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SCP-2766 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2766
Expected annual
$1.0M
One-time setup
$6.0M
Annual recurring
$1.0M
Personnel
6
Initial one-time capital is approximately $6.05M driven by the filtration/treatment plant, civil works (pipeline/channel and structural repairs), archaeological conservation and contingency funds; annual recurring costs are about $1.026M/yr driven by research & monitoring, cover-story/legal costs, and ongoing security and maintenance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $6.0M
Filtration Plant $2.0M
[#4] Modular filtration/dilution/treatment plant and civil tie-in at the San Lorenzo hydroelectric dam.
Facilities $1.5M
[#1, #3, #18] Diversion channel/pipeline, entrance/outlet structural modification, and downstream/dam mitigation civil works and tie-ins.
Equipment $650K
[#2, #14, #15, #16, #17, #19] Pumps and flow-control hardware, vehicles/trailers, initial spill-response kit, sample archive freezers, SCADA/IT hardware, and backup generator/UPS.
Capital Contingency $600K
[#22] Contingency allowance on capital works for archaeological surprises and unknown subsurface conditions (~10–20% of capital).
Archaeological Conservation $500K
[#11] One-time archaeological surveys, conservation-grade repairs and specialist oversight required during construction.
Land Acquisition And Easements $300K
[#12] Purchase/compensation for river/riverbank rights, easements, temporary access and stakeholder compensation.
Contingency Reserve Fund $300K
[#20] Dedicated reserve fund for unexpected major repairs, remediation or legal exposure.
Cover Story Setup $200K
[#13] One-time costs to establish local cover story, legal retainer/setup, and initial municipality/liaison agreements.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.0M/yr
Research And Monitoring $425K/yr
[#7, #8, #11, #18] Laboratory water-quality analysis, monthly sampling and archive storage, ongoing scientific research (1–3 scientists), archaeological monitoring, and downstream ecological monitoring.
Cover Story And Legal $250K/yr
[#13] Ongoing legal counsel, PR/FOIA handling, municipality liaison payments and cover-story maintenance.
Staff Wages $200K/yr
[#9] Baseline 24/7 perimeter/site security staffing and contractor security surge days (wages/contractors).
Facilities Maintenance $50K/yr
[#10] Regular inspections, vegetation control, sediment removal, mechanical maintenance contracts and seasonal masonry conservation.
Emergency Retainer $30K/yr
[#15] Annual retainer and training for environmental/spill-response contractor.
Logistics And Transport $20K/yr
[#14] Vehicle fuel/maintenance, driver costs, occasional heavy-lift rentals factored into event budgets.
Training And Compliance $15K/yr
[#21] Confined-space training, PPE replacement, hot-work permits and regular safety drills.
Supplies And Consumables $10K/yr
[#6] Filtration consumables, chemicals (coagulants/dechlorination/activated carbon), filter media replacement and waste disposal.
Energy $10K/yr
[#5] Electricity to operate pumps and treatment per event; seasonal variation included.
Scada And It Support $10K/yr
[#17] Annual support, telemetry costs, secure backups, CCTV retention and cybersecurity for operational systems.
Backup Power Fuel $5K/yr
[#19] Fuel and maintenance for diesel generator(s) sized for event operations.
Sample Archive Maintenance $1K/yr
[#16] Power/service for archived sample freezers and cold-chain monitoring.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.0M/yr
93.0% probability / year
Normal year with monthly operations and no major incidents; all recurring programs run as planned.
scheduled monthly operation no spills or structural incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $1.1M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$65K vs baseline
Small accidental release or localized containment failure requiring cleanup, additional monitoring and contractor mobilization.
small spill during transfer pump/control failure with limited overflow
🚨 Major Breach $2.0M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Significant structural failure, major uncontrolled release, or public exposure requiring large-scale remediation, rebuild and legal response.
structural collapse of aqueduct section widespread environmental contamination or public discovery
👥 Personnel 6 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#9] 24/7 baseline perimeter/site guards (three 8-hour shifts) and contractor surge capacity on event days; wages included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on detailed analyst line items with explicit per-item figures, but uncertainties remain around archaeological surprises, environmental treatment complexity, and the low-probability/high-cost events which could materially change capital and recurring needs.
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