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SCP-8920 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-8920
Expected annual
$1.1B
One-time setup
$4.4B
Annual recurring
$1.1B
Personnel
320
Initial capital to stand up an Atlantic-scale ionospheric/atmospheric mitigation program is estimated at ~$4.13B one-time, driven by array construction and R&D; steady-state annual operations are estimated at ~$1.108B/yr, driven by maintenance/spares, energy use, and contingency/cover operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.4B
Facilities $2.0B
[#2, #22] Facilities: coastal/island phased-array sites, radomes, hardened bunkers and site hardening.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.1B
[#1, #20, #24] Long-term R&D program, initial scientific research program, baseline environmental studies and lab buildout.
Equipment $695.0M
[#5, #6, #7, #8, #10, #11, #13] Major hardware purchases: HPC, satellites/remote sensors, aircraft, mobile radars, drones, cyber hardware.
Satellite Procurement $300.0M
[#6] One-time procurement option for dedicated remote sensing satellites (hardware purchase scenario).
Energy Infrastructure Build $150.0M
[#3] Grid interconnects, substations, fuel storage and on-site backup power installation (one-time build).
Joint Program Integration $100.0M
[#16] One-time integration and shared-facility costs with GOC/allied partners.
Decommissioning Reserve $100.0M
[#27] Provision for decommissioning and hazardous-waste disposal per major site (reserve/capital).
Legal And Treaty Setup $5.0M
[#23] One-time legal/regulatory setup, treaty arrangements and diplomatic backchannel establishment.
Mtf Startup Training $2.0M
[#9] One-time onboarding/training equipment and initial recruit pipeline costs for MTF Tau-10.
Cover Story Setup $1.5M
[#14] One-time setup for cover organizations, shell grants and initial covert embedding costs.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.1B/yr
Supplies And Consumables $250.0M/yr
[#3, #4, #10, #11, #12] Fuel, spares, RF components, generator consumables, vehicle/aircraft maintenance and high-volume replacement parts (~10-20% of capital).
Contingency Surcharge $150.0M/yr
[#30] Emergency escalation fund (25-50% contingency recommendation averaged into annual run-rate).
Cover Story And Legal $80.0M/yr
[#14, #15, #23] Covert embedding, media suppression, legal teams, PR, disinformation campaigns and diplomatic costs.
Operational Energy Consumption $75.0M/yr
[#3, #4] Electricity and fuel costs for active mitigation campaigns and array operations (variable by activation frequency).
Research And Monitoring $60.0M/yr
[#5, #6, #7, #20, #24] Supercomputing operations, model development, sensor tasking, ocean monitoring upkeep and ongoing scientific research.
Logistics And Transport $60.0M/yr
[#8, #17] Ship charters, aircraft operations, helicopter support, deployment logistics and port fees.
Administrative Overhead $60.0M/yr
[#29] Back-office, clandestine procurement overhead and shell-company costs (5-15% typical).
Facilities Maintenance $50.0M/yr
[#2, #22] Routine maintenance and hardening upkeep for multi-site array network and support facilities.
Emergency Response Reserve $50.0M/yr
[#18] Annual reserve for humanitarian cover, relief supplies and rapid-response expenditures.
Insurance Liability Reserve Annual Replenishment $50.0M/yr
[#19] Annual replenishment and financing of a larger liquid contingency/insurance reserve.
Capability Refresh $50.0M/yr
[#28] Averaged annual budget for mid-life tech refresh cycles (~5-10 year upgrades).
Staff Wages $40.0M/yr
[#9, #21] Payroll for MTF, researchers, pilots and core staff including estimated personnel overhead (~25-40% included in staffing calculations).
Security Operations $40.0M/yr
[#22] Armed contractors, perimeter security, K-9, sensors and routine security operations across sites.
Satellite Leasing $30.0M/yr
[#6] Recurring leasing/charter costs for commercial satellite time and contracted airborne sensors (if not purchased).
Joint Program Shared Ops $20.0M/yr
[#16] Annual shared-operation costs with GOC/allies (liaison, shared tasking).
Crisis Casualty Reserve $20.0M/yr
[#26] Ongoing reserve for casualty management, morgue logistics and psychological care.
Cybersecurity Ops $10.0M/yr
[#13] Ongoing secure comms, monitoring and cyber defense for control networks and data operations.
Drone Operations $5.0M/yr
[#11] Replacement and operational costs for expendable microprobes and UAVs.
Training And Exercises $5.0M/yr
[#25] Annual seasonal drills, full-system activations and multi-agency exercises.
Ocean Monitoring Maintenance $3.0M/yr
[#7] Maintenance, redeployment and expendables for buoys, profilers and USVs.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.1B/yr
89.5% probability / year
Normal year with steady operations, scheduled exercises, and no major containment incidents.
seasonal_readiness routine_activations
🚨 Minor Incident $1.2B/yr
8.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Localized equipment failure, partial site outage, or a short-duration SCP activation requiring extra activations and limited public containment response.
localized_system_failure partial_site_compromise short-duration_activation
🚨 Major Breach $1.5B/yr
2.0% probability / year +$392.0M vs baseline
Multi-site failures or a rapid, partially public SCP event requiring large-scale humanitarian response, major repairs, and prolonged PR/legal work.
multi-site_failure widespread_public_exposure large-scale_event
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $5.0B/yr
0.5% probability / year +$3.9B vs baseline
Full containment collapse with mass casualties, international fallout and multi-year recovery/cleanup efforts.
full_containment_failure mass_casualties international_incident
👥 Personnel 320 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 120 [#9, #22] Field teams, armed contractors and storm-intercept personnel distributed across sites.
Research Scientist 80 [#1, #5, #20] Atmospheric physicists, modelers and lab researchers driving detection and mitigation R&D.
Engineer / Maintenance 40 [#2, #3, #8] Array/site engineers, generator/grid specialists and maintenance crews for hardware and ships/aircraft.
Pilot / Aircrew 20 [#8] Crew for hurricane-hunter aircraft, helicopters, and UAV operations.
Administrative Staff 20 [#14, #23, #29] Clandestine procurement, accounting, legal liaisons and cover administration.
Medical Officer 10 [#26] Trauma/psych teams for staff and casualty management.
Site Director / Executive Staff 2 [#16] Program leadership and liaison with allied organizations.
Contractor Technical Staff 28 [#6, #7, #11] Satellite/remote-sensing contractors, USV operators and UAV technicians (contracted roles).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates derived from analyst ranges with many broad intervals and option-based items (procure vs lease). Engineering and geopolitical costs introduce uncertainty; mid-range selections used.
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