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SCP-1684 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-1684
Expected annual
$36.4M
One-time setup
$1.3M
Annual recurring
$33.7M
Personnel
18
Initial one-time costs are modest (~$1.26M) for ML development, fleet, training and hardened storage; annual costs are dominated by personnel, large legal/contingency reserves, and insurance (~$33.7M/year). Main drivers are recurring staff (ML + MTF) and contingency/reserve funds for exposure/legal events.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.3M
Property Acquisition Per Purchase $500K
[#11] Optional one-time per-purchase property acquisition cost when Foundation buys affected homes (range $200k–$1,500,000+; representative sample value provided as a per-purchase one-time estimate).
Fleet Purchase $300K
[#15] One-time purchase of unmarked vans, demolition trailers, storage containers and demolition gear (initial fleet setup estimate $100k–$500k; midpoint used).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $250K
[#1] One-time development/train/integration of internet-scraping + ML system, labeled data, and initial infrastructure (representative midpoint of $150k–$350k).
Training Program Setup $112K
[#16] One-time specialist training program development for MTF-ψ-7 (setup $75k–$150k; midpoint used).
Hardened Storage $100K
[#18] One-time hardened storage and archival hardware for deletion logs/redaction archives (estimate $50k–$150k; midpoint used).
Facilities $0
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Equipment $0
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🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $33.7M/yr
Emergency Exposure Fund $20.0M/yr
[#27] Annualized reserve contribution for catastrophic exposure/emergency escalation (recommended reserve range $10M–$100M; illustrative annual allocation used).
Compliance Contingency Reserve $5.5M/yr
[#21] Annual contingency reserve for environmental/legal compliance, potential fines and remediation orders (range $1M–$10M; midpoint used).
Cover Story And Legal $3.5M/yr
[#4, #12, #13, #22] Aggregated legal retainer, contingency for settlements/cover claims, public relations and records cleanup: legal retainer (~$225k/yr), PR (~$175k/yr), records cleanup program (~$125k/yr), and a contingency pool for civil cases (~$3,000,000/yr as budgeted reserve).
Staff Wages $2.4M/yr
[#3, #5] ML/ops personnel (2 ML engineers, 1 data scientist, 1 site-ops engineer, 2 content moderators) and MTF staffing/on-call rota combined (representative midpoint totals: ML ~$800k/yr + MTF ~$1.6M/yr).
Research And Monitoring $650K/yr
[#17] Ongoing R&D into non-destructive neutralization, field experiments, sampling, instrumentation and research staff (estimate $300k–$1,000k/yr; midpoint used).
Insurance And Indemnity $600K/yr
[#19] Insurance premiums, indemnity and legal defense reserve (estimate $200k–$1M/yr; midpoint used).
Administrative Overhead $480K/yr
[#24] Administrative overhead (15–30% of personnel budget); 20% of staff wages used (20% of $2.4M = $480k).
Surveillance And Investigation $325K/yr
[#14] Long-term physical surveillance of Hearth Home Realty and investigative costs (range $150k–$500k/yr; midpoint used).
Ml Operations $72K/yr
[#2] Ongoing ML/ops compute, storage, nightly retraining, logging, bandwidth, CDN/proxy costs (representative midpoint of $24k–$120k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $60K/yr
[#15] Yearly fleet maintenance/fuel/insurance and vehicle logistics for unmarked vehicles and demolition trailers (estimate $20k–$100k/yr; midpoint used).
Training And Exercises $50K/yr
[#16] Ongoing exercises, refreshers and training maintenance for MTF (estimate $25k–$75k/yr; midpoint used).
Storage Hosting $30K/yr
[#18] Recurring hosting/maintenance for backups, redaction and archival storage (estimate $10k–$50k/yr; midpoint used).
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
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Supplies And Consumables $0/yr
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Per Incident Agent Occupancy $0/yr
[#6] Per-incident short-term occupancy and sustainment cost for agents moved into affected homes (unit estimate $10k–$25k per house; left as per-incident variable, no fixed annual assumed here).
Covert Demolition Per Incident $0/yr
[#7] Per-house covert demolition operational cost (range $40k–$200k; unit cost left as per-incident variable to be multiplied in scenarios).
Hazmat Abatement Per Incident $0/yr
[#8] Per-house hazardous-material abatement and special disposal (range $5k–$50k; per-incident variable).
Site Remediation Per Incident $0/yr
[#9] Per-lot site remediation and lot restoration (range $5k–$60k; per-incident variable).
Site Security Per Incident $0/yr
[#10] Temporary site security during/after demolition (unit rates $500–$2,000/day; per-incident variable).
Permit Per Incident $0/yr
[#20] Municipal permits/covert permit substitution per incident (typical $1k–$10k/house; per-incident variable).
Cover And Settlement Per Incident $0/yr
[#12] Per-incident cover/claims/settlement costs to handle investigations or pay families (range $20k–$500k per incident; per-incident variable).
Pr Emergency Per Incident $0/yr
[#13] Emergency PR/narrative management per incident (one-off $10k–$100k depending on leak; per-incident variable).
Per Lot Monitoring Cost $0/yr
[#23] Ongoing nominal maintenance/monitoring after demolition per lot (typical $500–$2,500/lot/yr; per-lot variable).
Per Incident Typical Total $0/yr
[#25] Representative per-incident aggregated response cost (typical suburban house aggregate estimate $70k–$250k; left as per-incident variable for scenario multiplication).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $33.7M/yr
67.0% probability / year
Normal year with ongoing operations, no major demolition campaign beyond routine low-level actions and no large public exposure events.
no significant exposure routine monitoring and maintenance
🚨 Low Exposure $34.7M/yr
25.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Limited operational year: Foundation demolishes ~10 affected houses and performs per-incident operations at typical per-house cost.
~10 houses affected routine demolition and cover-up per house
🚨 Medium Exposure $43.7M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Moderate operational year: Foundation responds to ~100 affected houses requiring demolition and cover operations.
~100 houses affected increased demolition throughput and logistics
🚨 High Exposure $133.7M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$100.0M vs baseline
Severe operational year: very large exposure and mass demolitions (~1,000 houses); logistics and urban demolition costs push expenses very high.
~1,000 houses affected urban/complex demolitions and extensive cover operations
🚨 Major Breach Public Exposure $83.7M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Containment/policy breach or public exposure leading to large-scale legal defense, settlements, regulatory fines, and emergency public mitigation.
media/civil exposure major litigation and regulatory action
👥 Personnel 18 total
Role Count Notes
ML Engineer 2 [#3] Two ML engineers to build/maintain the scraping and classification models.
Data Scientist 1 [#3] One data scientist for feature engineering, model evaluation and retraining pipelines.
Site-Ops Engineer 1 [#3] One site-ops/DevOps engineer to manage ingestion, hosting, and nightly retrain workflows.
Content Moderator 2 [#3] Two content moderators for manual review and takedown authorization of borderline hits.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 10 [#5] Ten active MTF operators (rotational) assigned to rapid-response duties; operators count represents on-duty/rostered operators (part of the MTF rota budget).
MTF Supervisor / Support 2 [#5] Supervisors and support staff embedded in the MTF rota.
📋 Confidence Notes
Source analyst notes provide many explicit line-item ranges (staff, per-incident demolition, ML ops) making core recurring and per-incident drivers well-identified, but wide ranges for demolition, legal settlements, and reserves create substantial uncertainty in precise totals; hence medium confidence.
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