SCP-1612 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-1612
Expected annual
$2.4M
One-time setup
$2.2M
Annual recurring
$2.4M
Personnel
18
One-time capital costs ~ $2.15M driven by nursery retrofit, vehicles/transport units, and contingency; recurring annual costs ~ $2.36M driven by staffing (MTF + nursery + security), HVAC/energy, and field retrieval logistics.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.2M
Equipment $792K
[#2, #3, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9, #15, #16, #19, #20, #25] Localized inert-gas suppression, initial gas/flame sensors, irrigation hardware, freezers/seed storage, backup power hardware, transport containment units, vehicles, initial waste-treatment setup, PPE, CCTV/storage hardware, IT initial equipment, and initial sample-bank setup.
Facilities $690K
[#1, #4, #24] Nursery structural retrofit, HVAC/precision climate installation, and decommissioning/cleanup estimates.
Contingency Reserve $500K
[#23] Recommended one-time contingency/escalation reserve for large uncontrolled events or required rapid escalation.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $170K
[#13, #14] Initial R&D lab setup and initial analytical/chemical supplies for oil analysis and neutralizer development.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.4M/yr
Staff Wages $1.4M/yr
[#10, #18, #19] MTF Pi-3 operational salaries and budget, nursery research staff and technicians, and additional dedicated nursery security guard salaries.
Logistics And Transport $360K/yr
[#9, #11, #12] Vehicle fuel/maintenance and per-deployment field operation costs plus contracted retrieval/remediation logistics per grove (annualized based on assumed deployment frequency).
Research And Monitoring $325K/yr
[#13, #14] Ongoing R&D budget for molecular analysis, metabolic tracing and neutralizer development plus recurring analytical instrument time and consumables.
Cover Story And Legal $100K/yr
[#21] Legal counsel, permits, diplomatic liaison, and cover-story expenditures averaged annually.
Facilities Maintenance $68K/yr
[#3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #19] Sensor calibration/service contracts, HVAC energy & maintenance, irrigation maintenance, seed-storage upkeep, backup power fuel/testing, and CCTV/storage recurring costs.
Supplies And Consumables $34K/yr
[#15, #16, #22] Recurring hazardous waste disposal contracts, PPE replacement and burn-care supplies, and plant consumables (soil, pots, fertilizer, seed envelopes).
Occupational Health And Insurance $18K/yr
[#17] Occupational health surveillance, worker compensation budgeting, and recordkeeping.
It And Data Storage $8K/yr
[#20] Recurring IT, secure logging, encrypted backups and CCTV retention storage costs.
Sample Bank And Backup Storage $6K/yr
[#25] Annual storage and maintenance for international duplicate frozen seed banks and off-site backups.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.4M/yr
87.5% probability / year
Normal operational year with routine maintenance, staffing, scheduled research, and an assumed small number of field retrievals.
routine_maintenance scheduled_research limited_field_retrievals
🚨 Minor Incident $2.4M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$75K vs baseline
Localized containment incident (small uncontrolled flare or minor nursery fire) requiring overtime, minor equipment replacement, medical treatment and localized remediation.
minor_fire medical_treatment local_equipment_repair
🚨 Major Breach $3.4M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Larger uncontrolled grove ignition or containment failure requiring emergency mass retrievals, contracted remediation, temporary expanded containment and significant legal/liaison action.
multiple_plant_ignitions mass_retrieval contracted_remediation
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $7.4M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Widespread discovery/activation of many groves leading to multi-region eradication campaigns, extended diplomatic/legal operations and large-scale remediation.
widespread_groves multi-continent_operations large_scale_remediation
👥 Personnel 18 total
Role Count Notes
MTF Agent 6 [#10] Core Mobile Task Force Pi-3 operatives for retrievals and field operations.
Research Scientist 3 [#18] Full-time botanists/scientists managing experiments and R&D.
Laboratory Technician 4 [#18] Technicians and caretakers for daily watering and monitoring.
Security Officer 5 [#19] Dedicated nursery perimeter and seed-storage guards.
📋 Confidence Notes
Containment requirements and many cost drivers are well-described (facility retrofits, staffing, HVAC, suppression systems) but the frequency of field deployments and number of wild groves is uncertain, producing moderate confidence in annualized figures.
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