SCP-2385 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-2385
Expected annual
$6.3M
One-time setup
$14.0M
Annual recurring
$6.0M
Personnel
40
Initial one-time capital and contingency reserves are estimated at roughly $14.0M, while ongoing annual operations are roughly $6.02M per year; main drivers are personnel (security and scientific staff), containment construction/hardening, and specialized mapping/R&D and emergency reserves.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $14.0M
Facilities $6.8M
[#1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #29] Land purchase, perimeter/site hardening, antechamber and reinforced containment construction, primary pens, on-site personnel facility, power infrastructure installation and environmental containment installation. Estimates summed from listed ranges; includes construction and structural work.
Decommissioning Reserve $3.0M
[#38] One-time reserve for worst-case decommissioning, demolition, excavation, chemical remediation and environmental cleanup.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.6M
[#10, #12] Initial robotics/mapping R&D and procurement and on-site rodent breeding facility / quarantine setup for bait programs.
Equipment $1.3M
[#8, #14, #21, #25, #28, #33, #36] Monitoring/surveillance hardware, initial tranquilizer/medical kits, autoclave/incinerator and biohazard equipment, heavy transport cranes/vans, trauma-bay equipment, data servers, and specimen-specific containment hardware.
Emergency Response Reserve $1.0M
[#34] One-time reserve for emergency neutralization capability (explosives/contractors/rapid-response assets) as a set-aside contingency.
Cover Setup $200K
[#31] One-time establishment of shell companies, legal front-setup, initial hush-payment reserves and clandestine administration setup.
Initial Training $120K
[#19] Initial specialist containment training and initial drills / scenario planning prior to full operations.
Vetting Initial $50K
[#32] Initial deep background checks, polygraphs and security-clearance setup for staff.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $6.0M/yr
Staff Wages $3.3M/yr
[#16, #17, #18, #39] Ongoing salary + benefits for veterinary staff and animal handlers, research & laboratory staff, 24/7 security staffing, plus estimated administrative/procurement/accounting payroll overhead (aggregated into payroll total).
Research And Monitoring $1.0M/yr
[#9, #11, #30, #33, #35] Sensor maintenance & data services, ongoing mapping/testing program (robot deployments/spares), environmental monitoring, recurring secure hosting/data services, and long-term research budget for sequencing/histology/proteomics and behavioral studies.
Contingency $500K/yr
[#40] Contingency buffer (10–25% recommended); set at mid-range to cover unpredictable anomalous-driven costs and repeated replacement of destroyed equipment.
Cover Story And Legal $430K/yr
[#31, #32, #37] Ongoing cover-story management, legal/compliance fees, ongoing vetting/counterintelligence monitoring, and liability insurance/premiums and compensation reserves.
Facilities Maintenance $250K/yr
[#6, #7, #24] Recurring generator fuel/electricity and UPS/grid costs, routine generator maintenance, and structural/engineering maintenance (doors, seals, concrete repairs).
Supplies And Consumables $210K/yr
[#13, #15, #22, #23, #36] Rodent husbandry consumables and veterinary screening, recurring pharmaceuticals/tranquilizers, biohazard disposal runs and consumables, PPE and sterilization consumables, and routine specimen care consumables.
Medical Contracts $150K/yr
[#27] Recurring on-call trauma/ER coverage contracts, medevac readiness contracts, and acute-care arrangements.
Emergency Drills $100K/yr
[#19, #20] Recurring containment readiness exercises, third-party simulated breaches and refresher training drills.
Logistics And Transport $60K/yr
[#26] Vehicle operations: drivers, fuel, maintenance and insurance for armored transport and heavy equipment usage.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $6.0M/yr
79.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with routine monitoring, staff wages, scheduled research, maintenance, and contingency reserve expenditures; no major incidents.
steady specimen capture/handling scheduled research and maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $6.2M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Localized containment breach or vehicle accident requiring emergency response, limited structural repairs, temporary increased staffing, and medical treatments; no site-wide failure.
small breach of a single pen vehicle/transport accident minor environmental contamination event
🚨 Major Breach $8.0M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure involving multiple specimens, major structural damage to antechamber/pens, large-scale remediation and specimen recovery/neutralization operations.
simultaneous pen/door failures failed capture operation extensive environmental contamination
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $18.0M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$12.0M vs baseline
Site-scale catastrophe requiring decommissioning, major environmental remediation, lengthy legal disputes, public exposure mitigation, and potential relocation or termination of containment site.
uncontained propagation major public exposure / political fallout failed neutralization requiring demolition
👥 Personnel 40 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Lab Staff 9 Includes biologists, pathologists, geneticists, behavioral scientists and lab technicians (from note #17).
Veterinary Staff / Animal Handlers 7 Includes 2 veterinarians and ~5 animal-care technicians (from note #16).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 18 Rotating 24/7 armed security and rapid-response teams (from note #18).
Administrative Staff 6 Procurement, HR, accounting and compliance staff included in operational payroll/overhead (from note #39).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges enabling a reasoned estimate, but wide ranges for capital items, uncertain success of R&D, and unpredictable anomalous behavior lower precision. Keter-class uncertainties and site-specific land costs also reduce confidence.
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