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SCP-1916 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-1916
Expected annual
$4.1M
One-time setup
$11.3M
Annual recurring
$4.0M
Personnel
20
Estimated one-time setup and contingency costs are approximately $11,331,500, with recurring operating costs of about $4,022,700 per year. Major cost drivers are personnel (MTF and research salaries), ongoing monitoring/confiscation operations, remote test-range and telemetry upkeep, and the potential purchase/maintenance of surface-to-air capability or large contingency expenditures.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $11.3M
Surface To Air Purchase $8.0M
[#15] Option (A noted separately in recurring): Foundation‑owned intercept capability (one‑time purchase of SAM/AA battery). Large capital alternative to recurring military coordination.
Contingency Reserve $2.0M
[#28] Contingency reserve for catastrophic breach, equipment loss, diplomatic/legal fallout, or rapid escalation of countermeasures.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $523K
[#20, #22] Initial scientific research program buildout (lead physicist + researchers, specialized force‑measurement gear, compute hardware) and initial chemical analysis / hazardous‑substance panel sampling (~74 samples).
Equipment $370K
[#8, #9, #13, #24] Initial purchase/fit‑out of 1–2 secure transport vehicles, evidence processing/quarantine bench and camera, initial telemetry/tracking/high‑speed imaging hardware, and dehumidifier/secondary containment setup.
Facilities $354K
[#1, #11] Sealed/tamper‑evident crate manufacturing/retrofit plus initial remote outdoor test range buildout (fencing, bunker, comms shelter, basic ground instrumentation).
Initial Training $60K
[#25] Initial scenario training for MTF/safety/medical drills and exercises.
Subdermal Implantation $20K
[#18] Initial batch of subdermal tracking devices and implantation (20 devices at ~$500–1,500 each).
Inventory Cataloging $4K
[#3] Barcode tags, initial database entry/photography and chain‑of‑custody setup for 738 instances.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.0M/yr
Staff Wages $1.9M/yr
[#5, #6, #16, #21] Aggregated personnel salaries: dedicated physical guards (incremental 4–6 FTE), MTF Xi‑1964 operatives (6–10 operatives), on‑call medical staffing (physician + nurses/EMTs), and ongoing research team salaries (physicist + researchers).
Administrative Overhead $525K/yr
[#29] Administrative overhead/site allocation surcharge (~15% of direct recurring costs). Calculated as 15% of recurring line items (pre‑overhead).
Surface To Air Own Aa Maintenance $500K/yr
[#15] Recurring O&M if Foundation elects to retain its own AA/SAM battery (separate from one‑time purchase cost).
Cover Story And Legal $412K/yr
[#26, #27] Public cover/recall and buyback program (~$300k/yr) and legal/liaison/local authority coordination (~$112.5k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $225K/yr
[#7] MTF operational expenses: vehicles fuel/maintenance, travel, undercover purchases, vendor buyback payments, and evidence transport logistics.
D Class Maintenance $200K/yr
[#17] Food, housing, supervision, security and administrative overhead for ~10 active D‑class test subjects on rotation.
Surface To Air Military Coordination $100K/yr
[#15] Recurring option: contractual coordination with national military for intercept authorization, liaison fees, and periodic exercises (cheaper recurring path).
Remote Range Maintenance $60K/yr
[#12] Upkeep, site security patrols, generator fuel, groundskeeping and small‑equipment replacement for the remote test range.
Research And Monitoring $35K/yr
[#4, #14] Inventory/database maintenance and backups (sysadmin time, digital backups, periodic audits) and telemetry/monitoring recurring costs (data storage, calibration, satellite/GPS service fees).
Training Refresher $18K/yr
[#25] Annual refresher training and exercises for MTF/safety/medical response.
Hazardous Waste Disposal $15K/yr
[#23] Hazardous waste disposal and decontamination (incineration/neutralization and certified manifests) on an ongoing/ad‑hoc basis.
Facilities Maintenance $10K/yr
[#2] Incremental secure warehouse allocation (floor space, lighting, HVAC fraction, site security overhead) at Site 85.
Tracker Replacement And Service $10K/yr
[#19] Replacement subdermal tracker units and telemetry/SIM service fees.
Supplies And Consumables $5K/yr
[#10] Evidence processing consumables: seals, gloves, sterile packaging, filing supplies used during confiscations/transfers.
Dehumidifier Service $2K/yr
[#24] Recurring dehumidifier service and contracted pest control to preserve sugar products.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.0M/yr
88.5% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with no major incidents; regular monitoring, research, and containment operations only.
routine_monitoring scheduled_testing normal_supply_replacement
🚨 Minor Incident $4.2M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$156K vs baseline
Small localized containment incident or equipment failure requiring limited emergency response and replacement of lost/damaged items.
single_container_breach lost_evidence_box critical_equipment_failure
🚨 Major Breach $6.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Significant containment breach or loss of a D‑class subject (potential high‑altitude escape) requiring large MTF operations, public suppression, and cleanup.
D-class_escape public_exposure_risk extended_recovery_operations
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $13.5M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$9.5M vs baseline
Severe multi‑fatality or public exposure incident requiring large contingency drawdown, possible purchase/deployment of intercept capability, and major cleanup/legal costs.
mass_casualties large_scale_public_exposure airspace_incident_requiring_intercept
🚨 Research Scaleup $5.0M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Research breakthrough or safety finding that requires rapid expansion of lab capacity and staff for follow‑up testing and validation.
unexpected_research_findings regulatory_retesting expanded_experimental_program
👥 Personnel 20 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / Guard 5 [#5] Incremental dedicated physical guard allocation (4–6 FTE) for 24/7 coverage.
Mobile Task Force Agent 8 [#6] MTF Xi‑1964 core operative team assigned to monitoring, confiscation and undercover operations (6–10 operatives).
Research Scientist 4 [#20, #21] Lead physicist + 2–3 researchers comprising the ongoing scientific program funded in recurring research salaries.
Medical Officer 3 [#16] On‑call trauma physician and 1–2 nurses/EMTs allocated to remote tests and emergency response.
📋 Confidence Notes
Many items use midpoints of analyst ranges and multiple mutually exclusive options (surface‑to‑air purchase vs. military coordination) are included separately; costs for rare catastrophic responses are highly uncertain but bounded by contingency recommendations.
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