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SCP-2285 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2285
Expected annual
$3.2M
One-time setup
$57.0M
Annual recurring
$2.6M
Personnel
11
One-time capital costs are dominated by containment construction and an optional large-scale capture program (~$57M one-time in this estimate including a $50M scale-up contingency); recurring annual costs are driven by staff wages, research/monitoring, per-specimen maintenance and contingency/reserve funds (~$2.65M/yr baseline).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $57.0M
Large Scale Capture One Time $50.0M
[#11] Scoping/one-time capital to capture tens of thousands of additional specimens (estimate used: $500M/1000? cost-per-bird framing implies ~$50M for 100,000 at $500 each; using $50M mid-range for major scale-up scenario).
Facilities $4.0M
[#1] Construction/retrofit of dedicated aviaries, large reinforced raven room, airlocks, HVAC integration and secure staff access.
Ecological Remediation Contingency $1.0M
[#24] Contingency reserve for ecological remediation and liability if specimens are released and cause damage.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $625K
[#8] Wet lab buildout, modeling workstations, meteorological instruments, sample storage and related lab infrastructure.
Equipment $520K
[#2, #3, #4, #5, #12, #18] Humidification systems, backup UPS/generator hardware (install), perches/flight-space hardware, monitoring sensors/servers, transport crate/vehicle outfitting, initial enrichment stock.
High Voltage Lab One Time $350K
[#22] One-time specialized high-voltage testing cage / Faraday facility build for SCP-2285-7 electrical tolerance research.
Emergency Response Reserve $300K
[#20] Immediate rapid-response reserve fund to deal with escapes/accidents (initial funding).
International Operation One Time $100K
[#23] One-off international operation / per-operation scoping cost (airlift/quarantine/permitting) used as a representative per-operation budget.
Permits And Legal One Time $60K
[#15] Initial permitting, CITES/endangered-species paperwork and one-time legal coordination costs.
Training Initial $20K
[#17] Initial certification courses and staff storm-response/high-voltage safety training startup costs.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.6M/yr
Staff Wages $898K/yr
[#6, #7, #9] Salaries for core staff: technicians (husbandry/cleaning), veterinary staff (salary/contract) and research scientists (ornithologists, meteorologists, physiologists, lab techs).
Research And Monitoring $475K/yr
[#5, #8, #19, #22] Ongoing lab operation and staff for research, data storage/monitoring contracts, meteorological modeling contracts and operation of high-risk research protocols.
Cover Story And Legal $275K/yr
[#15, #16] Ongoing legal retainer, FOIA/data-request handling, public relations and cover budget for data-management and external coordination.
Per Specimen Maintenance $235K/yr
[#21] Blended per-specimen annual maintenance (~$500/yr average × current 469 specimens = ~$235,000) covering husbandry, vet care amortized, enrichment and monitoring share.
Facilities Maintenance $229K/yr
[#2, #3, #5, #13] Ongoing humidifier operation and service, backup generator fuel and load-testing, sensor/monitor maintenance, HVAC and general facility maintenance and utilities.
Logistics And Transport $218K/yr
[#10, #12, #23] Field capture operations (deployments, vehicles, UAVs/drones), climate-controlled transport maintenance, international liaison/coordination.
Insurance And Security $100K/yr
[#14] Facility insurance, liability coverage and contracted security services.
Ecological Remediation Reserve $100K/yr
[#24] Annual reserve contribution toward potential ecological remediation/liability.
Emergency Response Reserve Replenish $50K/yr
[#20] Annual replenishment allocation for rapid-response / recapture fund after use.
Supplies And Consumables $40K/yr
[#4, #6, #7, #18] Replacement perches and enrichment items, cleaning consumables, medical supplies, necropsy/pathology consumables.
Training And Safety $30K/yr
[#17] Annual refresher training for avian handling, storm-response, high-voltage safety and emergency drills.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.6M/yr
93.5% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents: ongoing containment, routine research, monitoring and maintenance.
no major storms impacting facility routine operations only
🚨 Minor Incident $2.8M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Localized containment stress or small escape during a storm requiring emergency response, temporary housing and extra veterinary care.
localized storm causing stress small-scale escape (<10 specimens) temporary facility damage
🚨 Major Breach $7.6M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Mass escape event (e.g., during a major hurricane) requiring large-scale recapture, public remediation and significant emergency operations.
major hurricane or extended outage structural containment failure mass behavioral response (panic/escape)
🚨 Scale Up Mass Capture $52.6M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Deliberate management decision to mount a multi-year/one-time large-scale capture program to attempt containment of tens of thousands of additional specimens.
policy decision to escalate capture effort substantial new funding allocated
👥 Personnel 11 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 6 [#9] Ornithologists, ecologists, meteorologists and physiologists (core study team).
Technician / Husbandry Technician 3 [#6] Full-time technicians for routine cleaning, husbandry and daily checks (2–4 FTE range; 3 used here).
Veterinary Officer 1 [#7] Specialized avian veterinarian (could be contract or FTE).
Veterinary Technician 1 [#7] Vet tech support for diagnostics, necropsy and care.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are medium confidence: analyst notes provide explicit ranges and many line-item specifics, but outcomes vary widely with storm activity, management decisions (scale-up) and ecological uncertainties, producing significant upper-tail cost risk.
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