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SCP-2684 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2684
Expected annual
$1.5M
One-time setup
$7.1M
Annual recurring
$1.4M
Personnel
12
Initial one-time setup is dominated by coastal land acquisition and facility buildout (~$7.05M total one-time), while ongoing annual expenses (security, research, maintenance, and legal/cover operations) run roughly $1.44M/year. Major cost drivers are land purchase, research/ROV capability and recurring security + legal/cover operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $7.1M
Facilities $4.3M
[#1, #2, #5, #6, #7, #25, #28] Land purchase, title/closing/surveys, perimeter/fencing, modular guard posts, utilities hookup, initial secure on-site storage setup, and memorial setup.
Long Term Research Escalation Initial $1.0M
[#30] Up-front escalation allowance for potential future deep-submersible purchases / lab scale-up.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $675K
[#16, #20] Research vessel/ROV/hydrophone purchases and data-analysis / secure server lab equipment.
Contingency Reserve $500K
[#29] Liquid rapid-response reserve for unexpected containment operations or crisis response.
Equipment $262K
[#8, #11, #12, #13, #14, #15] Backup generator, initial vehicle purchases, fixed surveillance array, portable observation gear, drone fleet purchase, and radio/field communications hardware.
Legal One Time $200K
[#3] Upfront legal work to resolve public-access issues, easements, permitting and initial cover-story fabrication/litigation contingency.
Forensics And Coverup Initial $50K
[#19] Initial forensic-grade fabrication of remains and paperwork to establish the cover story.
Guard Training Initial $10K
[#10] One-time initial guard training and pre-employment vetting costs.
Dive Medical Initial $10K
[#18] Initial emergency dive medical kit and training.
Secure Evidence Storage Initial $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.4M/yr
Staff Wages $720K/yr
[#9, #17] Permanent security staffing (rotating guards + supervisor) and small dedicated research staff salaries.
Cover Story And Legal $200K/yr
[#4, #19, #28, #23] Front-company overhead, ongoing PR/legal upkeep and community outreach/hush payments, and legal retainer / limited insurance premiums.
Research And Monitoring $162K/yr
[#16, #17, #20, #14] Charter days and contractor fees for field testing, ad-hoc contractor/test costs, IT support/backups for analysis, and part of drone monitoring operations tied to research tasks.
Storm Contingency Fund $150K/yr
[#22] Annual hurricane/storm contingency reserve for repairs, replacements and evacuation logistics.
Facilities Maintenance $75K/yr
[#21, #7] Environmental/coastal maintenance (dune stabilization, erosion control, storm repairs) and regular utilities/septic/broadband bills.
Equipment Replacement $30K/yr
[#27] Consumable replacement and spare parts for diving gear, ROVs, and other test equipment.
Dive Medical Contract $20K/yr
[#18] Recompression chamber access/contract and recurring dive-medical readiness costs.
Supplies And Consumables $17K/yr
[#26, #13] Operational consumables (PPE, patrol fuel, batteries, life jackets) and guard portable-equipment consumables.
Surveillance Maintenance $12K/yr
[#12] Cloud/on-site storage, camera maintenance and support contracts.
Drone Operations $12K/yr
[#14] Pilot training/certifications, FAA waiver upkeep, and routine drone maintenance.
Personnel Wellness $12K/yr
[#24] Ongoing counseling and periodic psych evaluations for guards and researchers.
Logistics And Transport $10K/yr
[#11] Vehicle fuel, routine maintenance and small transport costs for patrol/response.
Training And Background Checks $10K/yr
[#10] Ongoing guard training, certifications and background re-checks.
Generator Fuel Maintenance $6K/yr
[#8] Fuel and routine maintenance for backup generator.
Comms Service $4K/yr
[#15] Service/maintenance for encrypted radio/base stations and comms infrastructure.
Offsite Storage $3K/yr
[#25] Off-site secure archival storage for sensitive physical evidence and backups.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.4M/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations: posted guards, basic scheduled testing, maintenance, and cover story upkeep.
no major storms routine testing only no legal crises
🚨 Minor Incident $1.5M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$100K vs baseline
Localized incident such as vandalism, small containment repair, minor legal challenge or small equipment failure requiring emergency repairs and additional legal hours.
vandalism/trespass small equipment loss local litigation
🚨 Major Storm Damage $2.2M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$750K vs baseline
Hurricane or major storm causes substantial infrastructure and equipment damage requiring rebuilding, replacement of vessels/ROV and extensive legal/cover expenditures.
major hurricane impact coastal flooding/erosion destruction of cameras/structures
🚨 Research Escalation $1.9M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Program scales up research (regular deep testing, additional staff, vessel leasing and expanded analysis) that raises recurring operational costs significantly.
new research initiative successful mapping leads to expanded program
👥 Personnel 12 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#9] Full-time rotating guards to ensure two posted at all times (6–8 FTEs estimated; 8 used here).
Site Supervisor / Security Supervisor 1 [#9] One shift supervisor to manage rotations and on-call response.
Research Scientist 3 [#17] Small dedicated research team (2–3 FTEs estimated) for testing, analysis and coordination with contractors.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on analyst-provided ranges and reasonable mid-point selections for coastal Florida; land costs and storm exposure introduce significant variance, while other operational costs are better defined.
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