SCP-1105 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-1105
Expected annual
$2.0M
One-time setup
$3.4M
Annual recurring
$1.9M
Personnel
19
Program-level initial one-time capital (facility retrofit, specialized equipment, scram system) is estimated at roughly $3.42M, driven mainly by scram-system engineering, duplicated containment cells and research equipment. Annual recurring costs are ~ $1.925M/yr, dominated by staff wages, emergency readiness, and ongoing research/monitoring/compliance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.4M
Duplicate Site Premium $1.5M
[#25] Program-level duplicate-site premium to provision a second containment cell (and many duplicated capital items) — applied as an 80% premium on single-site capital to reflect partial centralization efficiencies.
Equipment $886K
[#2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10, #17, #18, #20] HVAC install, dedicated greenhouse hardware, redundant outgoing filtration, EM coils, EM-shielded CCTV, scram-system engineering + initial chemical inventory, hazardous-chemical storage hardware, backup freezer purchase, autoclave purchase, environmental sensors install, UPS/generator, secure-transport vehicle retrofits (single-site baseline equipment costs).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $325K
[#15] Specialized research equipment (microscopes, electrophysiology rigs, sequencing/mass-spec) initial purchase and lab buildout (single-site baseline).
Facilities $275K
[#1] Single-cell containment construction/retrofit (BSL-3/4-grade sealed habitat, airlocks, reinforced walls, observation deck).
Contingency Reserve One Time $250K
[#26] Contingency / reserve allocation for unforeseen engineering, legal, or incident expenses (one-time program allocation).
Decommissioning $138K
[#30] Decommissioning / sanitization reserve (one-time when applicable).
Initial Legal And Regulatory $25K
[#22] One-time legal/regulatory setup, permits and initial compliance paperwork.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.9M/yr
Staff Wages $1.1M/yr
[#12, #13, #14] Program-level personnel salaries: containment technicians (6), security guards (10), research staff (1 senior + 2 assistants).
Research And Monitoring $200K/yr
[#15, #17, #27] Research operations, equipment maintenance & consumables, environmental monitoring / periodic PCR testing, and ongoing experimental campaigns to study electrical activity and behavior.
Emergency Response And Drills $130K/yr
[#21] On-call hazmat rapid-response readiness, drills, medical readiness and remediation training and exercises.
Facilities Maintenance $111K/yr
[#2, #4, #5, #18, #19, #10] HVAC power & maintenance, filter replacements, EM coils power & maintenance, generator/UPS fuel & testing, scheduled maintenance contracts, autoclave maintenance.
Supplies And Consumables $84K/yr
[#3, #11, #16, #24, #6] Greenhouse consumables & electricity, PPE and decontamination supplies, sampling/analytical consumables, consumable plant-matter replacement, CCTV battery replacements/monitoring.
Cover Story And Legal $60K/yr
[#22, #26] Ongoing legal/regulatory counsel, permit renewals, and cover-story/OPSEC budget; includes recurring insurance premiums.
Scram System Inventory And Compliance $60K/yr
[#7] Recurring chemical inventory, licensing, hazardous-material training and compliance for scram neutralization system (replacement inventory / compliance costs).
Replacement And Depreciation $60K/yr
[#28] Annual amortized replacement reserve for HVAC, EM coils, freezers, pumps, cameras and other capital equipment.
Hazmat Inspections And Compliance $30K/yr
[#8] Periodic inspections, leak detection, certification, and compliance-related operational costs for hazardous-chemical storage and safety systems.
Psychological Operational Overhead $25K/yr
[#29] Staff rotation, counseling, extra staffing/operational safety overhead to mitigate human-factors and burnout.
Logistics And Transport $12K/yr
[#20] Secure transport operations, specialized containment boxes, trained transport crews and chain-of-custody logistics (annual operations).
Training And Medical Surveillance $12K/yr
[#23] Staff training, certifications, vaccinations, and medical surveillance programs.
Backup Storage Operational $10K/yr
[#9] LN2 / ultra-low freezer supply, monitoring, alarm servicing and maintenance for cryogenic spore backups.
Waste Disposal Contracts $10K/yr
[#10] Biohazard waste treatment and occasional contract incineration / manifesting costs (if used) and validation costs.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.9M/yr
90.8% probability / year
Normal uneventful year: routine operations, scheduled maintenance, and planned research activity with no containment incidents.
routine maintenance scheduled research campaigns no incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $2.1M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$140K vs baseline
Localized containment issue requiring cleanup, overtime, limited equipment replacement and additional regulatory/legal support.
small breach or spore contamination event equipment failure requiring replacement additional regulatory audits
🚨 Major Breach $2.9M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$990K vs baseline
Significant breach requiring extended remediation, facility repairs, major equipment replacement, large-scale decontamination, and legal actions.
containment breach with environmental spread loss/damage of critical equipment regulatory/legal escalation
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $6.9M/yr
0.2% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Full-scale catastrophic event requiring site evacuation, full neutralization or demolition, long-term environmental remediation and heavy legal/liability costs.
uncontained spore release across facilities failed scram-system or reactive chemical disaster major legal/insurance payout and site decommissioning
👥 Personnel 19 total
Role Count Notes
Containment Technician 6 [#12] Multi-shift containment technicians providing 24/7 coverage across both containment cells (staffing chosen for redundancy).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 10 [#13] Site security and on-site guards (three shifts plus backups distributed across program-level sites).
Research Scientist / Lab Assistants 3 [#14] Senior mycologist/PI + lab assistants to perform ongoing research and monitoring; centralized research team assumed.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, enabling midpoint-based estimates; uncertainty remains over duplication choices between sites, whether scram-system uses dicyanoacetylene or a safer alternative, regulatory/licensing variability, and staffing distribution — hence medium confidence.
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