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SCP-036 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-036
Expected annual
$3.7M
One-time setup
$940K
Annual recurring
$3.7M
Personnel
51
Initial capital purchases (vehicles, communications, retrofit, imaging, secure servers) total under $1M; annual operations are the primary driver (~$3.7M/year) dominated by staff wages, air operations, security deployments, political/cover costs, and a contingency reserve.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $940K
Equipment $640K
[#5, #7, #10, #18] One-time purchases: armored/hardened vehicles purchase (#5 ~240k), aircraft retrofit/hardening and mission modifications (#7 ~250k), secure communications hardware (#10 ~50k), secure servers/vault hardware for archives (#18 ~100k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $300K
[#11] High-end imaging suite and research-grade sensors (multispectral/thermal/IR/LIDAR/stabilized gimbals) one-time purchase (~300k).
Facilities $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.7M/yr
Staff Wages $1.1M/yr
[#4, #13, #14, #19, #27, #30] Permanent staffing: site security (4 guards), research team (Level 3+ interviewers, analysts; ~4), cultural liaisons/translators, full/part-time medical staff, ethics/vetting and admin/accounting support.
Logistics And Transport $800K/yr
[#3, #5, #6, #8, #9, #15] MTF deployment and transport, vehicle maintenance/fuel (#5 ~40k), aircraft lease/operation for pilgrimage windows (#6 ~300k), fuel/flight hours and crew for pilgrimage/support flights (#8 ~200k), reconnaissance sorties (#9 ~80k), evacuation logistics for civilians (#15 ~30k), MTF deployment costs (~150k).
Contingency Reserve $500K/yr
[#21] Recurring allocation to an emergency/reserve fund for replacement assets, rescue, legal aftermath, and large contingencies (baseline reserve ~500k/year).
Cover Story And Legal $450K/yr
[#16, #17, #23, #24] Local government bribes/permits/cover budgets (~300k), PR/media control (~60k), legal counsel/coordination (~60k), psychological services/compensation payouts (~30k).
Research And Monitoring $265K/yr
[#7, #11, #18, #20, #28, #29] Ongoing research support: imaging calibration/maintenance (#7/#11 ~40k), data storage/secure archives (#18 ~50k), training/exercises (#20 ~50k), anthropological grants (#28 ~25k), periodic environmental/archaeological campaign funding (#29 ~100k).
Facilities Maintenance $200K/yr
[#1, #2] Site lease/land control and annual runway/airfield maintenance, local administrative fees, and routine runway upkeep (~150k lease + ~50k maintenance).
Intelligence Ops $150K/yr
[#22] HUMINT/SIGINT and covert monitoring of approach corridors and long‑lead detection (~150k/year).
Recon Equipment Replacement $100K/yr
[#26] Budget for replacement/repair of damaged reconnaissance equipment, spare parts inventory (~100k/year).
Supplies And Consumables $80K/yr
[#12, #25] Forensic/biometric consumables and processing supplies plus operational consumables during pilgrimages (~50k forensic + ~30k consumables).
Secure Comm Bandwidth $15K/yr
[#10] Ongoing satcom/bandwidth and maintenance costs (~15k/year).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.7M/yr
92.0% probability / year
Normal year with scheduled pilgrimage operations, routine maintenance, and no major incidents.
annual_pilgrimage routine_operations no_incident
🚨 Minor Incident $3.9M/yr
7.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Localized incident during pilgrimage requiring emergency response, limited asset loss, increased PR/legal costs.
localized_asset_damage small-scale_medical_or_security_incident
🚨 Major Breach $6.7M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Severe containment failure or catastrophic loss (e.g., task force loss, aircraft destroyed) requiring major replacement, rescue, and legal/diplomatic expense.
MTF_casualties aircraft_loss large_scale_public_exposure
👥 Personnel 51 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent (permanent guards) 4 [#4] Permanent site guards (4 full-time) to maintain perimeter and access control.
MTF Agents (on-call / deployed during pilgrimage) 30 [#3] Surge deployment during pilgrimage window; typical deployment size 25–50 operators (counted as on-call/deployed personnel during events).
Research Scientist 4 [#13] Core research team (Level 3+ interviewers, cultural specialists, analysts).
Cultural Liaison / Translator 2 [#14] Yazidi holy men/translated liaisons and cultural advisors (stipends/liaison roles).
Medical Officer / EMT 2 [#19] On-site medical presence during operations and partial full-time medical staffing.
Engineer / Maintenance 2 [#5, #11] Technical staff for vehicles, aircraft support, imaging suite and sensor maintenance.
Administrative Staff / Accounting & Procurement 2 [#30] Administrative, finance, procurement support dedicated to the program.
IT / Data Specialist 1 [#18] Data management, secure archives, and storage administration.
Pilgrimage Flight Crew (contracted) 4 [#6, #14] Contracted Yazidi holy men / crew who staff the Pilgrimage flight (counted as contracted crew present during events).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges but many estimates are wide and dependent on policy choices (leasing vs. purchase, reserve sizing) and uncertain incident frequencies; this yields a medium confidence in the numerical baseline and scenario sizing.
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