SCP-261 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-261
Expected annual
$693K
One-time setup
$378K
Annual recurring
$625K
Personnel
3.2
One-time setup about $380k driven by contingency and initial covert recovery; recurring annual baseline about $625k driven by staff wages, sampled testing, and research/analytical fees.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $378K
Contingency Initial Reserve $250K
[#22] Initial contingency / containment reserve (minimum set-aside for escalation response).
Covert Recovery Initial $50K
[#15] Initial retrieval from Yokohama: covert ops, transport, false paperwork, local payments.
Equipment $41K
[#2, #3, #9, #12, #17] Access-control install, CCTV install, handheld radiological detectors, fridge/freezer & cabinets (storage equipment), secure transport case.
Facilities $18K
[#1] Small secure room (~4 m²) buildout, biometric lock, tamper sensors, splash/surface-cleanable finishes, mounting/anchoring.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $15K
[#8, #13] Initial cataloging system / database and modest lab setup for sample handling; advanced capital instruments (GC-MS) handled as optional item.
Training Initial $4K
[#23] Initial staff training and SOP documentation setup (translation, mock drills).
Gc Ms Capital Purchase $0
[#8] Optional capital GC-MS (~$200k) noted; baseline assumes reuse of existing analytical capacity so not purchased here.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $625K/yr
Staff Wages $255K/yr
[#4, #5, #6, #20] Security personnel (1 FTE Level-2 guard), security overtime/on-call, Health & Safety staffing (~0.2 FTE), research staff (1 principal researcher + 1 tech).
Research And Monitoring $153K/yr
[#7, #8, #13] Routine sampled laboratory screening program (~sampled policy), advanced analytical runs (outsourced fees contingency), cataloging/database maintenance.
Administrative Overhead $82K/yr
[#25] Program management, audit, internal reporting (assumed ~15% of direct recurring costs).
Cover Story And Legal $50K/yr
[#16, #19, #24] Ongoing cover/OPSEC, insurance/legal retainer and institutional risk accounting, public-facing cover / liaison costs.
Contingency Reserve $50K/yr
[#22] Annual set-aside for contingency / high-tail events and escalation funding.
Supplies And Consumables $16K/yr
[#10, #11, #14] PPE & consumables, hazardous/biohazard waste disposal, petty cash for routine testing / small reimbursements.
Facilities Maintenance $10K/yr
[#2, #3, #9, #12, #18] Access-control maintenance, CCTV storage/monitoring, radiological equipment calibration, storage power/maintenance, machine mechanical servicing.
Logistics And Transport $8K/yr
[#17] Secure internal transport, armored courier budget and per-transport fees.
Training $2K/yr
[#23] Annual refresher training and drills.
Per Item Full Testing Cost $0/yr
[#21] Cost of enforcing full per-item testing (every vend) is policy-dependent; baseline uses sampling, so full-per-item program not enacted here (range $550k–1.8M/yr).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $625K/yr
87.5% probability / year
Normal year with sampled testing, single on-site guard, no major incidents.
routine_testing_and_ops no_incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $700K/yr
10.0% probability / year +$75K vs baseline
Limited hazardous vend or accidental injury requiring increased testing, medical treatment, short quarantine and investigation.
anomalous_item_causes_injury localized_contamination
🚨 Major Breach $1.1M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Significant hazardous event (explosive/poisonous vend, researcher fatality, localized outbreak) requiring extended response, legal costs, and equipment replacement.
explosive_or_lethal_item multi-person_injury regulatory/legal_action
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $10.6M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Worst-case large-scale biological/chemical/radiological event requiring BSL-3/4 response, mass quarantine, and long-term remediation.
novel_pathogen_release widespread_exposure
👥 Personnel 3.2 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 1 [#4] One Level-2 guard on-site (baseline).
Research Scientist 1 [#20] Principal researcher coordinating experiments and analysis.
Research Technician 1 [#20] Technician supporting sampling and lab work.
Health & Safety Officer 0.2 [#6] ~0.2 FTE for pre-consumption screening and risk assessment.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, enabling mid-confidence estimates; uncertainty remains due to policy choices (sampling vs full testing), optional capital purchases, and tail-risk magnitude.
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