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SCP-9016 Keter ? low confidence
SCP-9016
Expected annual
$22.8M
One-time setup
$7.2M
Annual recurring
$22.6M
Personnel
16
Initial capital outlay of approximately $7.19M driven by containment retrofit (quarantine rooms), specialized imaging equipment (Astral Tomography), cGMP setup and IT/security; recurring annual operations are large (~$22.62M/yr) driven primarily by remote site overhead, ongoing research and clinical trials, staffing, and contingency/reserve funds.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $7.2M
Equipment $2.4M
[#6, #11] Astral Tomography hardware + installation/operator training ($1M–$3M + $100k) and containment instrumentation install ($150k–$350k). Midpoint estimates combined here.
Facilities $1.3M
[#1, #8, #9] Quarantine room retrofits (4 rooms, $400k–$1.2M total range), fire-suppression & flame-mitigation upgrades ($50k–$300k), and repair/remediation of Pendragon-Igraine Annex damage ($200k–$1M). Estimates summed and midpoints used.
Cgmp Setup $1.2M
[#17] One-time cGMP line/setup for countermeasure manufacture ($500k–$2M); midpoint used.
Legal Settlement Reserve $550K
[#14] One-time recommended settlement/reserve for injured civilians/staff ($100k–$1M); midpoint used.
Secure Transport Vehicles $500K
[#10] Purchase of 1–2 Faraday-shielded/EM-hardened isolation vehicles (assumed 2 vehicles at midpoint ~$150k–$350k each).
It Security $375K
[#12] Initial secure data handling & memetic-containment IT (air-gapped servers, encryption, memetic-filtered viewers) estimated $250k–$500k; midpoint used.
Background Checks $195K
[#28] Initial background checks and clearances for ~30 staff ($3k–$10k per person -> $90k–$300k); midpoint used.
Generator Purchase $150K
[#25] Backup generator purchase / redundancy ($50k–$250k); midpoint used.
Protective Equipment $125K
[#20] Initial specialized restraints, remote sedation hardware, drones/robotics, hazmat suits ($50k–$200k); midpoint used.
Screening Rollout $125K
[#27] Initial screening & surveillance rollout costs ($50k–$200k); midpoint used.
Training Program $112K
[#19] Initial cognitohazard/psionic safety program development ($75k–$150k); midpoint used.
Data Archiving $100K
[#31] Initial secure archival and redaction workflow setup ($50k–$150k); midpoint used.
Patient Journaling $30K
[#18] Secure tablets/devices for patient journaling (4 patients ~$20k–$40k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $22.6M/yr
Clinical Trials $5.5M/yr
[#16] Clinical trials and therapeutic development (range $1M–$10M+ depending on scope); a substantial mid/high program estimate used to reflect active trials.
Research And Monitoring $5.0M/yr
[#15] Core R&D budget for memetics/psionics research and countermeasure development ($2M–$8M/yr); midpoint used to reflect an aggressive early-stage program.
Facilities Maintenance $3.2M/yr
[#2] Remote site (Merlin Outpost) operational overhead: utilities, site maintenance, security systems, grounds, insurance (~$2.5M–$4M/yr). Midpoint used.
Staff Wages $2.0M/yr
[#4] Medical & research staffing (psychiatrists, nurses, memetics/psionics researchers, technicians). Estimate based on example mix provided in notes (~$2.02M/yr).
Countermeasure Distribution $1.1M/yr
[#17] Ongoing manufacture/distribution costs (per-dose and campaign costs $200k–$2M/yr) after cGMP setup; midpoint used.
Emergency Response Reserve $875K/yr
[#21] Standing contingency fund for rapid MTF deployment, temporary housing, escalation response ($250k–$1.5M recommended); midpoint used as recurring reserve.
Security Staffing $750K/yr
[#5] Security staffing & perimeter control (24/7) for quarantine wing; estimated $500k–$1M/yr; midpoint used.
Long Term Containment $750K/yr
[#26] Long-term care/indefinite containment costs if no cure ($75k–$300k per patient/yr for 4 patients => $300k–$1.2M/yr); midpoint used.
Amnestic Remediation $625K/yr
[#22] Reserve for amnestic/containment remediation if memetic info leaks; recommended reserve $250k–$1M; midpoint used.
Contingency Reserve $600K/yr
[#32] Standing contingency reserve (recommended 15–25% of annual ops); midpoint used as recurring reserve.
Cover Story And Legal $438K/yr
[#13, #14] Weekly public bulletin/communications program ($75k–$250k/yr) plus annual legal retainer/compliance (~$150k–$400k/yr). Midpoints summed.
Energy Backup $325K/yr
[#25] Incremental energy and backup power costs ($150k–$500k/yr); midpoint used.
Instrumentation Maintenance $252K/yr
[#7, #11] AT maintenance/calibration ($100k–$300k/yr) and containment instrumentation maintenance ($30k–$75k/yr). Midpoints summed.
Supplies And Consumables $250K/yr
[#24] Laboratory consumables, reagents, assays and diagnostics ($100k–$400k/yr); midpoint used.
Screening Surveillance $200K/yr
[#27] Ongoing population surveillance ($100k–$300k/yr) after an initial rollout; midpoint used.
It Support $175K/yr
[#12] Ongoing IT support, hardware encryption upkeep, memetic-filtered viewer maintenance ($100k–$250k/yr); midpoint used.
Psychosuppressant Regimen $100K/yr
[#3] Psychosuppressant drug regimens for 4 patients ($10k–$40k per patient/yr => $40k–$160k/yr). Midpoint used.
Psych Support $88K/yr
[#29] Psychological support and occupational health for staff ($25k–$150k/yr); midpoint used.
Admin Overhead $65K/yr
[#30] Administrative overhead, cleaning, catering and logistics for quarantined individuals ($30k–$100k/yr); midpoint used.
Logistics And Transport $50K/yr
[#10] Recurring per-transport lease/escort costs (lease per transport $5k–$20k). Assumed a small number of transports (~4/yr) at midpoint per-transport cost.
Training Refreshers $50K/yr
[#19] Annual refreshers and simulation training ($25k–$75k/yr); midpoint used.
Protective Equipment Consumables $48K/yr
[#20] Consumables/replacement parts for protective/restraint systems ($20k–$75k/yr); midpoint used.
Data Archiving Ongoing $40K/yr
[#31] Ongoing secure archival and audit trail costs ($20k–$60k/yr); midpoint used.
Background Checks Rechecks $38K/yr
[#28] Annual rechecks for ~30 staff ($500–$2k per person/yr -> $15k–$60k); midpoint used.
Waste Handling $30K/yr
[#23] Hazardous/memetic-contaminated waste handling and disposal ($10k–$50k/yr); midpoint used.
Patient Journaling Support $4K/yr
[#18] Annual storage/transcription costs for journaling devices (~$1k/yr per patient).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $22.6M/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with routine operations, research progress at planned pace, and no major incidents.
no breach steady research pace routine patient care
🚨 Minor Incident $23.1M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized breach/flare-up or isolated structural/equipment failure requiring emergency response, targeted remediation and limited legal/amnestic actions.
localized flare-up small containment breach short-term MTF deployment
🚨 Major Breach $27.6M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure with facility damage, mass remediation/amnestics, major legal exposure and accelerated research/clinical scaling.
major containment breach large-scale memetic leak accelerated clinical scaling and settlements
👥 Personnel 16 total
Role Count Notes
Senior Doctor / Medical Officer 2 [#4] Senior psychiatrists/physicians included in medical staffing mix (costs accounted in staff_wages).
Research Scientist 4 [#4, #15] Memetics/psionics researchers; counts reflect staff included in staff_wages and research program support.
Nurse / Medical Staff 6 [#4] Clinical nursing staff for continuous care; included in staff_wages estimate.
Technician / Lab / Admin 4 [#4] Lab technicians, operators and administrative staff included in the staff_wages mix.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are derived from analyst ranges but the anomalous, cognitohazardous nature of SCP-9016 and large uncertainty around research duration, breach frequency and scale of clinical development make long-term cost predictions uncertain.
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