SCP-1786 — SCP-1786 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-1786 Safe ~ medium confidence

SCP-1786

Expected annual

$2.6M

One-time setup

$11.1M

Annual recurring

$2.6M

Personnel

Initial capital expenditure is approximately $11.1M driven by construction of specialized containment and multiple contingency/neutralization options; recurring annual operations are approximately $2.59M/year driven by staff wages, R&D, security and administrative overhead.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $11.1M

Facilities $5.2M

[#1, #15] Custom hermetic containment chamber ($425,000) plus optional off-grid/subsurface secondary isolation vault construction ($4,750,000). Includes structural work, airlocks, spill troughs, and site prep.

Long Term Neutralization $2.6M

[#25] Cost estimate for possible permanent removal/neutralization (specialized demolition, remote systems, remediation) - contingency if executed.

Incident Response Reserve $1.2M

[#17] Incident response contingency reserve (rapid-deploy funds, contracts, emergency mobilization).

Worst Case Planning $1.1M

[#28] Strategic-level worst-case global mitigation simulation and stakeholder coordination planning exercises.

Replacement Containment Unit $275K

[#23] Spare/alternate containment unit or modular insert to allow safe swap during long repairs.

Equipment $268K

[#2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #22, #24] Desiccant dehumidifiers and controls ($80,000), dry-gas purge / N2 system installation ($57,500), environmental sensors & alarm hardware ($22,500), electrical isolation & forensic metering ($35,000), UPS/generator purchase & install ($45,000), redundant local data-logging hardware ($12,500), and initial secure communications hardware ($15,000).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $250K

[#12] Laboratory analytics equipment and initial lab setup (mass spec, chromatography, materials analysis) estimated at midpoint.

Memetic Training Initial $125K

[#9] Initial development of memetic/psychological training and indoctrination materials and program development.

Transport Crane $30K

[#14] Initial acquisition/relocation costs (crane, enclosed transport, environmental containment for the initial move).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.6M/yr

Staff Wages $1.1M/yr

[#7] Continuous 24/7 on-site staffing: 1Site Director, 4 shift operators, 2 researchers, 2 maintenance technicians; salaries + benefits (approx. midpoint).

Research And Monitoring $364K/yr

[#12, #13, #4] Ongoing lab consumables & contract analyses (~$60,000), multi-year research program to prevent powering (~$300,000/year allocated), plus sensor calibration & maintenance (~$3,500).

Administrative Overhead $350K/yr

[#27] Misc. administration, procurement overhead and classified program management (~10–20% of recurring; midpoint).

Security Personnel $275K/yr

[#8] Armed guards / access control 24/7 coverage (4–6 guards; midpoint cost).

Cover Story And Legal $190K/yr

[#9, #16] Ongoing memetic refresher training and audits (~$40,000/year) plus legal/cover story/PR expenditures (~$150,000/year).

Insurance $60K/yr

[#18] Internal insurance/indemnity budgeting and regulatory compliance costs.

Community And Environmental Monitoring $60K/yr

[#26] Environmental sampling, monitoring wells, lab testing and municipal coordination in case of accidental release (~midpoint).

Logistics And Transport $41K/yr

[#11, #14] Coffee capture, storage and licensed hazardous disposal program (assumed mid-frequency ~$31,000/year) plus occasional transport/move allowance (~$10,000/year).

Facilities Maintenance $30K/yr

[#6, #20] UPS/generator fuel & routine maintenance (~$5,500) plus routine maintenance/spares for environmental control systems (~$25,000).

Red Team Exercises $30K/yr

[#21] Planned simulated failures, drills, overtime and contractor costs to validate SOPs.

Energy Surcharge $18K/yr

[#19] Facility electrical energy attributable to SCP operations including anomalous ~0.8 kW draw and environmental controls (midpoint).

Gas And Nitrogen $7K/yr

[#3] Recurring costs for dry-gas (N2) supply, regulators, and energy for purge systems (~midpoint).

Supplies And Consumables $5K/yr

[#10] PPE, spill-response gear and consumable replenishment (~midpoint).

Data Backup And Storage $5K/yr

[#22] Secure off-site backups and remote storage operations for logs and video (~midpoint).

Communications Service $3K/yr

[#24] Service fees for secure communications/alerting and pager/alert contracts.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.6M/yr

71.9% probability / year

Normal year with no major incidents; routine operations, R&D and scheduled maintenance only.

normal_operations scheduled_maintenance

🚨 Minor Incident $2.7M/yr

25.0% probability / year +$75K vs baseline

Localized humidity excursion or equipment failure requiring overtime, extra disposals, temporary repairs and contractor support.

humidity_excursion sensor_failure short_power_outage

🚨 Major Breach $3.4M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$800K vs baseline

Prolonged containment failure with significant coffee release requiring incident response, community monitoring and partial use of contingency funds.

prolonged_power_loss containment_breach

🚨 Catastrophic Breach $9.6M/yr

0.1% probability / year +$7.0M vs baseline

Uncontrolled exposure leading toward large-scale water-to-coffee conversion requiring neutralization, extensive remediation, and strategic-level response.

uncontrolled_exposure mass_conversion_of_water

👥 Personnel 14 total

Role	Count	Notes
Site Director / Executive Staff	1	[#7] Senior site director position included in core staffing.
Security Officer / MTF Agent	5	[#8] Level-2/Level-3 security guards for 24/7 coverage (midpoint of 4–6). Costs are captured under recurring security_personnel.
Shift Operators	4	[#7] Four operators (two per shift redundancy) included in core staffing and staff_wages.
Research Scientist	2	[#7, #12, #13] On-site researchers supporting analysis and R&D; salaries included in staff_wages and research_and_monitoring budgets.
Engineer / Maintenance	2	[#7, #20] Two maintenance technicians for environmental systems and routine upkeep; costs included in staff_wages and facilities_maintenance.

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates use midpoints of ranges provided in analyst notes; many line items have wide ranges (especially major capital contingencies and multi-year R&D), and the unknown anomalous power source introduces risk/uncertainty in required mitigations.

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