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SCP-2659 Euclid ? low confidence
SCP-2659
Expected annual
$25.3M
One-time setup
$133.1M
Annual recurring
$22.1M
Personnel
74
Initial capital outlay is large (~$148.4M) driven primarily by the purchase/retrofit of a dedicated vessel, a worst-case contingency reserve, and deep-sea intervention hardware (ROVs/submersible). Annual recurring costs are substantial (~$22.1M/yr), driven by personnel, vessel operations/logistics, carcass disposal, and cover/legal operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $133.1M
Worst Case Contingency $100.0M
[#30] Large-scale worst-case public exposure / neutralization contingency planning fund (military-grade response / global misinformation / ordnance).
Equipment $30.0M
[#1, #3, #5, #6, #7, #11, #15, #20, #22] Vessel purchase/retrofit, work-class ROVs/AUVs, manned submersible purchase, seafloor sensors (battery package), high-resolution mapping hardware, interdiction hardware procurement, emergency salvage equipment purchase, secure communications initial setup, cold-chain initial freezers.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.2M
[#8] Onshore HQ/lab/necropsy facility fit-out, cold storage and sample processing fit-out.
Legal And Diplomatic Setup $1.0M
[#16] One-time legal/diplomatic front-creation, MPA designation setup and intergovernmental payments.
Training And Certification $300K
[#10] Initial training program for ROV/dives/cetacean handling, rules-of-engagement and cover identity training.
Front Ngo Launch $150K
[#17] One-time branding/launch costs for the front NGO and PR apparatus.
Security One Time $150K
[#26] One-time physical security and vetting setup for onshore facilities/staff.
Interdiction Procurement $150K
[#11] Procurement of specialized euthanasia/termination equipment, harpoons, veterinary gear (one-time capital purchase).
Intelligence Setup $135K
[#19] One-time setup costs for embedded operatives (false CVs, relocation, initial placement costs).
Facilities $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $22.1M/yr
Logistics And Transport $7.6M/yr
[#2, #14, #15, #24] Dedicated vessel annual operation (crew, fuel, maintenance, docking), carcass disposal/towing/sinking operations, emergency salvage retainer/charter costs, port/harbor fees and registrations.
Staff Wages $6.0M/yr
[#9] Salaries: ship crew, ROV pilots/technicians, biologists/pathologists, embedded agents/liaison, armed interdiction team, admin/legal/PR.
Cover Story And Legal $2.0M/yr
[#16, #17, #18, #27] Ongoing legal/diplomatic retainers, front NGO operations/PR, covert payments/bribes, crisis communications/post-event cover-story funds.
Depreciation Reserve $2.0M/yr
[#25] Annual reserve (5–10%) for scheduled replacement of capital (vessel/ROVs/submersible/etc.).
Research And Monitoring $1.4M/yr
[#12, #13, #6, #7, #21, #22, #23] Whale tagging program, satellite/AIS data services, seafloor sensor maintenance/power swaps, mapping equipment calibration, lab consumables/reagents, cold-chain LN2/energy, sensor/AUV charging and battery logistics.
Intelligence Support $800K/yr
[#19] Ongoing support for embedded operatives (living expenses, cover identities, relocation support).
Supplies And Consumables $500K/yr
[#11] Interdiction consumables (ammunition, veterinary drugs, specialized charges) and routine consumables for interventions.
Rov Operations $500K/yr
[#4] ROV/AUV technician salaries, tether/winch service, spare parts and repairs.
Environmental Fines Reserve $500K/yr
[#28] Contingency reserve for environmental fines or litigation resulting from detected interventions.
Facilities Maintenance $350K/yr
[#8, #26] Onshore HQ lease/utilities/maintenance and onshore facility security annual costs.
Submersible Ops $300K/yr
[#5] Manned submersible annual operations, maintenance and certifications.
Personnel Medical $100K/yr
[#29] Medical, psychological counseling, medevac and indemnity costs for staff.
Secure Comms And Cyber $75K/yr
[#20] Ongoing encrypted communications subscriptions, secure storage and OPSEC audits.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $22.1M/yr
90.0% probability / year
Normal operating year with no major public exposure or large emergency operations; routine interventions and monitoring continue.
routine monitoring scheduled interventions no public leaks
🚨 Minor Incident $25.1M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Localized discovery or beaching of a carcass near public areas requiring emergency response, higher PR/legal costs and additional salvage/charcoal operations.
beach discovery local media attention emergency salvage/large disposal
🚨 Major Breach $172.1M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$150.0M vs baseline
Public exposure or mass-casualty/major diplomatic incident requiring large-scale neutralization, military-grade operation, or extensive international cover-up.
major public leak mass media/diplomatic escalation mass-casualty event
👥 Personnel 74 total
Role Count Notes
Ship crew / vessel crew 25 [#2, #9] Core crew for multi-month at-sea operations and vessel maintenance.
ROV pilots / technicians 6 [#3, #4, #9] Operators and maintainers for work-class ROVs/AUVs.
Research scientists / marine biologists / pathologists 6 [#8, #21, #9] Lab and field researchers for necropsy, sample analysis and environmental monitoring.
Embedded agents / liaison officers 9 [#19, #9] Operatives embedded in regional cetacean organizations and liaison staff.
Armed interdiction team / specialists 12 [#11, #9] Personnel responsible for interception, termination operations and weapons handling.
Administrative / legal / PR staff 8 [#16, #17, #27, #9] Front NGO management, legal cover, PR and crisis communications staff.
Engineers / maintenance (ship & sensors) 4 [#2, #4, #6, #9] Engineers for vessel systems, winches, sensor maintenance and ROV support.
Medical / safety officers 2 [#29, #9] Medical support, trauma counseling coordinators and occupational health staff.
Security officers / onshore facility guards 2 [#26, #9] Onshore physical security and vetting support.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates rely on wide ranges provided by analyst notes and many mission variables (number of interventions, choice of assets, local government cooperation). Significant tail risks (public exposure) create large uncertainty.
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