SCP-1746 Euclid ~ medium confidence
SCP-1746
Expected annual
$370.6M
One-time setup
$1.2B
Annual recurring
$359.1M
Personnel
933
Estimated upfront capital costs are approximately $1.201 billion, driven primarily by acquisition and modification of heavy-lift helicopters and related equipment; recurring annual operating costs are approximately $359.08 million/year, dominated by aircraft maintenance/operations and personnel. Redundancy, insurance and forecasting/monitoring are material additional recurring expenses.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.2B
Equipment $960.9M
[#1, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9, #11, #13, #14, #15, #20, #21] Helicopters ($864M), reinforced containers ($7.2M), protocol equipment outfitting ($36M), power generation hardware (~$10.8M), protective gear ($1.8M), vehicles/fleet ($9M), actors hiring/training one-time ($720k), smallsat constellation ($12M), ground EM sensor network ($5M), communications hardware ($7.2M), actor/props one-time ($1.8M), site/field kit one-time ($5.4M).
Redundancy Reserve $125.0M
[#22] Spare-capacity and contingency reserve (~10% of CAPEX; analyst ballpark $100–150M).
Facilities $108.0M
[#4] Hangar construction/helipad/secure storage/living quarters per 36 MTFs; $3M setup/MTF -> $108M total.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $7.0M
[#12, #17] Forecasting/monitoring centre setup ($5M) and R&D/safety engineering facility/setup ($2M).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $359.1M/yr
Aircraft Maintenance Overhaul $108.0M/yr
[#2] Major helicopter maintenance, overhauls and spare parts reserve ~$1.5M/helicopter/yr -> $108M/yr.
Staff Wages $91.8M/yr
[#10] Core MTF full-time staffing (pilots, engineers, surveyors, maintenance techs, command/admin, medics) estimated $2.55M/MTF/yr -> $91.8M/yr.
Insurance And Depreciation $50.0M/yr
[#23] Insurance, asset depreciation and disposal reserve estimated ~5% of asset base annually (~$40–60M/yr); analyst midpoint $50M/yr used.
Aircraft Operating Hours $28.8M/yr
[#3] Flight-hour operating costs (readiness flight hours, training, mission fuel & consumables) ~$800k/MTF/yr -> $28.8M/yr.
Research And Monitoring $16.2M/yr
[#12, #13, #14, #17] Forecasting center ops/staff/software/satellite data ~$12M/yr; smallsat ops/data $1M/yr; ground sensor maintenance/data $200k/yr; R&D staff/equipment $3M/yr -> total $16.2M/yr.
Actors Payroll $15.1M/yr
[#11] Actors payroll and rehearsals ~$60k/actor/yr; 7 actors/MTF * 36 MTFs -> $15.12M/yr.
Cover Story And Legal $10.0M/yr
[#18] Legal/PR/cover operations, settlement pools, retainer and staged cover operations ~$10M/yr.
Facilities Maintenance $7.2M/yr
[#4] Recurring site lease/utilities/security per MTF ~$200k/MTF/yr -> $7.2M/yr.
Miscellaneous Operational Buffer $5.4M/yr
[#25] Misc operational consumables, local security and clandestine procurement buffer (~$100k–200k/MTF/yr aggregated to midpoint $5.4M/yr).
Relocation And Repositioning $5.0M/yr
[#24] Planning/reserve for repositioning MTFs, leases, ferry costs, diplomatic cover ~$5M/yr.
Training And Exercises $4.8M/yr
[#16] Localized drills ~$50k/MTF/yr ($1.8M) plus occasional joint exercises (averaged) ~$3.0M/yr -> ~$4.8M/yr total.
Logistics And Transport $3.6M/yr
[#9] Ground vehicles operating/maintenance ~$100k/MTF/yr -> $3.6M/yr.
Protocol Equipment Maintenance $3.6M/yr
[#6] Recurring maintenance/consumables for protocol equipment ~$100k/MTF/yr -> $3.6M/yr.
Power Generation Ops $3.6M/yr
[#7] Annual fuel/resupply and ops for mobile gensets/capacitor banks ~$100k/MTF/yr -> $3.6M/yr.
Medical And Casualty Reserve $2.0M/yr
[#19] Medical care, trauma support and casualty replacement reserve ~$2M/yr.
Communications And Networks $1.8M/yr
[#15] Recurring bandwidth/maintenance for satcom/encrypted datalinks ~$50k/MTF/yr -> $1.8M/yr.
Supplies And Consumables $1.1M/yr
[#21] Site/field consumables replenishment ~$30k/MTF/yr -> $1.08M/yr.
Actor Props Consumables $720K/yr
[#20] Ongoing props/period-accuracy consumables ~$20k/MTF/yr -> $720k/yr.
Protective Gear Replacement $360K/yr
[#8] Consumables/replacement for Faraday suits, grounding rigs ~$10k/MTF/yr -> $360k/yr.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $359.1M/yr
81.5% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with routine operations and no major incidents.
no major equipment failures forecasting and response operate nominally
🚨 Minor Incident $389.1M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$30.0M vs baseline
Localized equipment failure or single-helicopter incident requiring emergency replacement/repairs and increased legal/medical costs.
single helicopter damaged or lost major equipment failure during protocol
🚨 Major Breach $509.1M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$150.0M vs baseline
Loss of an entire MTF or destruction of multiple primary assets requiring replacement of aircraft, facilities repairs, large settlements and mission downtime.
MTF fatal protocol failure destruction of one station's aircraft and infrastructure
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $859.1M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$500.0M vs baseline
Multiple simultaneous MTF failures or broad-area catastrophic event requiring large capital outlays, international relocations and major emergency response.
multi-MTF simultaneous losses widespread infrastructure destruction from SCP instance
👥 Personnel 933 total
Role Count Notes
Helicopter Pilot 72 [#10] 2 pilots per MTF -> 2 * 36 = 72 pilots (covered by staff wages).
Construction Engineer 144 [#10] 4 construction engineers per MTF -> 4 * 36 = 144 (covered by staff wages).
Surveyor 72 [#10] 2 surveyors per MTF -> 2 * 36 = 72 (covered by staff wages).
Maintenance Technician / Mechanic 144 [#10] Maintenance techs (assumed 4/MTF to support aircraft/equipment) -> 4 * 36 = 144 (covered by staff wages).
Medical Officer 36 [#10, #19] 1 medic per MTF -> 1 * 36 = 36 (medical costs/reserve covered in recurring budget).
Command / Administrative Staff 72 [#10] Command and admin staff (assumed 2/MTF) -> 2 * 36 = 72 (covered by staff wages).
Actor 252 [#11, #20] 7 trained actors per MTF -> 7 * 36 = 252 (actors payroll and training covered separately).
Squirrel Wrangler 36 [Article, #11] 1 wrangler per MTF -> 1 * 36 = 36 (included in personnel costs).
Forecasting Center Staff 80 [#12] Forecasting/monitoring centre staff (climatologists, data scientists, ops) supported by $12M/yr recurring; estimated headcount ~80 (budget-derived estimate).
Research & Safety Engineering Staff 25 [#17] R&D and safety engineering staff supported by ~$3M/yr recurring; estimated headcount ~25 (budget-derived estimate).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item estimates and many source numbers, but substantial uncertainty remains from range estimates, geopolitical/leasing variability, and the unpredictable operational risk profile of an anomalous weather phenomenon; mid-level confidence assigned.
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