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SCP-9389 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-9389
Expected annual
$836K
One-time setup
$570K
Annual recurring
$827K
Personnel
11
One-time setup is approximately $570k driven by property acquisition/renovation, contingency, and cryptanalysis/equipment purchases. Recurring annual costs are about $827k, dominated by personnel (guards, director, researchers) and site/security operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $570K
Facilities $232K
[#1, #2, #11, #12, #15, #25] Property purchase/initial compensation, reinforced door/locks, UPS/generator installation, HVAC install, evidence locker installation, and decommissioning reserve; includes structural/installation work and property control costs.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $114K
[#9, #18, #22] Initial cryptanalysis/compute budget and specialist hiring, initial personnel training setup specific to research procedures, and archive/catalog setup for the existing 1,177 files.
Equipment $98K
[#3, #6, #7, #8, #10, #21, #27] CCTV/perimeter hardware install, legacy JOSIE hardware spares and adapters, air-gapped workstations, secure NAS/SAN initial purchase, reverse-engineering/emulation tool licenses, forensic printing hardware, and communications/OPSEC equipment.
Contingency Reserve $75K
[#26] Reserved contingency for unknowns, escalation, unexpected analysis or reclassification; one-time reserve fund.
Cover Compensation $30K
[#16] One-time contingency/compensation to former employees/customers or property owners to strengthen cover and avoid leaks.
Cover Initial $12K
[#16] Initial cover-story rollout costs (fake remediation invoices, signage, contractor staging) for the "mold infestation" cover.
Legal Retainer $9K
[#17] Initial legal retainer to manage property paperwork, FOIA avoidance, and local counsel engagement.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $827K/yr
Staff Wages $735K/yr
[#4, #5] Ongoing payroll, benefits, overtime, and training for 24/7 guards (~4–6 FTE equivalent) plus site director, researchers (2–3), IT/forensics specialist, and security liaison.
Facilities Maintenance $40K/yr
[#1, #3, #11, #12, #13, #20, #15] Recurring site costs including potential lease/rent, CCTV monitoring/storage, electricity and generator maintenance, HVAC energy & maintenance, routine inspections, site insurance, and evidence locker upkeep/logging.
Research And Monitoring $32K/yr
[#6, #8, #9, #18, #22, #27, #19] Ongoing legacy hardware parts replacement & technician labor, off-site backups/key management, (if needed) continued cryptanalysis efforts, recurring training refreshers, archive operations, comms/OPSEC audits, and incident response reserve contributions where they support monitoring/research operations.
Cover Story And Legal $11K/yr
[#16, #17, #24] Ongoing cover payments and liaison, recurring legal support/fees, and small recurring remediation contract payments to maintain the mold-remediation cover.
Logistics And Transport $6K/yr
[#23] Travel, lodging, and per-diem for visiting specialists, auditors, and high-clearance personnel.
Supplies And Consumables $4K/yr
[#14, #21] Consumables and spare parts (batteries, cabling, PPE), plus forensic printing consumables.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $827K/yr
90.0% probability / year
Normal year with standard operations, no major incidents: routine research, maintenance, and staffing.
steady operations no unauthorized access no major research escalations
🚨 Minor Incident $852K/yr
6.0% probability / year +$25K vs baseline
Small unauthorized access attempt, sensor tampering, or hardware failure requiring repairs and modest legal/PR action.
attempted break-in hardware replacement local PR/compensation payment
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $1.0M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Discovery necessitates a funded, multi-month cryptanalysis push and expanded compute/resources (on-prem GPU cluster, external consultants).
promising decryption breakthrough external consultant engagement on-prem compute procurement
🚨 Major Breach $977K/yr
1.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Significant containment failure or exposure (data leak, multiple unauthorized accesses) requiring urgent remediation, legal action, and restoration.
data exposure coordinated unauthorized access municipal/legal escalation
👥 Personnel 11 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 5 [#4] 24/7 on-site guard rotation approximated as 4–6 FTE; estimate uses 5 FTE.
Research Scientist 3 [#5] 2–3 researchers for anomaly analysis.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#5] Senior researcher / site director role (single).
IT / Forensics Specialist 1 [#5, #6] Responsible for legacy JOSIE hardware, air-gapped workstations, and forensic handling.
Security Liaison 1 [#5] Single security liaison coordinating with regional security and local authorities.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are grounded in concrete, mundane line items (property, security, staff) so mid-level confidence; major uncertainties remain around cryptanalysis scope, whether property is purchased versus leased, and contingency needs which create wide cost ranges.
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