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SCP-923 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-923
Expected annual
$79.0M
One-time setup
$2.9B
Annual recurring
$47.8M
Personnel
48
One-time setup and contingency reserves are very large (~$2.93B) driven by contingency/reserve funds, capture/termination program costs, and replacement reserves; ongoing annual operations are moderate (~$47.8M/yr) driven by staffing, legal/PR/diplomatic operations, and ongoing research/monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.9B
Capture Program $1.0B
[#16] High-end interception/capture vehicle program (bespoke design, testing, multiple launches).
Loss Of Cover Contingency $1.0B
[#14] Emergency reserve/set-aside for loss of cover / large-scale public exposure and global influence operations.
Compensation Reserve $500.0M
[#4] Reserve/set-aside for compensating destroyed third-party satellites and quietly replacing services.
Debris Removal Mission $200.0M
[#17] Active debris-removal mission (per-mission build/launch/ops).
Asat Intercept Mission $100.0M
[#15] Low-end kinetic intercept mission (per dedicated interception mission design/build/launch estimate).
Foundation Satellite Replacement Reserve $50.0M
[#24] Reserve for loss/replacement of Foundation orbital assets (smallsat/sensor replacement fund).
Equipment $40.0M
[#1, #19] High-end sensors (radar/optical/IR) and dedicated smallsat/sensor hardware (smallsat constellation buildout).
Facilities $15.0M
[#1] Construction or upgrade of a dedicated SSA facility (radar/optical facility footprint and structural work).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $10.5M
[#8, #17, #20] Research lab buildout, modeling tools, and HPC cluster (initial program, debris-modeling tools, initial HPC purchase).
Cybersecurity Hardware $8.0M
[#5] One-time design/purchase of air-gapped hardware, hardware crypto modules, and high-assurance systems.
Secure Authorization Infrastructure $3.0M
[#7] One-time costs for hardware tokens, tamper-proof consoles, and multi-party crypto setup for O5 authorization.
Cover Story Development $500K
[#11] Initial creation of falsified documentation, mockups, imagery, and decoy hardware.
Security Clearance Processing $200K
[#23] One-time costs for high-level clearance processing and replacement of compromised personnel.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $47.8M/yr
Cover Story And Legal $12.3M/yr
[#11, #12, #18, #21] Cover maintenance, crisis PR/media control, legal & diplomatic operations, rapid legal/cover response budgets.
Incident Response Fund $10.0M/yr
[#13] On-call contingency for rapid-response teams, clandestine cleanup, forensic suppression, and local compensations.
Staff Wages $8.8M/yr
[#2, #6, #5, #8, #23] Salaries and fully-burdened compensation for SSA operators, cyber specialists, research staff, and high-clearance personnel.
Research And Monitoring $7.0M/yr
[#8, #17, #20, #25] Ongoing research program costs, HPC operations, debris-modeling updates, and miscellaneous R&D/experiments.
D Class Retention $2.0M/yr
[#10] Long-term D-Class housing, medical care, security, and psychological services for retained test subjects.
Facilities Maintenance $1.8M/yr
[#2, #22] Facility power, HVAC, security, insurance, and routine site operations for SSA, labs, and comms sites.
Orbital Coordination $1.5M/yr
[#3] Liaison and paid coordination with commercial operators, national space agencies, and paid orbital adjustments/avoidance.
Cybersecurity Monitoring $1.5M/yr
[#5, #6] Continuous cybersecurity monitoring, tools, audits, and intrusion detection operational costs.
Smallsat Operations $1.2M/yr
[#19] Operations, telemetry, and ground support for dedicated smallsat/cubesat monitoring assets.
Supplies And Consumables $1.0M/yr
[#9] Consumables and per-test campaign operating costs for controlled tests and observation campaigns.
Training And Clearance $400K/yr
[#23] Ongoing training, background investigations, and periodic vetting/clearance maintenance.
Authorization Infrastructure Maintenance $300K/yr
[#7] Annual maintenance and procedural costs for secure O5 authorization hardware and consoles.
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $47.8M/yr
86.5% probability / year
Normal operational year with ongoing monitoring, research, and maintenance and no major incidents or large payouts.
routine_monitoring ongoing_research no_major_incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $103.8M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$56.0M vs baseline
Localized incident such as SCP-923 destroying a single commercial satellite requiring compensation, cleanup and focused PR/legal action.
unauthorized_firing single_satellite_loss localized_media_attention
🚨 Major Breach $517.8M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$470.0M vs baseline
Multiple high-value satellites destroyed or a major incident requiring intercept mission, large compensation, and international diplomatic action.
multiple_satellite_losses need_for_ASAT_intercept international_diplomatic_crisis
🚨 Catastrophic Exposure $2.3B/yr
0.5% probability / year +$2.3B vs baseline
Public loss of cover or worldwide exposure forcing emergency containment, massive influence operations, and potentially a bespoke capture/termination program.
public_disclosure loss_of_cover global_political_exposure
👥 Personnel 48 total
Role Count Notes
Orbital Ops / SSA Analysts & Technicians 20 [#2] Operators, telescope/radar techs, and orbital analysts required for 24/7 SSA operations.
Cybersecurity Specialists 12 [#5, #6] Continuous monitoring, forensic teams, and intrusion response specialists to harden O5-level systems.
Research Scientists 10 [#8, #20] Theoretical/computational researchers for reactor/weapon modeling, simulations, and HPC work.
Engineers / Maintenance 3 [#1, #22] Facility engineers, equipment maintenance, and launch/ground-support engineering staff.
Administrative Staff 1 [#18, #11] Administrative and liaison staff managing contracts, diplomacy, and cover documentation.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 2 [#10, #13] On-call security and rapid-response agents for D-Class management and incident response.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges and clear drivers, but large uncertainties exist around political/diplomatic payouts, the required scale of intercept/capture programs, and probabilistic frequency of incidents, producing medium confidence.
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