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SCP-9301 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-9301
Expected annual
$2.4M
One-time setup
$5.3M
Annual recurring
$2.3M
Personnel
0.5
One-time capital purchases total approximately $5,320,000 driven primarily by acquisition/outfitting of an M‑Class submersible and potential BSL lab upgrades; baseline recurring operations are approximately $2,302,000/year driven by quarterly vessel charters, amortized capital replacement, vehicle maintenance and mission support.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $5.3M
Equipment $3.6M
[#1, #2, #3, #4, #12] Includes purchase of an M‑Class submersible (~$3,000,000), payload/outfitting (~$350,000), acoustic tag hardware (~$20,000), surface relay buoy purchase (~$100,000), and initial acoustic receiver network purchase (~$150,000).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.5M
[#15, #16] BSL‑3 laboratory upgrade/outfit (mid estimate ~$1,500,000) and cold storage/necropsy equipment (~$25,000).
Contingency Emergency Fund $150K
[#18] One‑time reserve for emergency salvage/recovery and unplanned remediation (recommended mid allocation).
Decommissioning Disposal $25K
[#19] End‑of‑project cleanup, removal of moorings/buoys and safe disposal of contaminated gear (mid ~$25k).
Facilities $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.3M/yr
Logistics And Transport $1.3M/yr
[#5, #6, #11] Vessel charters (~$300k/mission ×4 = $1.2M/yr), mission personnel/ops support (~$25k/mission ×4 = $100k/yr), mission travel/logistics (~$10k/mission ×4 = $40k/yr).
Amortized Capital Replacement $350K/yr
[#22] Amortized replacement/upgrades for submersible, buoy, receivers and major electronics (vehicle amortized ~$300k/yr + other capital ~50k/yr = ~$350k/yr).
Submersible Maintenance $250K/yr
[#7] Regular servicing, depot service and overhauls for the vehicle (5–15% rule of thumb; mid ~$250k/yr for a $3M vehicle).
Staff Wages $80K/yr
[#10] Dedicated research/analysis staffing (0.5 FTE mid estimate ~$80k/yr).
Insurance And Salvage $60K/yr
[#13] Marine operations insurance, hull/liability and salvage coverage (mid ~$60k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $52K/yr
[#8, #16, #17] Battery pack replacements and power systems (~$50k/yr), cold storage electricity/maintenance (~$2k/yr), consumables/PPE per retrieval event listed but zero annual baseline (~$5k/event).
Research And Monitoring $50K/yr
[#9] Data capture, ship‑to‑shore transmission and archive (approx. $10k/mission ×4 = $40k plus $10k/yr archive = ~$50k/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $50K/yr
[#14] Legal, permitting and cover story/public affairs budget (mid ~$50k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $30K/yr
[#4, #12] Annual maintenance for surface relay buoy (~$12,500/yr) and acoustic receiver network mooring maintenance (~$17,500/yr).
Information Security And Clearance $30K/yr
[#20] Secure servers, classified data handling overhead and personnel clearance costs (mid ~$30k/yr).
Training And Certifications $10K/yr
[#21] Training, certifications and safety drills for ship/submersible operations (mid ~$10k/yr).
Consumables And Ppe $0/yr
[#17] Consumables and PPE per retrieval/analysis event (~$5k/event mid); baseline schedule assumes no retrievals so annual baseline cost = $0.
Baseline Estimate Reference $0/yr
[#23] Reference/baseline aggregation provided in analyst notes (~$2.4M/yr example).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.3M/yr
88.0% probability / year
Normal year with quarterly observation missions and no major incidents or retrievals.
quarterly_missions no_retrieval routine_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $2.6M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Localized equipment damage or partial loss during a mission requiring repairs or partial replacement and emergency salvage.
rov_damage partial_salvage mission_delay
🚨 Major Breach Or Equipment Loss $5.8M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$3.5M vs baseline
Total loss of the M‑Class vehicle or emergency retrieval leading to replacement plus emergency salvage, potential recovery operations and urgent lab upgrades if a retrieval yields biological samples.
complete_rov_loss emergency_salvage retrieval_and_bsl_upgrade
👥 Personnel 0.5 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 0.5 [#10] Dedicated research/analysis staffing (0.5 FTE accounted for in staff_wages).
📋 Confidence Notes
Midpoint estimates used for items with wide vendor/operational ranges; maritime operations and anomalous retrieval likelihoods introduce material uncertainty, but mission schedule and primary cost drivers are well described.
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