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SCP-2025 Euclid ~ medium confidence
SCP-2025
Expected annual
$6.6M
One-time setup
$6.7M
Annual recurring
$6.2M
Personnel
31
Estimated one-time setup and capital costs are approximately $6,660,000 driven largely by a contingency reserve, sensor deployment, and equipment/lab fit-outs. Annual recurring costs are approximately $6,210,000/yr with primary drivers of staff wages, logistics (vessels/aircraft), satellite tasking, and ongoing research/monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $6.7M
Contingency Reserve $5.0M
[#15] One-time contingency / crisis-response reserve sized at the lower bound for rapid mass-media breach response.
Equipment $910K
[#5, #6, #14] UAV program capex and portable evidence collection kits and secure comms hardware (drone capex ~$750k, evidence kit ~$60k, secure comms equipment ~$100k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $300K
[#13] Forensic lab and long-term data analysis infrastructure one-time fit-out.
Sensor Deployment $300K
[#20] One-time deployment of passive sensors (buoys, hydrophones, comms) for long-term monitoring.
Facilities $150K
[#7] Vault fit-out / climate-controlled secure evidence vault fit-out.
Vessel Purchase $0
[#4] Optional vessel purchase (capital) — set to $0 in baseline (operation uses charters instead).
Area Platform Purchase $0
[#10] Optional mothership/standby research platform purchase/refit — set to $0 in baseline (charter preferred).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $6.2M/yr
Staff Wages $1.8M/yr
[#2, #6, #11, #13, #17] Combined personnel costs covering OSINT/image analysts, evidence/forensics technicians, research personnel, lab staff, security/boarding operatives, and contracted specialists.
Logistics And Transport $1.4M/yr
[#4, #5, #6] Vessel charters/operations, helicopter/UAV ops, mission fuel and on-call transport and secure courier movements.
Research And Monitoring $850K/yr
[#11, #13, #20] Non-staff recurring research expenses, lab maintenance, data analysis, telemetry & sensor maintenance.
Satellite Tasking $800K/yr
[#1] Commercial satellite tasking and archival imagery procurement (optical/SAR) for regular surveillance and forensic provenance.
Cover Story And Legal $560K/yr
[#3, #8, #9, #16] PR/disinformation buys & retainers, legal liaison/indemnities, passive dissuasion mapping/notice programs, and insurance/indemnity premiums.
Supplies And Consumables $300K/yr
[#19] Fuel, parts, consumables for vessels/aircraft/drones/RHIBs and small equipment replacement.
Communications And Cybersecurity $200K/yr
[#14] Hardened communications, encrypted satellite links, SOC operations, intrusion monitoring, and cybersecurity insurance.
Facilities Maintenance $100K/yr
[#7] Recurring secure storage maintenance, climate control, and vault management costs.
Training And Exercises $100K/yr
[#18] Ongoing training, tabletop exercises, boarding/evidence-handling drills, travel and consumables for readiness.
Amnestic Medical Response $50K/yr
[#12] Medical/amnestic response kit maintenance, medics, and witness management contingency (housing, travel, NDAs) recurring costs.
Area Platform Charter $0/yr
[#10] Chartering a dedicated standby research platform/mothership is optional; set to $0 in baseline (not chartered).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $6.2M/yr
84.5% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, no major media breaches or large-scale interdiction campaigns.
no major viral media standard surveillance and periodic charters routine research activity
🚨 Minor Incident $7.5M/yr
12.0% probability / year +$1.3M vs baseline
Localized viral media event requiring rapid-response takedowns, emergency satellite surges and one or two interdiction missions.
single-origin viral photograph/video rapid takedown and targeted boarding mission
🚨 Major Incident $11.2M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Widespread media propagation requiring multi-day interdiction, multiple vessels/aircraft deployments, large PR/legal action and significant witness management.
international media pickup multiple exposed vessels/crew requiring recovery
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $26.2M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$20.0M vs baseline
Full public exposure / mass viral dissemination requiring emergency purchase/long-term chartering of platforms, major settlements, and global PR campaign.
global viral exposure legal/political fallout requiring large settlements
👥 Personnel 31 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 Boarding teams and on-site security for interdiction and evidence seizures. [#17]
Maritime Crew (contractors) 6 Crew for chartered vessels / RHIB operators; often contractor-hired. [#4, #17]
Research Scientist 4 Philosophers, cognitive scientists, oceanographers and technical researchers supporting characterization. [#11, #17]
Image / OSINT Analyst 6 Social-media and image analysts performing scraping, geo-forensics, and takedowns. [#2, #17]
Forensic Technician 2 Digital/optical evidence collection and lab technicians for on-site seizure and lab processing. [#6, #13]
PR / Legal / Administrative Staff 4 Covert PR retainer managers, legal liaison, contract managers for carrier/flag-state coordination. [#3, #8, #16, #17]
Engineer / Maintenance 2 Vessel/aircraft/drone and sensor maintenance staff (on-call/contract). [#5, #19, #20]
Medical Officer 1 Field medic and witness management medical oversight (amnestic administration contingency). [#12]
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, enabling a reasoned estimate, but the anomalous nature of SCP-2025 and optional capital choices (vessels/platforms, contingency usage) produce uncertainty in scenario probabilities and capital decisions.
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