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SCP-9076 Thaumiel ~ medium confidence
SCP-9076
Expected annual
$10.8M
One-time setup
$12.1M
Annual recurring
$10.7M
Personnel
32
Estimated one-time capital expenditures are roughly $12.1M driven by cleanroom buildout, scaling reserve and contingency; annual operating costs are roughly $10.6M driven primarily by personnel, per-dose manufacturing and R&D/monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $12.1M
Initial Research And Lab Setup $3.0M
[#3] Cleanroom / GMP aseptic production facility setup midpoint estimate $3,000,000.
Scaling And Capacity Budget $2.5M
[#14] Planning/scale-up reserve midpoint from $0–$5M uncertainty for potential capacity increases and equipment purchases.
Contingency Fund $1.8M
[#23] One-time contingency / incident response reserve midpoint $1,750,000.
Research And Development Initial $1.2M
[#15] Initial R&D program (toxicology, PD/PK, long-term studies) midpoint $1,250,000.
Facilities $1.2M
[#1, #25] Reliquary vault ($625,000 midpoint) plus backup reliquary/duplication ($600,000 midpoint) for redundant physical containment and minimal duplicate production capability.
Equipment $918K
[#2, #4, #5, #29] Capture system fabrication ($150,000), analytical/QC instrumentation ($600,000), cold storage and LN2 dewars ($42,500), specialized Akiva instrumentation ($125,000).
Clinical Trial Initial $600K
[#16] Initial internal clinical/approval program midpoint $600,000.
Legal Cover One Time $300K
[#19] One-time major cover-story/foreign payments midpoint $300,000.
Decommissioning Fund $300K
[#26] Decommissioning / long-term preservation set-aside midpoint $300,000.
Training Initial $125K
[#22] Initial SOP and field training program midpoint $125,000.
Lims Implementation $100K
[#21] Laboratory Information Management System implementation midpoint $100,000.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $10.7M/yr
Per Dose Production $3.3M/yr
[#13, #14] Baseline per-dose manufacture + QC + packaging: assumed 3,000 doses/yr at ~$1,100/dose (midpoint of $200–$2,000) => $3.3M/yr; scales with yield.
Staff Wages $2.7M/yr
[#6, #7, #8, #9] Research & production scientific staff ($775k), lab technicians/QC operators ($360k), medical/admin staff ($550k), security staffing ($1,050k).
Research And Monitoring $2.6M/yr
[#4, #15, #16, #17, #20, #27, #29] QC reagents/calibration ($100k), ongoing R&D ($550k), clinical program ongoing monitoring ($200k), patient monitoring & hospitalization ($1,500k), ethics/oversight ($125k), psychological screening/counseling ($85k), Akiva instrumentation calibration ($30k).
Cover Story And Legal $710K/yr
[#19, #30] Ongoing legal/diplomatic/cover story and public/inter-agency liaison costs combined (legal cover ~$550k + liaison ~$160k midpoint).
Facilities Maintenance $406K/yr
[#3, #5, #10, #25] Cleanroom validation/environmental monitoring ($125k), cold storage maintenance and LN2 ($6k), energy & utilities ($150k), backup reliquary/site maintenance ($125k).
Scaling And Capacity Annual $250K/yr
[#14] Ongoing incremental operating costs for scaled capacity / additional QC and staff ($250k/yr assumed as baseline reserve).
Supplies And Consumables $175K/yr
[#12] Sterile vials, IV kits, single-use bioprocess bags, filters, etc. midpoint $175,000/yr.
External Supply Contracts $175K/yr
[#28] Vendor contracts for disposables, spare parts and on-call engineering midpoint $175,000/yr.
Logistics And Transport $125K/yr
[#18] Standing secure transport and cold-chain contracts midpoint $125,000/yr (does not include per-shipment incident costs).
Waste Management $50K/yr
[#11] Incineration/chemical neutralization and biohazard disposal midpoint $50,000/yr.
Mtf Deployment Reserve $50K/yr
[#24] Expected annual reserve for occasional MTF rapid-response mobilizations (average/predicted annualized reserve ~$50k).
Training And Sop Refresher $48K/yr
[#22] Annual refresher courses and field training midpoint $47,500/yr.
Lims Hosting $30K/yr
[#21] LIMS and secure database hosting/maintenance midpoint $30,000/yr.
Capture System Maintenance $20K/yr
[#2] Capture system maintenance, consumables and validation $10k–$30k; midpoint $20,000/yr.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $10.7M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; steady production and standard maintenance.
no_incident steady_production normal_staff_roster
🚨 Minor Incident $10.9M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$230K vs baseline
Localized accidental exposure, small contamination event, or single small deployment requiring cleanup and limited medical care.
accidental_exposure small_cleanup single_mtf_deployment
🚨 Major Breach $11.6M/yr
4.0% probability / year +$980K vs baseline
Significant containment breach or international incident requiring MTF mobilization, emergency production ramp and diplomatic/legal costs.
containment_breach international_diplomatic_response large_mtf_operation
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $15.6M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Mass exposure, large-scale demonic event or strategic emergency requiring mass dosing, major international operations and full contingency drawdown.
mass_exposure regional_demonic_event full_contingency_use
👥 Personnel 32 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 5 [#6] 3 medicinal chemists/biochemists + 1 process development scientist + 1 production pharmacist/bioprocess engineer (total 5).
Lab Technician / QC Operator 5 [#7] 4–6 technicians; midpoint 5 for round-the-clock production and QC.
Medical Officer 2 [#8] On-site physicians (part-time/contractors); count = 2.
Medical Technician / Nurse / IV Tech 4 [#8] Nurses / IV technicians for dosing and monitoring; count = 4.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 16 [#9] 12–20 guards; midpoint 16. MTF readiness/rotation costs are included in security budget but not counted as permanent on-site headcount.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates derived from midpoints of the provided ranges; many line items are well-described but production yield and frequency of secretion (and resulting scale) are highly uncertain, producing material variance in total costs.
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