12, #13, #17] Annual lab analysis (per-sample testing), outsourced lab fees / internal operating costs, and data archival/management.

Logistics And Transport $7K/yr

[#8, #9, #11] Field collection travel/per-diem, occasional access equipment rental for Harvest, and refrigerated chain-of-custody transport.

Seasonal Contractors $6K/yr

[#19] Seasonal technicians, arborists, and hourly contractors called in for Harvest operations.

On Site Security $5K/yr

[#4] Contracted/temporary on-site security and coordination with local PD for the May 15 Harvest.

Supplies And Consumables $4K/yr

[#10, #14] Ongoing PPE replacement and laboratory consumables/reagents/slides.

Training And Drills $4K/yr

[#20] Annual biosafety and emergency/PR drills for staff and contractors.

Facilities Maintenance $3K/yr

[#5, #6, #16] Connectivity/cloud costs for monitors, cellular/data service, and freezer electricity/maintenance.

Medical Surveillance $3K/yr

[#21] Employee health monitoring, vaccinations, baseline screens and exposure treatment readiness.

Minor Recurring Misc $3K/yr

[#30] Small recurring utilities and miscellaneous expenses (fuel, postage, office supplies, etc.).

Biohazard Waste Disposal $2K/yr

[#15] Licensed biohazard waste disposal (incineration/autoclave) for tissues and contaminated PPE.

Long Term Research Program $0/yr

[#27] Optional expanded research program (30k–200k/yr if pursued); baseline containment assumes this is not active (set to $0 here).

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $268K/yr

89.0% probability / year

Normal year: annual Harvest operations, routine monitoring, scheduled sampling and no major incidents.

routine monitoring annual Harvest collection no public incident

🚨 Minor Incident $348K/yr

5.0% probability / year +$80K vs baseline

Localized incident (damage/infection to part of the tree or limited public exposure) requiring targeted remediation and increased PR/legal activity.

localized tree damage limited public exposure temporary media attention

🚨 Major Removal $768K/yr

1.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline

Full tree removal and large-scale biohazard remediation plus major legal/PR settlement costs.

tree collapse or widespread contamination major lawsuit or public exposure extensive biohazard remediation

🚨 Research Scaleup $418K/yr

5.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline

Decision/ability to expand into a formal long-term research program (sequencing cohorts, graduate support, expanded testing).

scientific breakthrough grant or executive decision to expand increased sampling program

👥 Personnel 1.25 total

Role	Count	Notes
Site Manager / Local Coordinator	1	[#18] Full-time local site manager included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist / PI (part-time)	0.25	[#18] Part-time PI (approx. 0.2–0.3 FTE) included in staff_wages for oversight and coordination.

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates derived directly from analyst ranges in notes; many line items have wide ranges (legal, remediation, research scale-up) and some contingency choices are discretionary, so medium confidence.

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