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SCP-9346 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-9346
Expected annual
$788K
One-time setup
$2.4M
Annual recurring
$746K
Personnel
2
Initial capital outlay is moderate-to-high primarily due to optional advanced investigative infrastructure and an emergency reserve; recurring costs are dominated by staff wages, sustained research/genomics work, and optional mesocosm operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.4M
Advanced Investigative Program $1.8M
[#28] Optional full-scale simulated estuarine mesocosm facility construction (engineering-heavy — optional escalation).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $204K
[#8, #10, #12, #16] Initial PPE/field kits and portable decon station, basic microscopy/pathology kit, controlled-environment chambers/tidal simulation engineering, -80°C freezer/LN2 archival equipment and cold-room consumables.
Equipment $188K
[#3, #4, #14, #25] Small workboat & trailer purchase, continuous environmental sensor suite installation, rugged containment/transport boxes, power backup generator hardware.
Emergency Response Reserve $175K
[#23] One-time contingency fund for rapid incident response, emergency retrieval, and contracting.
Facilities $50K
[#1] Secure perimeter & dock initial upgrades: small dock/landing, concreting, bollards, signage, gated access.
Legal Cover Story And Permits Initial $20K
[#21] Initial legal counsel, permit fees, and establishment of cover narrative/PR materials for island activity.
Training And Sop $12K
[#19] Training, SOP development, compliance paperwork, and initial safety/legal reviews.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $746K/yr
Staff Wages $220K/yr
[#6] Salaries + benefits for containment/research FTEs: senior containment specialist and field technician/biologist (combined).
Advanced Program Operational $200K/yr
[#29] Optional recurring costs if mesocosm facility is built: staffing, utilities, water treatment, and consumables.
Research And Monitoring $106K/yr
[#5, #11, #13] Sensor telemetry & data storage/calibration, pathology/genomics contract analyses, and controlled-environment experiment operation/maintenance.
Opportunity Costs $100K/yr
[#30] Program continuity funds for staff retention, grants bridging, and maintaining institutional knowledge during long-term studies.
Cover Story And Legal $30K/yr
[#22] Ongoing legal/PR/liaison costs, permit renewals, FOIA responses, and local authority relations.
Facilities Maintenance $24K/yr
[#2, #27] Ongoing dock/shoreline upkeep, seasonal clearing, and periodic ecological/invasive-species maintenance.
Incident Response Reserve $20K/yr
[#24] Annual replenishment for smaller incidents, overtime, and rapid-response contracting.
Security Overtime $15K/yr
[#7] Incremental security/guarding costs, overtime and special-watch when visits occur.
Logistics And Transport $8K/yr
[#3, #15] Boat maintenance/fuel for dedicated workboat and secure sample transport / cold-chain couriers.
Waste Handling $6K/yr
[#18] Biological/biohazard waste disposal, contaminated PPE and chemical waste removal contracts.
Power And Fuel $5K/yr
[#26] Electricity and fuel attributable to sensors, pumps, freezers, and occasional generator operation.
Supplies And Consumables $4K/yr
[#9] PPE replenishment, disinfectants, sterile consumables, sample bottles, labeling and waste bags.
Freezer Ln2 Operation $4K/yr
[#17] Electricity, LN2 refills, calibration, alarm monitoring, and consumables for archival freezers.
Training And Compliance $4K/yr
[#20] Annual refresher training, SOP audits, and compliance updates.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $746K/yr
90.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with routine monitoring, sampling, and no major incidents or escalations.
routine_monitoring scheduled_sampling no_incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $822K/yr
8.0% probability / year +$75K vs baseline
Localized die-off, civilian access, or contamination event requiring emergency retrieval, overtime, and extra analyses.
unexpected_die-off civilian_encounter small_contamination
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $2.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.8M vs baseline
Decision/year in which program escalates to build and commission a full mesocosm/simulated estuarine facility and rapid scale-up of experiments.
failed_small-scale_replication commitment_to_mesocosm major_funding_decision
👥 Personnel 2 total
Role Count Notes
Containment Specialist / Senior Researcher 1 Senior containment specialist responsible for approvals, oversight, and field leadership; salary portion included in staff_wages [#6].
Field Technician / Biologist 1 Field monitoring, sampling, and equipment maintenance; salary portion included in staff_wages [#6].
📋 Confidence Notes
Line items and ranges are well-specified in analyst notes, but uncertainty remains around frequency of incidents, optional escalation decisions, and locality-driven legal/PR costs.
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