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SCP-2015 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2015
Expected annual
$3.3M
One-time setup
$1.4M
Annual recurring
$3.2M
Personnel
10
One-time startup capital of approximately $1.39M for containment lockers, a controlled test chamber, conservation, secure transport, legal setup and supporting equipment; recurring annual baseline costs of about $3.21M driven primarily by security and research staff wages, detainee custody, PR/cover operations, and ongoing research/field work.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.4M
Facilities $285K
[#1, #2] Nine sound‑proof containment lockers (~$135k) and a dedicated anechoic/low‑noise test chamber (~$150k). Includes installation and basic acoustic baffling/isolation.
Legal Initial $250K
[#17] Initial legal/diplomatic setup and negotiations with country of origin, back‑channel arrangements (~$250k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $200K
[#5, #12] High‑resolution imaging capital allocation (~$175k) plus EEG/neurotech/test interface hardware (~$25k).
Equipment $168K
[#3, #18, #19] Secure lockboxes and tamper sensors (~$18k), vehicle purchases for secure transport (2 × $60k = $120k), and initial emergency response kits/equipment (~$30k).
Covert Retrieval Initial $150K
[#14] Initial intensive covert retrieval operation to locate/seize leaked footage sources (~$150k). Ongoing monitoring is budgeted in recurring items.
Contingency Fund $100K
[#24] Reserve fund for unexpected major repairs, replacement acquisition, or large covert buyouts (~$100k).
Conservation And Restoration $90K
[#4] Initial non‑destructive art conservation and structural reinforcement for nine severely damaged instances (~$90k).
Secure Recovery Transport $75K
[#6] Covert international secure transport from Japan to Site‑20 (packaging, escorts, customs cover) (~$75k).
Translation Initial $75K
[#23] Initial linguistics/phrase cataloguing study to identify activation phrases (~$75k).
Estimation Summary $0
[#25] Program estimation summary / bookkeeping entry — no direct additional cost (summary only).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.2M/yr
Detainee Custody $1.2M/yr
[#16] Secure custody, medical/psychiatric oversight and dedicated security for anomalous artists. Assumed 8 detainees × $150k/yr each = $1.2M/yr (adjustable by headcount).
Staff Wages $900K/yr
[#7, #8] Dedicated security staff (6 guards, $75k/yr each ≈ $450k/yr) and research staff (2 Level‑3 researchers + 2 lab techs ≈ $450k/yr). Includes benefits and staffing overhead.
Cognitive Research $300K/yr
[#12] Ongoing cognitive/neurotech R&D into thought‑control interface, mitigation, simulators, staff screening (~$200–400k/yr; midpoint ~$300k/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $275K/yr
[#13, #17] Leak monitoring, DMCA/takedown/legal team and covert PR/cover operations (~$200k/yr) plus ongoing legal retainer (~$75k/yr) => ~$275k/yr.
Field Investigations $200K/yr
[#15] Ongoing undercover ops, informant networks, travel and local operatives to locate additional instances (~$200k/yr).
Experiment Budget $100K/yr
[#11] Annual allocation for approved experiments (staffing, materials, restoration). Assumed ~$10k average per experiment with moderate tempo (~$100k/yr).
Research And Monitoring $75K/yr
[#5] Instrument time/consumables for imaging and non‑destructive analysis (micro‑CT, X‑ray, spectroscopy) (~$75k/yr).
Emergency Drills $50K/yr
[#19] Annual breach/emergency response training, drills and refresh of rapid containment kits (~$50k/yr).
Translation Monitoring $50K/yr
[#23] Ongoing linguistics monitoring and automated searches for activation phrases online (~$50k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $20K/yr
[#18] Vehicle maintenance, fuel, and operational costs for secure vans (assumed 2 vehicles @ ~$10k/yr each = $20k/yr).
Medical Support $20K/yr
[#21] Staff screening, counseling, and medical treatment budgets (~$20k/yr baseline).
Facilities Maintenance $10K/yr
[#9] Monthly inspections, technician time, diagnostics, small repairs and archival supplies (~$10k/yr total).
Supplies And Consumables $5K/yr
[#10] Routine consumables: gloves, solvents, adhesives, batteries, replacement seals (~$5k/yr).
Redaction Archival $5K/yr
[#20] Secure records, encrypted servers, offsite backups and archival access control (~$5k/yr).
Waste Handling $3K/yr
[#22] Hazardous materials and specialized disposal from conservation/testing (~$3k/yr).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.2M/yr
84.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with scheduled research, inspections, monitoring and no major incidents.
no breach routine experiments ongoing monitoring
🚨 Minor Incident $3.4M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Localized containment incident or leak requiring recovery, repairs, targeted PR takedowns and limited medical treatment.
small breach localized facility damage targeted legal/PR spending
🚨 Major Breach $5.2M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Significant activation/breach (e.g., instance activated inside facility or enabled by a detainee) causing facility damage, casualties and a major recovery operation.
internal activation/breach facility damage large recovery operation
🚨 Political Exposure $3.7M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Discovery of leaked footage leading to diplomatic exposure requiring settlements, intensified covert operations and high‑level legal/diplomatic costs.
public leak foreign government detection high‑visibility media exposure
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $3.7M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Significant research progress that necessitates additional instrumentation, staff, or accelerated experiments in a single year.
major experimental success need for rapid scale‑up specialized capital purchases
👥 Personnel 10 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#7] 2 guards per shift × 3 shifts = 6 FTEs; salary+benefits included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist (Level‑3) 2 [#8] Two Level‑3 researchers on rotation for approval/oversight; salary included in staff_wages.
Laboratory Technician 2 [#8] Two lab techs for inspections, experiment prep and conservation tasks; salary included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates for capital and staffing are grounded in the analyst's line items and standard Foundation practice (medium confidence). Uncertainty remains around detainee headcount, frequency/scale of breaches, and research tempo, which can materially change recurring costs.
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