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SCP-2186 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2186
Expected annual
$652K
One-time setup
$1.9M
Annual recurring
$646K
Personnel
4
First-year one-time capital and containment setup is dominated by contingency reserves and facility/refit costs (~$1.9M one-time). Recurring costs (~$646k/yr) are driven by staff wages, research, and ongoing maintenance/operational budgets.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.9M
Contingency Fund $1.1M
[#22] One-time seed contingency recommended to rebuild/replace infrastructure after catastrophic events (midpoint of recommended reserve).
Facilities $390K
[#6, #7, #17] Containment room/refit, segregated utility routing and HVAC/isolation one-time installation (midpoint estimates).
Equipment $284K
[#1, #2, #5, #8, #10, #12, #13, #18, #24, #25] Primary terrarium, environmental control hardware, robotic manipulator purchase/integration, UPS/generator, access hardware, PPE initial kits, bio-bins/refrigeration, redundant data routing, transport container and initial sacrificial inventory (midpoint estimates).
Electrical Replacement Reserve $80K
[#16] One-time reserve for anticipated electrical/electronic replacements following exposure/damage (midpoint estimate).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $40K
[#4, #11] Initial veterinary examinations/imaging and emergency stock plus consultant/protocol development and SOP drafting one-time costs.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $646K/yr
Staff Wages $300K/yr
[#9, #10] Emergency response team (2–4 FTE; modeled at 3 FTE) and baseline site security staffing (modeled at 1 FTE). Includes salaries, benefits, on-call/standby pay.
Research And Monitoring $175K/yr
[#19] Annual scientific/research budget (histology, genomics, biochemistry, sample maintenance). This estimate excludes research personnel salaries (covered in staff_wages).
Cover Story And Legal $55K/yr
[#20] Insurance, legal, regulatory compliance and baseline public-affairs/cover-story budget (annual policy/retainer estimate).
Administrative Overhead $25K/yr
[#28] Purchasing, secure recordkeeping, inventory management and general program administrative costs.
Training And Sop $18K/yr
[#23] Ongoing staff training, SOP development, documentation upkeep, and drills beyond emergency_drills.
Logistics And Transport $18K/yr
[#24, #27] Transport readiness/vehicle maintenance and periodic inspection/monitoring of adjacent assets (drone/robotic surveys).
Facilities Maintenance $14K/yr
[#2, #8, #13, #17] Ongoing maintenance: environmental monitoring upkeep, backup power fuel/maintenance, bio-waste handling maintenance, HVAC filter/replacement and service.
Robotic Maintenance $12K/yr
[#5] Annual maintenance, calibration and spare parts for remote handling/robotic manipulator.
Supplies And Consumables $12K/yr
[#3, #12, #25] Habitat consumables (food, substrate, bulbs), PPE replacement/consumables, and replacement of sacrificial inventory stock.
Emergency Drills $10K/yr
[#11] Annual tabletop/exercise costs, consultant updates and procedural refreshes.
Veterinary Care $8K/yr
[#4] Ongoing veterinary examinations, routine meds and consumables (recurring portion of item #4).
Disposal Per Incident $0/yr
[#14] Per-incident licensed biohazard disposal costs ($3–$7/kg; typical clean-up $300–$14,000; large incident $25k–$200k). Set to $0 baseline; modeled in scenarios as incident deltas.
Structural Remediation Per Incident $0/yr
[#15] Structural demolition/repairs after stage-2 transformation (per-incident $50k–$1,000,000+). Set to $0 baseline; modeled in scenarios.
Cover Story Contingency Per Incident $0/yr
[#21] Cover/PR per-incident contingency ($5k–$50k per incident). Set to $0 baseline; used in incident scenarios.
Incident Mobilization Per Incident $0/yr
[#26] Contracted hazmat/rapid-mobilization retainer and call-out per mobilization ($10k–$100k). Set to $0 baseline; used in incident scenarios.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $646K/yr
95.0% probability / year
Normal year with no stage-2 conversion incidents; routine operations, maintenance, research and staffing costs only.
no_agitation routine_maintenance scheduled_research
🚨 Minor Incident $696K/yr
4.0% probability / year +$50K vs baseline
Localized stage-2 conversion affecting small items/part of room requiring targeted disposal, equipment replacement and contractor mobilization.
prolonged_agitation insufficient_response_time localized_conversion
🚨 Major Incident $1.1M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$430K vs baseline
Full room / structural-stage-2 conversion requiring licensed disposal, major electrical/equipment replacement and structural remediation.
extended_agitation delayed_mitigation structural_conversion
👥 Personnel 4 total
Role Count Notes
Emergency Response Technician / MTF Agent 3 [#9] Modeled 3 FTEs (midpoint of 2–4) to provide on-call response, handling and drills.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 1 [#10] Single baseline security staff/monitoring role (budgeted as 1 FTE; additional temporary staffing possible during incidents).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges allowing midpoint-based estimates, but significant uncertainty remains around per-incident frequency and scale of stage-2 events; per-incident remediation costs are highly variable.
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