SCP-2138 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2138
Expected annual
$306K
One-time setup
$326K
Annual recurring
$294K
Personnel
4
Estimated one-time capital/setup costs are $326,500 driven primarily by a contingency reserve and specialized containment/build‑out; recurring annual costs are ~$294,000 driven mainly by personnel wages, legal/OPSEC, IT/support, and program overhead.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $326K
Contingency Reserve $175K
[#16] Establish on‑hand incident/liability reserve (midpoint of recommended $100,000–$250,000).
Facilities $70K
[#3, #9] HVAC negative-pressure cabinet / mini-room modifications ($40,000) and quarantine/isolation room fit-out ($30,000).
Equipment $54K
[#1, #2, #4, #12, #14] Pressure-rated canister and welded fittings ($25,000), pressure sensors/datalogger and installation ($6,500), industrial vacuum purchase/setup ($15,000), UPS and integration ($3,000), secure server setup ($5,000).
Legal And Opsec Setup $10K
[#15] Initial legal/OPSEC setup and cover-story preparation budget.
Ppe Initial Stock $5K
[#5] Initial stock of respirators, suits, gloves, spare seals/gaskets, filter cartridges, disposable waste bags.
Secure Data Archival And Destruction $5K
[#18] Secure archiving, redaction or secure destruction of pre-existing research materials and evidence logs.
Background Checks $4K
[#6] Background/clearance costs for two dedicated operators ($2,000 per person one-time).
Initial Training Program Setup $3K
[#8] Initial training program development and documentation setup.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $294K/yr
Staff Wages $199K/yr
[#6, #7, #17] Two full-time Level-1 operators (2 × $40k + benefits ≈ included in $104,000), one security FTE ($65,000), IT/insider-threat staffing/tools ($30,000).
Research And Monitoring $26K/yr
[#2, #8, #10, #13, #14] Sensor calibration and leak-testing ($3,500/yr includes #2 and #13), recurring training/exercises ($5,000/yr), routine medical monitoring ($5,000/yr), IT support and periodic audits ($12,000/yr).
Program Management Overhead $25K/yr
[#21] Procurement, contracting, insurance, accounting and administrative overhead (~10% of recurring operating budget).
Cover Story And Legal $20K/yr
[#15] Ongoing legal counsel, HR support, cover-story/OPSEC and contingency for regulatory inquiries.
Facilities Maintenance $14K/yr
[#3, #4, #9, #12] HVAC electricity and filter replacement ($1,000/yr), vacuum maintenance/filters ($1,500/yr), quarantine readiness/maintenance ($10,000/yr), UPS battery replacement and testing ($1,000/yr) — summed here.
Opportunity Cost $9K/yr
[#19] Internal charge for dedicated locker and nearby workspace (nominal lab footprint occupancy cost).
Supplies And Consumables $2K/yr
[#5, #11] PPE replenishment/consumables rotation ($1,000/yr) and routine waste disposal ($1,000/yr).
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[]
Quarantine Per Exposure Event $0/yr
[#9] Per-exposure quarantine cost ~ $7,000 per person per 14-day event (tracked as per-event contingency; not annualized here).
Medical Followup Per Exposure Cost $0/yr
[#10] Per-exposed-person medical/psych follow-up ~$2,000–$10,000 depending on duration (per-event).
Per Breach Cleanup Cost $0/yr
[#11] Per-breach cleanup/disposal cost ~$1,000–$5,000 depending on scale (per-incident).
Catastrophic Breach Per Incident $0/yr
[#20] Worst-case multi-site/site-level catastrophic response budget estimated $1,000,000–$10,000,000+ (per-incident contingency).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $294K/yr
93.9% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with routine operations, maintenance, and no containment incidents.
routine_operations no_exposures scheduled_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $324K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$30K vs baseline
Single-person exposure or small localized leak requiring quarantine, medical follow-up and limited cleanup.
single_staff_exposure limited_cleanup short_quarantine
🚨 Major Breach $794K/yr
1.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Multi-person exposure, site-level quarantine, substantial amnestic/legal/PR costs and expanded cleanup/monitoring.
multi_person_exposure site_wide_quarantine amnestic_campaign
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $5.3M/yr
0.1% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Widespread exposure and public/political exposure requiring multi-site response, mass amnestics, litigation, and long-term remediation.
widespread_exposure public_exposure multi_site_response
👥 Personnel 4 total
Role Count Notes
Level-1 Operator 2 [#6] Two full-time operators trained for containment openings, vacuum operations, routine checks and alarm response.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 1 [#7] One dedicated security FTE responsible for locker area and after-hours alarm monitoring.
Insider-threat Analyst / IT Security 1 [#17] One staffer (or equivalent contracted FTE) to monitor communications, enforce compartmentalization, and manage insider-risk tooling.
📋 Confidence Notes
Line-item estimates are based on explicit analyst notes and site-level assumptions, so capital and recurring categories are reasonably well defined; uncertainty remains around incident frequency, per-exposure medical/amnestic costs and the size of contingency/reserve needs which drives medium confidence.
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