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SCP-1812 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-1812
Expected annual
$268.0M
One-time setup
$3.3B
Annual recurring
$209.2M
Personnel
400
Corrected estimate: Foundation operational one-time costs ≈ $3.317 billion (capital, R&D, amnestic capacity, surveillance, contingency reserves); recurring Foundation operations ≈ $209.2 million/year (personnel, monitoring, censorship/influence, logistics). Systemic (non-Foundation) economic impact of a civilization-scale coastal evacuation is modeled separately and itemized at ≈ $4.6 trillion one-time and ≈ $200 billion/year recurring. This differs materially from the original report by moving global evacuation damages out of Foundation spend and providing itemized contingency and R&D spending instead of an unitemized \$1T+ Foundation line item.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.3B
Amnestic Manufacturing Capacity $800.0M
Capital to construct secure, scalable manufacturing capacity and initial stockpiles sufficient to target tens to hundreds of millions of doses; itemized separately from R&D to satisfy large-cost itemization requirements.
Nuclear Interdiction Contingency $500.0M
Covert contingency reserve to finance state/contractor cooperation for kinetic interdiction if ever approved — contracts, diplomatic/black-op broker fees and leasing of launch assets. Itemized as a Foundation reserve (analyst #10). Not a commitment to use; political feasibility is uncertain.
Probe Mission Design And Launch $400.0M
Design, build and launch of an unmanned sampling/observation probe to ~180 km for non-destructive testing and verification (analyst #9; midpoint estimate).
Contingency Reserve Overhead $250.0M
General one-time contingency / slush reserve for unanticipated capital shortfalls and urgent black-op requirements (analyst #22).
High Risk R And D Initiation $200.0M
Initiation capital for multidisciplinary memetic mechanism research and countermeasures program (personnel hiring, experiment funding, ethical/legal oversight).
Amnestic R And D $200.0M
Dedicated R&D for aerosolized Class-A amnestics (formulation, safety testing, delivery validation) required before any mass-deployment capability (analyst #11).
Emergency Discretionary Influence Fund $200.0M
One-time discretionary emergency fund for rapid covert influence, critical buyouts, emergency PR/cover stories and short-term state-level liaison buys (scaled down from original analyst midpoint; #17).
Space Surveillance Dedicated System $150.0M
Dedicated microsat/ground radar + processing build & initial deployment to assure independent tracking of an ~8 km object at ~180 km (mid-range dedicated option; analyst #7).
Observatory Acquisition Fund $100.0M
Targeted buyout/control fund for ~50 highest-risk observatories to prevent photographic dissemination (analyst #4).
Amnestic Delivery Capability $100.0M
Acquisition/modification of aircraft, tanker/delivery platforms, long-range spray systems, drone carriers and storage/maintenance for large-scale aerosolized deployments (analyst #12).
Security Upgrades $100.0M
Physical hardening and tamper-detection upgrades for top-risk observatories and data-labs (~100 high-priority sites; analyst #16).
Legal And Reparations Reserve $100.0M
Reserved legal pool to cover immediate legal response, settlements and insurance-style payouts if Foundation operations cause exposure or harm (analyst #18).
Facilities $80.0M
Secure inland campus and housing construction/capital to house up to 400 fully-aware personnel, >12 km from deep water; includes living quarters, secure labs, mess and emergency shelter. (Analyst item #2)
Equipment $60.0M
Field hardware, secure communications, dedicated ground-radar upgrades and mobile surveillance vans; includes sensing hardware and secure destruction tools for physical media.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $50.0M
Specialized memetics- and gravimetry-capable lab buildout (isolation chambers, air-gapped experiment rooms, HR-grade imaging equipment) to begin controlled research programs.
Clinical Medical Infrastructure $20.0M
Hyperbaric units, ICU surge readiness upgrades and specialized ventilators for treating 'perceptual drowning' cases and researcher surge capacity (analyst #14).
Secure Data Infrastructure Build $5.0M
Hardened server farms, Faraday cages, air-gapped archives, secure destruction equipment and storage vaults for physical media (analyst #6).
Digital Censorship Development $1.0M
Initial development of AI image-recognition and takedown tooling and deployable monitoring pipelines (analyst #5).
Clinical Personal Gear $500K
Personal field medical gear for research teams (portable oxygen caches, rebreathers for controlled exposure studies).
Field Ppe Kits $500K
Scuba/rebreather kits and equipment for ~50 active field staff (analyst #15).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $209.2M/yr
Cover Story And Legal $70.0M/yr
Digital-censorship operations, baseline covert influence programs, public-science diversion grants, and legal retainer/work to handle takedowns and small exposures (analyst #5, #17, #21, #18).
Staff Wages $60.0M/yr
Payroll for up to 400 fully-aware personnel including senior scientists, MTF/security, analysts, administrators and O5 liaisons; assumes ~\$150,000 fully-loaded average cost per person (analyst #1).
Research And Monitoring $35.0M/yr
Global observatory oversight (236 sites, liaison/inspection travel), leased space-surveillance time when needed, and ongoing R&D continuation funding (reduced to a sustainable annual run-rate after initial capital).
Logistics And Transport $20.0M/yr
Standing logistics, airlift readiness, fuel/maintenance reserves and rapid-response deployment support for on-call teams (analyst #12, #20).
Facilities Maintenance $19.0M/yr
Operations and maintenance for secure campus, secure data infrastructure operations, site security staffing and utilities (analyst #2, #6, #16).
Personnel Vetting And Training $3.0M/yr
Ongoing psychological screening, memetic containment training, vetting and auditing to keep the number of fully-aware personnel controlled (analyst #19).
Medical Readiness $2.0M/yr
Annual maintenance, training and readiness for medical surge related to perceptual drowning events and responder health (analyst #14).
Supplies And Consumables $200K/yr
Training consumables, small replacement parts and routine field supplies for PPE and research kits.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $209.2M/yr
92.0% probability / year
Routine year with containment kept to authorized personnel; ongoing monitoring, personnel payroll, censorship/influence and readiness activities only.
no_major_leak routine_monitoring steady_operations
🚨 Minor Incident $219.2M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Localized leak or single observatory/photo discovery requiring targeted takedown(s), small amnestic administrations and limited buyouts or legal actions.
single_site_leak targeted_amnestic_administration local_buyout_or_takedown
🚨 Major Breach $3.0B/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.8B vs baseline
Knowledge leak reaches ≈1–10% of the global population, forcing Foundation mass amnestic production & global deployment attempts plus major emergency operations.
widespread_public_leak global_amnestic_deployment large-scale_logistics_ops
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $4.4B/yr
0.1% probability / year +$4.2B vs baseline
Public awareness exceeds 10%; article contingency recommends global coastal evacuation and contemplates kinetic options. At this scale, concealment is effectively impossible and global evacuation is a societal action, not a Foundation-funded operation.
awareness_exceeds_10_percent global_coastal_evacuations activation_of_catastrophic_contingencies
👥 Personnel 400 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 120 Senior and specialist scientists for memetic research, lab experiments and mission analysis (supports R&D items).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 120 Site security, rapid-response teams, enforcement of exclusion zones (>12 km from major water bodies) and field operations.
Analysts / Astronomers 80 Observatory liaisons, image-sanitization analysts and orbit/tracking specialists (support to monitoring/observatory oversight).
Administrative Staff 35 Logistics, finance, cover-story coordination and coordination of legal/influence campaigns.
Engineer / Maintenance 25 Maintain secure facilities, server farms, microsat ground stations and field equipment.
Medical Officer 10 Hyperbaric/ICU specialists and emergency medical staff for perceptual drowning cases and researcher safety.
Site Director / Executive Staff 5 Operational leadership and coordination with O5-level oversight.
O5 Liaison / High-Clearance Exec 5 Direct O5 oversight and liaison to ensure awareness limits and emergency authorizations are enforced.
📋 Confidence Notes
This re-evaluation corrects the prior report's treatment of catastrophic evacuation as a Foundation expenditure and moves those damages into systemic_economic_impact with itemized components. Large one-time Foundation costs (> \$1B) were broken into explicit subcomponents (amnestic R&D vs manufacturing capacity, probe vs surveillance builds) to comply with itemization rules. Remaining uncertainties: probability assignments for major breaches, per-dose costs and logistical scale of aerosolized Class‑A deployments, and political feasibility of kinetic interdiction — these drive medium confidence in high-end scenario costing. Recurring staffing and monitoring costs are better constrained and carry higher confidence than catastrophic-event estimates.
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