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SCP-2409 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2409
Expected annual
$1.4M
One-time setup
$2.4M
Annual recurring
$1.3M
Personnel
13
One-time setup and contingency reserves drive most upfront cost (~$2.38M); ongoing annual costs are driven by 24/7 remote monitoring, research/maintenance of ECRG hardware, and legal/cover operations (≈$1.34M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.4M
Contingency Reserve $550K
[#21] Insurance-like covert reserve fund for unexpected expenditures, fines, or payments to maintain silence (midpoint of $100k–$1,000k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $440K
[#3, #14, #17] ECRG restoration/antique-tech conservation setup, initial research program instruments, and forensic/sample handling setup.
Property Acquisition $375K
[#1] Covert acquisition / shell-ownership, closing costs, covert registration and cover expenses (midpoint estimate).
Asbestos Abatement $325K
[#11] Contingency certified abatement / remediation if required (midpoint of contingency range).
Emergency Demolition Contract $300K
[#22] On-call emergency demolition/containment capability contract (cranes, heavy equipment, permits).
Equipment $140K
[#4, #5, #8, #9, #16, #20, #23, #24, #10] Surveillance system, comms install, sensor suite, backup generator, spares stock, OPSEC infra, power conditioning, drones, and initial signage/housings.
Pr Cover Initial $115K
[#18] Initial retroambiguation, public-records work, and implementation of cover narrative (midpoint estimate).
Specialist Contractors Initial $75K
[#15] Initial hires/engagements for antique electrical/electromechanical restoration and custom fabrication.
Threat Assessment Consultancy $50K
[#25] One-off consultancy to produce updated threat assessment and containment plan before deadline.
On Site Reinforcement $5K
[#2] Initial boarding with black fabric, plywood (~8cm), steel bars and specialty anchors (materials & labor).
Facilities $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.3M/yr
Staff Wages $720K/yr
[#6, #7, #12, #13, #27] 24/7 remote monitoring technicians/analysts (3–6 FTE), local patrol/guard coverage, periodic containment inspection labor, rapid-response team retention and training-related personnel costs.
Research And Monitoring $278K/yr
[#3, #14, #15, #17] Ongoing ECRG servicing/part fabrication, sustained research program costs, recurring specialist contractor engagements, and forensic storage/analysis costs.
Cover Story And Legal $216K/yr
[#1, #10, #18, #19, #26, #28] Corporate maintenance/record management, signage renewals, PR/cover upkeep, legal/regulatory mitigation & lobbying, neighbor/community payments, and archival research.
Contingency Replenish $50K/yr
[#21] Periodic replenishment of covert contingency pool as used.
Opsec Operations $22K/yr
[#20] Ongoing secure-server ops, encrypted backups, and cybersecurity staffing/operations.
Logistics And Transport $20K/yr
[#12, #13, #24] Field visit travel & team dispatch costs, rapid-response vehicle ops, and routine drone survey operations.
Supplies And Consumables $12K/yr
[#16] Consumables and spares replenishment (cameras, sensors, fabric/plywood, PPE).
Comms Bandwidth $7K/yr
[#5] Encrypted uplink bandwidth, ISP fees, and redundant link costs.
Facilities Maintenance $5K/yr
[#2, #23] Structural/boarding repairs and periodic power conditioning/grounding maintenance.
Surveillance Maintenance $3K/yr
[#4] Camera housing, IR module replacements, and alarm integration upkeep.
Backup Power Operational $3K/yr
[#9] Fuel, testing, and minor service for UPS/generator systems.
Sensor Maintenance $2K/yr
[#8] Tamper, seismic, magnetic, and IR trip calibration and repairs.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.3M/yr
93.0% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; routine monitoring, maintenance, research, and cover operations only.
no containment failures routine maintenance only
🚨 Minor Incident $1.4M/yr
6.0% probability / year +$75K vs baseline
Minor containment/tech failure or vandalism requiring field dispatch, short-term repairs, limited PR/legal activity.
localized ECRG malfunction vandalism / targeted curiosity small remediation/repair
🚨 Major Breach $2.1M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$800K vs baseline
Significant containment failure or enforced remediation requiring emergency contracts, large abatement, heavy PR/legal action, possibly demolition.
containment tech collapse regulatory discovery requiring abatement large-scale emergency demolition/containment
👥 Personnel 13 total
Role Count Notes
Remote Monitoring Technician / Analyst 4 [#6] 24/7 monitoring requires multiple shifts (3–6 FTE); estimated 4 FTE monitoring staff handling video/sensor feeds and escalation.
Security Officer / Guard (local patrol) 3 [#7] Periodic patrols/on-call guards (2–4 part-time) approximated as 3 staff for coverage and overtime.
Rapid-response Field Team 4 [#13] Small on-call remediation/recapture crew retained for breaches and urgent repairs; headcount reflects team and vehicle operators.
Engineer / Maintenance Specialist 1 [#2, #23] Technical lead for on-site repairs, power conditioning, and sensor maintenance; provides inspection support.
Administrative / Records & OPSEC Support 1 [#1, #18, #20] Single staffer handling corporate cover maintenance, FOIA/records responses, and liaison for OPSEC/cybersecurity operations.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges for NYC operations, so category-level assignments are well-supported; large ranges on many items (contingency, specialist conservators, abatement) and uncertainty about long-term ECRG needs limit confidence to medium.
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