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SCP-2026 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2026
Expected annual
$1.6M
One-time setup
$1.8M
Annual recurring
$1.5M
Personnel
9
One-time capital costs are approximately $1.81M driven largely by an incident-response reserve and lab/equipment purchases; recurring annual costs are approximately $1.53M/yr driven primarily by staff wages, research program costs, and administrative overhead.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.8M
Incident Response Reserve $1.2M
[#18] Contingency reserve for containment breach/uncontrolled expansion (one-time reserved fund); midpoint of $500k–$2M range chosen as a prudent capital reserve.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $275K
[#13] Imaging/microscopy/material-analysis equipment (purchase option). Midpoint of $150k–$400k purchase range used for a modest in-house instrument set.
Equipment $152K
[#5, #6, #10, #12, #22] CCTV and integration (#5), secure locker hardware and tamper-evident packaging (#6), dental chair & setup (#10), remote-handling/robotic manipulators (#12), and initial IT/cyber security hardware/software (#22). Values are midpoints of provided ranges.
Facilities $52K
[#1, #3, #4] Containment-cell wooden lining retrofit (#1), one-time fire-suppression installation (#3), and HVAC/humidity control one-time installation (#4). Estimates are midpoints of analyst ranges for construction and system integration.
Wooden Boxes Stock $35K
[#2] Initial stock of 500 untreated wooden boxes of assorted sizes; midpoint of $20k–$50k range.
Sop Development $18K
[#21] One-time SOP development and initial compliance program creation, midpoint of $10k–$25k range.
Archival Setup $15K
[#20] One-time disposal and sample archiving setup (cold storage, secure boxes), midpoint of $5k–$25k range.
It Infrastructure $12K
[#22] One-time IT & cyber-security setup (secure backups, encrypted DBs, initial hardening), midpoint of $5k–$20k range (separate from recurring hosting).
Sacrificial Materials $10K
[#11] Initial sacrificial staging & containment blocks (initial array), midpoint of $5k–$15k range.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.5M/yr
Staff Wages $480K/yr
[#7, #8] Security personnel (6 guards × $40k/yr each = $240k) and research personnel (1 Level-3 ~$120k + 2 techs ~$60k each = $240k). Salaries + benefits.
Research And Monitoring $430K/yr
[#13, #14, #15, #16, #25] Recurring research instrument access ($50k/yr allocation), bioethics/legal review and board staffing ($50k–$150k), long-term housing/welfare if retained alive ($30k–$120k), translation/linguistics support ($40k–$120k), and directed research program/publication-control ($50k–$200k); midpoints summed to represent ongoing program costs.
Administrative Overhead $225K/yr
[#24] Site-proportional allocation for finance, HR, facilities support (20–30% of direct recurring costs); midpoint used as a fixed recurring overhead estimate.
Cover Story And Legal $175K/yr
[#19] Cover-story, PR, recall campaigns and legal contingency for civilian exposure; midpoint of $50k–$300k contingency range.
Logistics And Transport $100K/yr
[#9] D-class management, medical screening, pre/post care, psychiatric evaluation, and D-class logistics/contingency medical care; midpoint of $50k–$150k range used.
Supplies And Consumables $84K/yr
[#10, #11, #20, #12, #23] Dental consumables ($5k–$15k), sacrificial material replacements ($10k–$50k), archival storage maintenance ($2k–$10k), remote-handling maintenance ($5k–$20k), and experiment consumables/PPE ($10k–$40k); midpoints aggregated.
Security Misc $10K/yr
[#7] Uniforms, armament, and training extras for security staff (~$10k/yr per analyst notes).
Training And Audits $10K/yr
[#21] Recurring compliance audits, refresher training and emergency drills ($5k–$15k/yr), midpoint used.
Facilities Maintenance $6K/yr
[#3, #4, #5] Annual maintenance/testing for fire suppression ($500–$2k), HVAC/humidity controls ($1k–$3k), and CCTV storage/maintenance ($1.5k–$5k); midpoints used.
It And Cyber Security $6K/yr
[#22] Recurring hosting, backups and security patching ($3k–$10k/yr), midpoint used.
Pest Control $5K/yr
[#17] Termite and fungal mitigation inspections and treatments for wooden materials; midpoint of $2k–$8k/yr.
Software And Audit $1K/yr
[#6] Inventory software, audit labor and chain-of-custody recurring costs for secure locker; $1,000/yr per analyst notes.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.5M/yr
89.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with routine experiments, containment maintenance, and no major incidents.
routine_experiments no_breach planned_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $1.7M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Localized uncontrolled expansion or containment complication requiring emergency replacement materials, overtime staffing, and limited remediation.
localized_expansion experiment_overrun limited_medical_event
🚨 Major Breach $3.5M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Significant uncontrolled expansion or breach requiring full incident-response activation (demolition, large-scale removal, euthanasia/eradication, long-term relocation/housing).
uncontrolled_expansion site_level_breach large_scale_public_exposure
👥 Personnel 9 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#7] Six guards to provide 24/7 coverage (3 shifts); salaries estimated at $40,000/yr each per analyst notes.
Research Scientist 1 [#8] One Level-3 researcher to approve and oversee experiments; salary estimated at ~$120,000/yr.
Research Technician 2 [#8] Two research technicians for administration, monitoring, sample handling and translation assistance; ~$60k/yr each.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, enabling a mid-range estimate; however major uncertainties remain around long-term housing policies for sapient instances, frequency/severity of breaches, and whether high-end instrumentation is purchased or accessed via shared facilities, so confidence is medium.
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