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SCP-2086 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-2086
Expected annual
$12.9M
One-time setup
$26.4M
Annual recurring
$11.1M
Personnel
40
Estimated one-time capital costs of $26.37M driven primarily by hangar retrofits, an R&D kickoff, and a large incident-response reserve; recurring operating costs are roughly $11.14M/yr driven by staff wages, demolition/EOD operations, and cover-story/legal/media suppression.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $26.4M
Incident Response Reserve $10.0M
[#24] One-time contingency reserve for major containment failure / national-level mobilization.
R And D Program $8.0M
[#14] Initial multi-year R&D program funding (pheromone/sterilant/biocontrol development).
Facilities $5.0M
[#4] Hangar retrofit and structural containment upgrades.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.0M
[#7, #13, #15] Cold storage/pathology rooms & freezers (#7), lab instrument upgrades (#13), forensic imaging facility adaptation (#15).
Heavy Lift Purchase $1.0M
[#8] Option to purchase heavy-lift vehicles/cranes instead of contracting.
Equipment $850K
[#5, #11, #6, #10] Specimen restraints and handling (#5), initial PPE kit (#11), HVAC/air-scrubber install (#6), surveillance hardware setup (#10).
Specialized Neutralizer Development $400K
[#26] Development and initial stockpile of neutralizing immobilizers/sedatives.
Training Setup $100K
[#21] Initial simulation/training facility and program setup.
Data Storage Setup $20K
[#28] Secure archive setup and initial redaction systems.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $11.1M/yr
Staff Wages $3.4M/yr
[#1, #2, #9, #13, #29] Salaries for intelligence analysts (#1), field response agents (#2), perimeter guards (#9), research staff (#13), and psyops specialists (#29).
Cover Story And Legal $2.0M/yr
[#18, #19, #20, #27] Media suppression and info-ops (#18), legal/diplomatic/permitting baseline (#19), victim compensation/staged-accident baseline (#20), community liaison/false infrastructure (#27).
Research And Monitoring $1.8M/yr
[#1, #13, #14, #25, #15, #28] Monitoring software/subscriptions (#1), lab consumables (#13), R&D follow-up/yearly costs (#14), periodic containment modelling (#25), outsourced forensic imaging & consumables (#15), secure data storage operations (#28).
Demolition Operations $1.0M/yr
[#3] Rapid demolition/EOD operations (~10 demolitions/yr at ~$100k each).
Insurance Reserve Contribution $1.0M/yr
[#25] Annual contribution to insurance/financial reserve and actuarial modelling costs.
Logistics And Transport $500K/yr
[#2, #8] Field team vehicles/fuel/maintenance (#2) and contracted heavy-lift/transport moves (~10/yr) (#8).
Facilities Maintenance $480K/yr
[#6, #10, #9, #23, #7] HVAC maintenance and electricity (#6), surveillance maintenance (#10), security vehicles/equipment upkeep (#9), site energy/HVAC power (#23), cold-storage maintenance (#7).
Hazardous Waste Disposal $200K/yr
[#16] Incineration, hazardous-waste landfill fees, ash handling and covert disposal costs.
Environmental Remediation $200K/yr
[#17] Soil/air/water testing and cleanup contingency for demolition/release sites.
Misc Contingency $200K/yr
[#30] Miscellaneous unpredictable costs: specialist consults, travel surges, urgent replacements.
Supplies And Consumables $170K/yr
[#11, #22, #26] PPE replacement and consumables (#11), fuel/consumables and workshop spares (#22), neutralizer replacement stock (#26).
Training And Drills $150K/yr
[#21] Recurring training programs, simulations, and drills.
Medical Care And Occupational Health $100K/yr
[#12] Medical care, post-exposure monitoring, and occupational health for staff.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $11.1M/yr
65.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with expected cadence of monitoring, demolitions (~10/yr), routine R&D follow-up and no major public exposure.
routine_demolitions steady_monitoring no_major_breach
🚨 Minor Incident $12.7M/yr
25.0% probability / year +$1.6M vs baseline
One or more higher-profile colony discoveries requiring additional demolitions, increased media ops and legal payouts but no widescale containment failure.
high_profile_colony multiple_additional_demolitions localized_public_exposure
🚨 Major Breach $25.1M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$14.0M vs baseline
Large containment failure or mass colony establishment that requires national-level mobilization, mass demolitions, and extensive remediation/cover-up operations.
widespread_release mass_demolitions national_cover-up
👥 Personnel 40 total
Role Count Notes
Intelligence Analyst 3 [#1] Analysts for monitoring and media/social feed scraping; salaries included in staff_wages.
Field Response Agent 16 [#2] Four rotating teams of four agents; salaries included in staff_wages.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#9] 24/7 perimeter guards across shifts; salaries included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist / Technician 6 [#13] Entomologists, physiologists, pathologists and techs; salaries included in staff_wages.
PsyOps / InfoOps Specialist 3 [#29] Psychological operations and long-term rumor control staff; salaries included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Many line items are explicitly estimated in analyst notes (medium confidence), but incident frequency, demolition tempo, and choice between contracting vs purchasing heavy equipment create material uncertainty.
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