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SCP-2460 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2460
Expected annual
$8.6M
One-time setup
$205.8M
Annual recurring
$6.9M
Personnel
20
Corrected baseline: Foundation operational recurring cost ~ $6.89M/yr driven by staffed 24/7 monitoring, sensor operations, and research; one-time capital and contingency provisioning totals ~$205.85M (sensor/HPC procurement, lab buildout, mission hardware and reserve funds). The previously included large-scale mitigation/towing budget is treated as infeasible and set to $0 (see notes). Systemic economic impact (including the possibility of civilization-ending collapse) is identified but not quantifiable as a Foundation expenditure.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $205.8M
High Fidelity Mission Cost $150.0M
Optional high-fidelity mission/sample-return or heavy rendezvous campaign (higher instrumentation, sample-return architecture, dedicated launch). Contingent, one-off if Foundation elects a major in-situ recovery; included as a one-time budget line to permit contingency planning in the event O5 approves a high-cost mission.
Reconnaissance Mission Cost Per Mission $25.0M
Representative per-mission cost for a small rendezvous-capable reconnaissance satellite (instruments, propulsion for close approach, mission ops and piggyback/light launch). Chosen as a realistic, recurring one-time-per-mission figure from analyst #6 ranges.
Equipment $22.9M
Dedicated sensor and infrastructure procurement: targeted upgrades/leases for active radar capability, optical/IR telescope enhancements, LIDAR/rangefinder hardware, plus primary HPC node procurement and secure archive hardware. Items drawn from analyst #1, #3 and #13; figure aggregates mid-range procurement and integration costs (does not assume building a full new observatory).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $2.2M
Secure laboratory outfitting and forensic equipment: mass spectrometers, electron microscopy time/purchase amortization, small clean-room/cold/dry storage, BSL-3/BSL-4-compatible decon/PPE install and certification startup. Based on analyst items #10 and #11; mid-range buildout to permit safe handling and analysis of recovered material.
Contingency Salvage Recovery Fund Initial $2.0M
Seed contingency fund for initial salvage, recovery, hazmat and forensic operations (ships/aircraft/dive teams/evidence transport) in the event of a collision that deposits material. See analyst #9; figure selected as a readily deployable initial reserve.
Facilities $1.2M
Site and office physical buildout: secure liaison/coordination office fit-out, emergency/collision-response centre equipment and limited Site-195 tracking-unit power/HVAC/backup generator upgrades. Based on item #4, #7 and #12 in analyst notes; chosen conservative mid-range for small facility upgrades and generator/UPS purchase/installation.
Insurance Initial Reserve $1.0M
Initial indemnity/insurance reserve to underwrite Foundation-launched missions and to provide immediate settlement capacity for small third-party claims. Based on analyst #18 guidance.
Public Safety Incident Reserve $1.0M
Initial public-safety contingency seed to fund urgent evacuations, short-notice local government support or immediate messaging/coordination while larger resources are mobilised. See analyst #16.
Legal And Diplomatic Contingency Reserve $500K
One-time legal/diplomatic contingency to allow rapid negotiated measures with partner agencies, counsel retention and immediate diplomatic actions. Informed by analyst #15; conservative lower-mid reserve chosen.
Mitigation Program Estimate $0
Moving/towing/destroying SCP-2460 by engineering means (towing an asteroid of comparable mass into LEO, using gravity tugging, or otherwise imparting the required delta-v) is effectively infeasible with present Foundation-capable resources (analyst #19). Because the Foundation cannot physically implement credible large-scale removal with its own plausible programs, this line is set to 0; the Foundation instead budgets for monitoring, contingency response, and theoretical study. If O5 authorizes a multinational, multi-decade national-level program, that would be accounted for separately and would not be a realistic single-Foundation operational spend.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $6.9M/yr
Staff Wages $3.1M/yr
Loaded annual labor costs for continuous operations and supporting staff. Composition used in payroll estimate: 5 research scientists (~$180k loaded each), 4 orbital mechanics/mission planners (~$170k), 3 radar/telescope operators (~$130k), 3 communications/liaison officers (~$140k), 2 engineers/maintenance (~$150k), 2 security/field agents (~$120k), 1 site director/administrator (~$160k). Totals reflect analyst #2 and staff model consistent with 24/7 coverage and specialist hires.
Research And Monitoring $2.6M/yr
Sensor operations (radar/telescope time and operators), mission-analysis software licenses and HPC maintenance, NOTAM/catalog administration and data archival/cybersecurity, funded theoretical/experimental research program into bosonic/colocation physics, and averaging periodic high-precision re-survey campaigns. Component breakdown (annualized): sensor/telescope/radar ops $1,200,000; research program $1,000,000; software/HPC/licenses $150,000; NOTAM/catalog and archival ops $75,000; periodic campaign amortization $200,000. Derived from analyst items #1, #3, #5, #13, #14 and #20.
Supplies And Consumables $325K/yr
Lab consumables, PPE replacement, decon supplies, cold/dry storage operations and waste processing for handled samples (analyst #10 and #11).
Facilities Maintenance $300K/yr
Recurring site overhead: power, HVAC, generator/UPS maintenance, secure facility maintenance contracts, and periodic hardware servicing as per analyst #12.
Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr
Ongoing legal, diplomatic and cover-operation costs (classification upkeep, counsel, coordination with international partners and modest reimbursement/liaison expenses). This excludes impossible large-scale concealment in existential scenarios (see systemic notes); figure consistent with analyst #15 and #4.
Logistics And Transport $250K/yr
Routine logistics support for transport, on-call vessel/airlift stand-by costs for potential recovery operations, and low-frequency mission support tasks (analyst #6 and #9).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $6.9M/yr
91.0% probability / year
Routine year with continuous monitoring, research and modest contingency reserves; no collision requiring major recovery actions or high-fidelity missions.
continuous orbital tracking and sensor ops no new collisions or significant perturbations regular research and re-surveys
🚨 Minor Incident $8.1M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$1.2M vs baseline
Small debris collision or localized perturbation requiring targeted recovery, extra sensor campaigns and operator reimbursements; no major reentry.
small object captured by SCP-2460 requiring a targeted reconnaissance pass or short recovery satellite avoidance maneuvers requiring modest reimbursements additional high-precision re-survey campaigns
🚨 Major Collision Or Reentry $171.9M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$165.0M vs baseline
Significant collision cascade or credible re-entry/deposit threat requiring a high-fidelity mission, large-scale recovery, public-safety operations and legal settlements.
large debris impact or mass increase requiring sample-return/high-fidelity mission coastal or urban deposit of anomalous material necessitating large recovery and public-safety operations multi-operator third-party claims and extended legal/diplomatic response
👥 Personnel 20 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 5 Physicists and laboratory analysts for characterization, theoretical research and sample analysis; loaded cost assumed ~$180k/year each (included in staff_wages).
Orbital Mechanics Analyst / Mission Planner 4 Orbit determination, N-body modelling, reentry/conjunction analysis; loaded cost assumed ~$170k/year each.
Radar/Telescope Operator 3 Sensor operators and instrument technicians for continuous tracking; loaded cost assumed ~$130k/year each.
Communications / Liaison Officer 3 Agency/military liaison, NOTAM/catalog coordination and classified briefings; loaded cost assumed ~$140k/year each.
Engineer / Maintenance 2 Instrument/HPC/support infrastructure maintenance and cybersecurity liaison; loaded cost assumed ~$150k/year each.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 2 Site security and recovery-team protection; loaded cost assumed ~$120k/year each.
Site Director / Administrative Staff 1 Program management, administrative oversight and budget coordination; loaded cost assumed ~$160k/year.
📋 Confidence Notes
This re-evaluation used the full article and the original analyst notes to re-derive all figures. Baseline recurring costs were tightened and itemized more rigorously; a previously-present single large 'mitigation' round number has been zeroed (infeasible) and replaced by explicit notes. Uncertainty remains in incident-frequency assumptions and in the cost variability of missions and large recovery events; therefore confidence is medium. The systemic (existential) impact is explicitly noted as unquantifiable rather than being hand-waved into a dollar figure.
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