SCP-2162 — SCP-2162 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-2162 Keter ~ medium confidence

SCP-2162

Expected annual

$219.5M

One-time setup

$1.4B

Annual recurring

$194.5M

Personnel

385

One-time capital purchases (vessels, satellites, reserves, and resettlement contingencies) drive costs into the billions, while baseline recurring operations (ships, aviation, surveillance, staff, and contingency budgets) are roughly $195M/year.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.4B

Equipment $532.0M

[#1, #4, #5, #6, #14, #16, #26] Vessel procurement/retrofit, UAV fleet, purchase of satellites, sensor buoys, PPE hardware, secure-communications hardware, initial comms integration.

Long Term Resettlement Capital $500.0M

[#25] Capital for potential long-term strategic relocation/resettlement programs (order-of-magnitude seed if enacted).

Rapid Response Reserve $200.0M

[#28] Rapid-response budget hold / contingency for mass-casualty worst-case mobilization (one-time reserved funding).

Reserve Seed $100.0M

[#21] Seed contingency/insurance reserve fund (one-time seed).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $35.0M

[#7, #9, #10] Mobile atmospheric labs, HPC/software and initial experimental mitigation capital (prototype equipment/lab setup).

Facilities $20.0M

[#15] Coastal/hardened covert HQ build/retrofit.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $194.5M/yr

Staff Wages $32.0M/yr

[#2, #8] Salaries and benefits for MTF personnel and a portion of ship crewing costs (split from ship op line-item).

Compensation Contingency $25.0M/yr

[#19] Annual contingency for compensation/indemnities to commercial shipping and fisheries.

Evacuee Sustainment $25.0M/yr

[#12] Temporary shelter, food, water, medical care and sustainment for evacuees (budgeted per-year contingency / expected events).

Research And Monitoring $21.0M/yr

[#9, #10] Scientific staffing, modelling, and ongoing experimental mitigation program operations.

Ship Operational Non Salary $21.0M/yr

[#2] Non-salary ship operational costs: fuel, maintenance, spare parts, major overhauls (portion of #2 not included in staff_wages).

Aviation Surveillance $12.0M/yr

[#3] Manned maritime patrol aircraft/helicopter operations, crews, flight hours, maintenance.

Logistics And Transport $11.0M/yr

[#11, #26] Evacuation transport staging budgets, liaison/systems to contact/comms with commercial maritime traffic (operational portion).

Satellite Tasking Commercial $10.0M/yr

[#5] Commercial satellite tasking / imagery subscription (if not using Foundation-owned assets).

Reserve Replenish $10.0M/yr

[#21] Annual replenishment targets for contingency/insurance reserve.

Facilities Maintenance $5.0M/yr

[#6, #15] Servicing/maintenance of sensor buoys and HQ facility operations/maintenance.

Economic Relief $5.0M/yr

[#20] Economic relief payments to impacted local economies (tourism, ports) as ongoing programing.

Asset Replacement $5.0M/yr

[#24] Replacement budget for lost/damaged small craft, buoys, drones, coastal installations.

Cover Story And Legal $4.0M/yr

[#17, #18] Legal/diplomatic liaison, interagency coordination, ongoing cover-story media/PR monitoring.

Uav Operations $2.5M/yr

[#4] Long-endurance drone operations, maintenance, operators (recurring ops for UAV fleet).

Medical Preparedness $2.0M/yr

[#13] Hospital surge capacity, emergency oxygen systems, medevac readiness and stockpiles.

Secure Communications $1.5M/yr

[#16] Ongoing encrypted comms, bandwidth, cyber-security operations to prevent leaks and maintain control.

Training And Exercises $1.0M/yr

[#23] Ongoing training, drills, simulated evacuations and interagency exercises.

Supplies And Consumables $800K/yr

[#7, #14] Mobile-lab consumables and PPE consumables/filters/oxygen supplies.

Public Health Surveillance $500K/yr

[#27] Environmental and public-health monitoring for ecological and human impacts.

Data Storage $200K/yr

[#22] Secure data archival, storage, and classified analysis costs.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $194.5M/yr

88.0% probability / year

Normal operational year with routine monitoring, two ships on-station, routine maintenance, science, and PR; no major evacuations or breaches.

steady monitoring no landfall on inhabited islands only routine deployments

🚨 Minor Incident $284.5M/yr

10.0% probability / year +$90.0M vs baseline

Localized landfall or near-shore pass requiring a single large evacuation and short-term sustainment (one medium-scale event).

predicted landfall on small populated island single large evacuation (≈50k) temporary shelters and compensation

🚨 Major Breach $994.5M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$800.0M vs baseline

Major unexpected landfall(s) in populated regions causing multiple evacuations, mass-casualty response, large indemnities, drawdown of rapid-response reserves, and acceleration of long-term mitigation/resettlement measures.

unpredicted course change into populated coastlines multiple simultaneous landfalls mass-casualty and long-term resettlement

👥 Personnel 385 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent / Sailors	300	[#1, #2, #8] MTF θ-5 patrol crews, shipboard sailors and marines required for two on-station vessels plus rotation pool.
Research Scientist	30	[#9, #10] Atmospheric chemists, modelers, physicists and engineers on ongoing research and mitigation projects.
Engineer / Maintenance	20	[#1, #6, #24] Engineers for vessel/booster/ buoy maintenance and asset repair/replacement.
UAV / Drone Operators	10	[#4] Long-endurance drone operators and technicians.
Pilots / Aviation Crew	8	[#3] Crews for maritime patrol aircraft/helicopters.
Administrative Staff	12	[#15, #17, #18] HQ administrative, legal/diplomatic liaisons, PR coordination and interagency staff.
Medical Officer	5	[#13, #12] Medical readiness, medevac coordination and public-health surveillance liaisons.

📋 Confidence Notes

Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges and clear operational drivers, but wide ranges on many capital items (vessel procurement, satellites, resettlement) and uncertainty about incident frequency reduce precision.

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