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SCP-2013 Keter ? low confidence
SCP-2013
Expected annual
$1.2B
One-time setup
$2.2B
Annual recurring
$1.1B
Personnel
995
One-time capital costs for global aerosol delivery infrastructure and specialized containment/weapon procurement are on the order of multiple billions USD; recurring annual costs (air operations, staff, legal/PR, research, and consumables) are on the order of ~$1.1B/yr, driven mainly by aircraft operations, fuel, personnel, and international legal/operations budgets.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.2B
Equipment $1.4B
[#1, #6, #8, #10, #18, #19] Purchase/retrofit of ~30 aircraft fleet, aerosolization hardware design & initial stock, Parker-class weapons procurement/R&D, rapid-reaction vehicles/air-support capital, portable gas-scrubbers/remote-kill kits, and initial PPE procurement.
Contingency Reserve Seed $500.0M
[#27] Seed/off-books contingency and crisis-response reserve (one-time seed funding).
Facilities $225.0M
[#4, #13, #16, #25] Cardiff Compound industrial facility setup ($25M–$200M range used), amnestic production plant setup, multiple secure containment facility buildouts, and initial secure data center costs aggregated.
Emergency Stockpile $50.0M
[#26] One-time purchase/stockpile of emergency mass-amnestic doses (stockpile for ~1M doses; mid-range chosen).
Content Production $25.0M
[#12] One-time content/media production and localization costs for public information campaign materials.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $20.0M
[#7] Initial memetic-security / specialist lab buildout and instrumentation to begin safe research and testing.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.1B/yr
Cover Story And Legal $395.0M/yr
[#12, #15, #20, #21, #23, #30, #25] Ongoing public-information campaign spend, forced-administration/black-ops contingency spending, legal/political/diplomatic cover budgets, PR/media staffing and publication support, intelligence operations targeting high-value infiltrators, political-fallout mitigation/reparations contingency, and recurring cybersecurity/leak-prevention costs.
Logistics And Transport $235.0M/yr
[#2, #3, #26] Aircraft operations (crews, maintenance, hangars, insurance), fuel/flight hours for continuous dispersal, and routine logistics for emergency deployments.
Staff Wages $185.0M/yr
[#10, #22] Salaries/benefits for rapid-reaction personnel and core specialist payroll (memeticists, xenobiologists, tactical operators, hazard pay).
Contingency Reserve Replenish $100.0M/yr
[#27] Annual replenishment for off-books contingency/reserve funds to handle unpredictable catastrophic events.
Research And Monitoring $70.0M/yr
[#7, #11, #24, #28, #29, #18] Ongoing memetic-security R&D, detection & surveillance infrastructure, epidemiological/belief-mapping analytics, environmental/atmospheric monitoring, staff training and drills, and incident-response monitoring.
Facilities Maintenance $47.0M/yr
[#4, #16, #19, #25] Ongoing Cardiff Compound operations, containment facility running costs, PPE/filter replacements, and secure data center operations/maintenance.
Supplies And Consumables $42.0M/yr
[#5, #13, #14, #17, #9] Cardiff Compound raw materials and reagents, amnestic per-dose consumables and administration costs, blood procurement/testing costs, and ammunition/ordnance consumables.
Emergency Stockpile Replenish $20.0M/yr
[#26] Annual replenishment of mass-amnestic stockpile and associated cold-chain logistics.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.1B/yr
64.5% probability / year
Normal year with scheduled aerosol dispersal, routine R&D, operations, and maintenance; no major public exposures or large-scale incidents.
scheduled_aerosol_operations routine_R%26D_and_surveillance no_large_public_exposures
🚨 Minor Incident $1.2B/yr
30.0% probability / year +$150.0M vs baseline
Localized public exposure or small breach requiring targeted response, extra PR/legal work, limited mass-amnestic deployment, and additional field operations.
localized_sublimation_event targeted_media_leak field_engagements_with_SCP-2013-A
🚨 Major Breach $2.1B/yr
5.0% probability / year +$1.0B vs baseline
Significant public exposure or coordinated breach requiring mass amnestic deployment, large legal/settlement costs, and multinational crisis response.
large_scale_public_exposure multinational_leak_or_legal_action mass_amnestic_deployment
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $6.1B/yr
0.5% probability / year +$5.0B vs baseline
Nation-scale or multi-country disclosure/exposure leading to prolonged military/political crisis, large reparations, and extensive reconstruction of cover networks.
global_media_exposure coordinated_governmental_challenge large_scale_sublimation_exposure
👥 Personnel 995 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 400 [#10] Rapid-reaction tactical teams and field operators included in rapid-response payroll estimates.
Pilot / Flight Crew 240 [#2, #3] Crew and flight engineers for a 30-aircraft covert dispersal fleet (multiple shifts for continuous ops).
Research Scientist 60 [#7] Memeticists, xenobiologists, cognitive scientists and R&D staff accounted for in memetic-security research budgets.
Engineer / Maintenance 150 [#2, #19] Aircraft, aerosolization, and facilities maintenance staff covered under operations and maintenance budgets.
Medical Officer 40 [#13, #14, #17] Medical staff for amnestic administration, blood procurement/transfusion, and on-site clinical support for containment facilities.
Administrative Staff 50 [#21, #12] Logistics, PR coordination, legal administration and support staff for cover operations and publication programs.
Cybersecurity / IT 25 [#25] Secure archive management, leak prevention, and memetic-safe repository operations.
Site Security / Facilities Staff 30 [#16, #19] On-site facility security and facilities operations/support staff.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates cover a wide range of uncertainty driven by unknowns in aerosol persistence, required dosing tempo, true number of SCP-2013-A instances, political resistance, and contingency planning; many line items are order-of-magnitude estimates.
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