🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs
Total: $16.0M
[#7, #2, #25, #30] Permanent and semi-permanent physical construction and stabilization: secure containment lab buildout (BSL-4 / anomalous hardening), temporary site stabilization/perimeter work, replacement/repair of damaged infrastructure, and eventual decommissioning archiving costs.
[#8, #9, #10, #21] Capital hardware purchases: cryostorage and sample vault equipment, high-end sequencers/mass-spec/cryo-EM and BSL-4-compatible lab gear, HPC cluster and secure air-gapped systems, plus initial hardware for anomalous-math mitigation R&D.
[#9, #21, #24] Lab buildout and research program seed: initial instrument integration, setup of secure research workflows, startup funding for forensic / reverse-engineering programs and anomalous-math mitigation tooling.
[#19] One-time contingency allocation / liability reserve (10–25% style allocation) to cover unexpected initial program overruns and emergent costs.
[#6] One-time recruiting/onboarding/sign-on and accelerated training costs for senior replacements and staff turnover following an incident.
[#3] Biohazard remediation and decontamination contractors, HEPA filtration/decon tents, surface remediation per acute site remediation estimate.
[#12] Initial contractor/consultant engagements and short-term specialized vendor retainers (topologists, theoreticians, custom instrumentation suppliers).
[#23] One-time forensic investigation and audit costs associated with initial incident review and root-cause analysis.
[#1] Rapid MTF deployment costs: transport, per-diem, overtime and hazard pay for emergency 24–72h ops (personnel/equipment insertion, lodging, fuel).
[#17] Initial legal/cover-story establishment and compensation for affected civilians, PR and staged records creation to obscure events.
[#14] One-time armored transport/airlift or specialized logistics for initial sample secure-movement events during containment or neutralization.
[#27] One-time major coordination campaign costs to set up interagency cover arrangements and initial reimbursements to partner agencies.
[#4] One-time secure packaging, chain-of-custody and specialized disposal for anomalous/regulated waste produced during initial cleanup.
[#5] Acute decontamination and medical assessment costs for exposed personnel (triage, imaging, prophylaxis) for an initial exposure cohort.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs
Total: $12.7M/yr
[#11] Core ECRG interdisciplinary personnel salaries (Mathematics lead, senior researchers, postdocs, engineers, lab techs): fully-burdened team budget for ongoing research and containment staffing.
[#13] 24/7 armed security and perimeter operations / hardened transport escorts and clearance vetting for the containment facility.
[#24] Multi-year ECRG forensic and reverse-engineering program operating costs, compute cycles, specialized experiments, and suppressed publication/workshops.
[#29] Recurring strategic reserve representing diverted staff/equipment opportunity costs and program-level lost productivity allocation.
[#16] Ongoing counterintelligence, HUMINT/SIGINT monitoring, and red-team activities against adversary groups (Pentagram surveillance/infiltration).
[#12] Annual retainer budget for external experts, nonstandard vendors, and episodic specialist engagements.
[#19] Annual replenishment of contingency and liability reserves to cover episodic unexpected costs.
[#14] Annual secure logistics budget for armored/air transport events, secure couriers, specialized containers, and insurance for routine sample transfers.
[#9, #22] Laboratory consumables and specialized PPE (BSL-4 suits, single-use kits, reagents) and routine replacement of disposables.
[#15] HVAC, redundant generator fuel/testing, UPS, climate control and continuous filtration power draw for BSL-4 and EM-shielded operations.
[#21] Ongoing R&D and maintenance costs for anomalous-math mitigations, formal verification tooling and hardware-enforced proof systems.
[#26] Ongoing personal security, bodyguards, secure travel and safehouse maintenance for high-risk researchers/leads.
[#7, #25] Ongoing structural and systems maintenance for containment spaces, routine inspections, and minor repairs.
[#17] Ongoing legal cover-story maintenance, PR/press handling, litigation suppression and recurring compensation obligations.
[#6] Ongoing recruiting, retention incentives, and continual accelerated training budgets to maintain specialist staffing levels.
[#23] Recurring budget for incremental security, OPSEC improvements, IT security and personnel vetting following incidents.
[#10] Ongoing HPC maintenance, software support, power and secure air-gapped system upkeep.
[#20] Long-term environmental monitoring and epidemiology surveillance (soil/water/air sampling, sentinel testing) at local scale.
[#18] Long-term counseling, trauma therapy, and survivor/family relocation support for affected internal casualties.
[#27] Recurring interagency coordination and joint exercise costs, reimbursements to partner agencies under cover stories.
[#28] Secure archiving, periodic audits, classified record maintenance and backup cycles.
[#4] Recurring costs for regulated long-term storage, periodic transport/disposal and regulatory fees for retained anomalous/biomedical waste.
[#8] LN2/cryostorage consumables, maintenance and monitoring for long-term sample vaults.
[#5] Ongoing occupational medicine follow-up and surveillance for previously exposed personnel.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
88.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with steady-state containment and research activity, no major incidents.
no major breach
routine research cadence
scheduled maintenance
10.0% probability / year
+$1.3M vs baseline
Localized release or discovery requiring MTF response, site stabilization, limited cleanup, short-term investigations and temporary surge contractors.
small-scale contamination
single-site deployment
isolated targeted attack
2.0% probability / year
+$13.8M vs baseline
Significant breach or targeted large-scale attack requiring facility rebuild, program surge, mass remediation, and extensive personnel replacement.
facility compromise
widespread contamination
targeted attack on high-value personnel
👥 Personnel
12 total
| Role |
Count |
Notes |
| Project Lead / Chair-level |
1 |
[#11] Senior mathematics chair-level lead; fully-burdened salary included in staff_wages. |
| Research Scientist / Mathematician |
4 |
[#11] Senior researchers focusing on anomalous mathematics and containment theory. |
| Research Scientist / Anomalous Biologist |
3 |
[#11] Biologists and lab leads working on biological components and reverse-engineering. |
| Software Engineer / Cryptographer |
2 |
[#11] Secure software, HPC tooling, and formal verification engineers. |
| Research Technician / Lab Tech |
2 |
[#11] BSL-4 technical staff and day-to-day lab operations support. |
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges allowing a reasoned estimate, but wide ranges for one-off incidents, unclear exposure counts, and the dual biological/mathematical anomalous nature introduce material uncertainty.