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SCP-1514 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-1514
Expected annual
$10.1B
One-time setup
$1.1B
Annual recurring
$10.1B
Personnel
85
One-time capital costs are roughly $1.055B, driven primarily by a reserved emergency interceptor fund and facility/R&D buildout; recurring annual costs are roughly $10.07B/yr, dominated by a catastrophic-readiness reserve, covert liaison/diplomatic programs, and ongoing R&D/tracking operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.1B
Emergency Interceptor Reserve $1.0B
[#16] Reserve fund to hold capacity for multiple orbital intercepts (3–8 intercepts reserve); large one-time contingency reserve.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $24.1M
[#14, #18, #19] Initial R&D program capital, high-end laboratory instrumentation, and hazardous-material/BSL setup.
Facilities $24.0M
[#1] Hardened underground secure bunker construction and major facility upgrades estimated mid-range.
Equipment $4.4M
[#2, #6, #8, #9, #10, #22, #23, #26] Containment chamber fit-out, batrachotoxin collar hardware, power installation, monitoring suites, spectrum receivers, secure archives, cybersecurity initial hardware, and initial spare parts stock.
Covert Transport Initial Securement $1.1M
[#3] Specialized covert heavy-lift and escorted transport, insurance/cover-story costs, immediate decontamination staging.
Personnel Vetting Initial $750K
[#20] Initial background checks and vetting for initial staff cohort (~150 personnel @ ~$5k each).
Medical Facility Setup $650K
[#24] Emergency medical response initial setup, isolation wards, and antitoxin/critical care infrastructure.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $10.1B/yr
Catastrophic Reserve $10.0B/yr
[#28] Annual contribution to long-term catastrophic/disaster reserve (planning-level; recommended lower-bound funding for potential XK-class liabilities).
Cover Story And Legal $25.5M/yr
[#13, #21, #17] Annual cover-up/misinformation and rapid-response budgets, forensic/legal reserve operations for incidents, and diplomatic/contractual cooperation costs.
Research And Monitoring $12.6M/yr
[#11, #15, #27, #10] Satellite tracking and space situational awareness, ongoing R&D program costs (salaries, experiments, compute), HUMINT/SIGINT/OSINT intelligence, and spectrum/signal operations.
Staff Wages $10.4M/yr
[#4, #5, #12, #24] On-site engineering shift pool, security guards/armed response teams, embedded liaison/agent salaries, and on-site medical staffing (fully loaded estimates).
Emergency Interceptor Readiness Maintenance $10.0M/yr
[#16] Annual maintenance/readiness costs to keep interceptor options viable (contracts, storage, periodic readiness exercises).
Operational Black Budget $8.0M/yr
[#29] Flexible covert procurement and deniable operations fund for rapid contracting and cover expenses.
Supplies And Consumables $700K/yr
[#7, #24, #26, #18, #9] Batrachotoxin consumables procurement, medical supplies, spare parts replenishment, lab consumables/calibration, and monitoring maintenance/storage costs.
Psychological Support And Replacement $600K/yr
[#30] Counseling, recruitment, and rapid replacement/reskilling following terminations and high-turnover events.
Cybersecurity Operations $600K/yr
[#23] Recurring cybersecurity/hardening, intrusion detection, and active red-team testing for containment control networks.
Personnel Monitoring And Replacement $300K/yr
[#20] Continuous behavioral monitoring, polygraphs, medical oversight, and contingency hiring pipelines.
Training And Drills $250K/yr
[#25] Regular drills, SOP maintenance, cross-agency rehearsals, and red-team exercises.
Facilities Maintenance $150K/yr
[#8] Fuel contracts, generator maintenance and other facility upkeep to guarantee continuous power and environmental control.
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $10.1B/yr
93.9% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; routine containment, monitoring, R&D, covert liaison, and annual reserve contributions.
routine_operations no_signal_loss no major detections
🚨 Minor Incident $10.1B/yr
5.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Localized detection or leak requiring cover-up, short investigations, limited PR and legal response.
amateur_detection partial data leak small-scale breach of OPSEC
🚨 Major Breach $10.2B/yr
1.0% probability / year +$171.0M vs baseline
Signal interruption or serious containment failure requiring invocation of Onager with one interceptor launch and high-level diplomatic/military cooperation.
signal_loss >36h Onager invoked single-satellite disablement
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $60.1B/yr
0.1% probability / year +$50.0B vs baseline
Failure to prevent Coronet Contingency leading to widespread satellite strikes and large-scale humanitarian/disaster costs.
Coronet Contingency firing failure of Onager multiple satellite strikes
👥 Personnel 85 total
Role Count Notes
Engineer (Level 2+) 8 [#4] 24/7 inspection rotation, fully loaded ~ $150k each; headcount matches recurring engineering wages portion.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 45 [#5] Perimeter/internal armed guards across shifts, fully loaded ~ $60k each; matches security recurring wages portion.
Embedded Agent / Liaison 30 [#12] Covert placement in observatories/agencies; fully loaded ~ $200k each; matches embedded agents recurring budget.
Medical Officer 2 [#24] On-site medics/critical care staffing; matches recurring medical staffing portion.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges but many primitives (satellite response costs, catastrophic exposure magnitude) are highly uncertain. Mid-range estimates were used; high-variance items (emergency intercept reserves, catastrophic reserve) reduce confidence to medium.
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