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SCP-2016 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2016
Expected annual
$1.2M
One-time setup
$3.0M
Annual recurring
$1.0M
Personnel
1
Large one-time costs are driven by contingency/reserve and research/capture equipment (isolation retrofit, fast-response instrumentation); recurring costs are dominated by medical monitoring, legal/cover programs, and a contingency reserve.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.0M
Facilities $1.4M
[#13, #15] Isolation room retrofit and major containment/setup (retrofit one isolation room $200k–$600k; major containment/setup if required ~$1M+).
Initial Reserve Fund $1.0M
[#22] Initial insurance/reserve fund for deaths, disability and compensation (planning reserve within analyst guidance).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $390K
[#9, #16] Sleep-monitoring rig (EEG/polysomnography) and fast-response gas-capture instrumentation (mass spec, samplers, cryogenic traps).
Equipment $175K
[#1, #2, #14, #18, #20] Secure locker and access integration, CCTV installation, rapid-response team kit/training, secure specimen cabinet, secure server & integration.
Policy And Training Development $10K
[#7] One-time development of training materials, signage and policy to prevent sleeping near object.
Amnestic Per Incident $10K
[#12] Typical per-incident amnestic treatment cost (one incident unit cost; applied per affected subject as needed).
Conservation Kit $200
[#5] One-time conservator kit for knitted doll repairs (yarn, needles, basic supplies).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.0M/yr
Research And Monitoring $234K/yr
[#9, #11, #15, #16, #17] Annual budget for sleep-test sessions, long-term medical monitoring cohort, expedition baseline support, gas analysis consumables, and pathology/autopsy program reserve.
Contingency Reserve $209K/yr
[#25] Contingency (25% applied to baseline recurring subtotal) to cover memetic unknowns, scale-up and unplanned escalations.
Reserve Replenishment $200K/yr
[#22] Annual replenishment contribution to the insurance/reserve fund for potential fatalities, claims and compensation.
Cover Story And Legal $112K/yr
[#6, #19] Access control/vetting program costs and legal/cover-story/public-affairs budget for suppressing civilian reports and media.
Facilities Maintenance $96K/yr
[#3, #13, #18] Site pro‑rata overhead allocation, isolation room ongoing operations, secure specimen climate control & inventory.
Staff Wages $93K/yr
[#4, #10] Level-2 researcher/technician monthly inspection labor and partial FTE research allocation for approvals, supervision and analysis.
Psychological Support $55K/yr
[#21] Counseling, psychiatric support and related mental-health program budget for affected staff/civilians.
Logistics And Transport $30K/yr
[#14, #23] Rapid-response deployment logistics, vehicles and per-deployment costs; incident remediation/property repair reserve.
Supplies And Consumables $7K/yr
[#2, #5, #8, #24] CCTV/video storage & maintenance, conservation consumables, chalk-control administration, PPE and evidence disposables.
Documentation And Data Security $7K/yr
[#2, #20] Secure encrypted archival video storage and secure server/backup maintenance for logs, video and medical records.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.0M/yr
64.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine inspections, occasional tests, ongoing monitoring and no major incidents.
routine inspections scheduled testing no civilian manifestations
🚨 Minor Incident $1.1M/yr
30.0% probability / year +$80K vs baseline
Single civilian manifestation or small public report requiring a single rapid deployment, limited property remediation and a few amnestic treatments.
single door manifestation one field deployment small legal/repair action
🚨 Major Deployment $1.9M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$900K vs baseline
Multiple civilian incidents or a larger public manifestation requiring extended field operations, multiple amnestic treatments, exploration costs and reserve draw.
multiple simultaneous manifestations extended expedition/containment legal/insurance payouts
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $4.8M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$3.8M vs baseline
Widespread public exposure or multiple high-impact events forcing large-scale containment expansion, mass medical/legal response and major insurance payouts.
mass exposures major media/political attention large-scale containment buildout
👥 Personnel 1 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist (Level-2) 1 [#4, #10] Covers monthly inspection labor and partial FTE allocation for approvals, supervising tests and analysis (staff wages budgeted accordingly).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are medium confidence: many line items are given as ranges and per-incident costs are highly scenario-dependent; equipment and medical/legal costs are grounded in analyst ranges but frequency assumptions (deployments, tests, exposures) introduce uncertainty.
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