SCP-2781 — SCP-2781 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-2781 Keter ~ medium confidence

SCP-2781

Expected annual

$34.8M

One-time setup

$109.2M

Annual recurring

$31.5M

Personnel

Initial program capital and large contingency drive one-time costs (~$109.2M). Annual operations driven by staffing, program overhead, hush payments and recurrent air/sea asset ops total ~$31.525M/year.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $109.2M

Emergency Contingency Reserve $50.0M

[#20] Standby emergency contingency reserve for mass exposure/public panic (liquid/covert accounts).

Program Capital $25.0M

[#1] Program-level initial capital: ships, boats, helicopters, AUV/USV/drones, secure warehouse/lab, basic IT.

Patrol Vessels $10.0M

[#5] Two medium cutter-class vessels acquisition/outfitting.

Decommission Reserve $7.5M

[#30] Decommission/replacement capital reserve (program lifecycle replacement).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $7.3M

[#19, #23, #24, #29] Initial research program capital, IT/server procurement, historical/archival project, initial containment R&D.

Helicopters $4.0M

[#7] Two used maritime helicopters acquisition.

Interception Craft $1.8M

[#6] Six fast intercept craft (RHIBs) procurement.

Autonomous Systems $1.5M

[#8] AUV/USV/UAV initial procurement for persistent coverage.

Facilities $1.0M

[#12] Port facility lease/secure lab fit-out one-time fit-out cost.

Sensor Suites $750K

[#9] FLIR/thermal camera suites and hydrophones/sonar arrays procurement.

Coastal Buoys $150K

[#11] Instrumented buoys and expendable marker buoys initial purchase.

Ppe And Rescue Gear $150K

[#21] Specialized PPE, anti-drowning & non-water-entry rescue gear initial purchase.

Equipment $0

[]

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $31.5M/yr

Program Operations $10.0M/yr

[#2] Program-level recurring budget (operations, salaries, maintenance, consumables) as an overall running-cost bucket.

Staff Wages $4.5M/yr

[#3, #4] MTF core staffing (30 operatives) and support specialists (research/analysts/translators/legal/intel).

Research And Monitoring $3.7M/yr

[#19, #28, #24, #23, #29] Ongoing R&D and monitoring: mitigation research, population monitoring, archival follow-ups, IT hosting, containment-failure R&D.

Hush Payments $2.5M/yr

[#16] Hush money/compensation/cover payments to families, local authorities, shipping companies.

Cover Story And Legal $1.5M/yr

[#18] Public relations & misinformation campaign budget (cover stories, notices, online management).

Supplies And Consumables $1.2M/yr

[#13] Fuel and consumables for ships, helicopters, vehicles and generators.

Helicopter Ops $1.2M/yr

[#7] Helicopter operations, maintenance, pilots, fuel.

Patrol Vessels Maintenance $1.0M/yr

[#5] Annual maintenance (~10%) for medium cutter-class vessels.

Satellite And Data $1.0M/yr

[#10] Satellite imagery, AIS data subscriptions, SAR tasking fees.

Field Amnestic Operations $1.0M/yr

[#15] Mobile amnestic clinic teams, drugs, aftercare and administrative cover (~$5k/case × assumed caseload).

Maintenance And Spare Parts $1.0M/yr

[#14] Maintenance & spare parts for vessels, aircraft, and electronics in a corrosive maritime environment.

Legal And Diplomatic $750K/yr

[#17] Legal/diplomatic liaison costs and covert influence operations.

Insurance Writeoff Fund $500K/yr

[#26] Insurance-like fund for civilian claims, asset losses, and quiet replacements.

Interception Craft Ops $300K/yr

[#6] Annual maintenance/fuel/crew for fast intercept craft.

Autonomous Ops $300K/yr

[#8] Maintenance and ops for AUV/USV/UAV fleet.

Miscellaneous Logistics $300K/yr

[#27] Mooring fees, customs, small craft replacement, food and day-to-day port fees.

Facilities Maintenance $250K/yr

[#12] Lease, utilities and basic facility maintenance for coastal staging facility.

Training And Exercises $250K/yr

[#22] Regular drills: maritime interdiction, amnestic protocol, cultural sensitivity training.

Sensor Maintenance $100K/yr

[#9] Calibration and replacement for thermal cameras and hydrophones.

Psych Care $100K/yr

[#25] Psychological care, debriefing and resilience programs for team members.

Coastal Buoy Maintenance $50K/yr

[#11] Maintenance & replacement for coastal sensor buoys.

Ppe Replacement $25K/yr

[#21] PPE replacement, training refresh and consumables.

Logistics And Transport $0/yr

[]

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $31.5M/yr

92.0% probability / year

Normal, uneventful year with routine monitoring, maintenance, staff wages, and steady operations.

routine sightings no mass exposures

🚨 Minor Incident $36.5M/yr

6.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline

Localized spike in manifestations (beach/ferry sightings) requiring surge patrols, amnestic operations, and extra PR/payments.

clustered beach/ferry abductions local media attention

🚨 Major Breach $181.5M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$150.0M vs baseline

Mass exposure event (multiple large public incidents) causing public panic, mass amnestics, emergency payouts and full contingency drawdown.

mass abductions at tourist sites ferry sinking or high-profile media coverage

👥 Personnel 42 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	30	[#3] Core Zeta-66 operatives including command, medics, divers, boat crews, marines, amnestic techs and analysts.
Research Scientist	6	[#4, #19, #24, #28] Scientists conducting theological/memetic/dimensional research, population monitoring and archival studies.
Administrative Staff	3	[#4, #17] Admin, logistics and covert procurement coordination.
Translator / Cultural Specialist	1	[#4, #24] Language, folklore and cultural analysis specialists for liaison with regional records and interpreting on-site reports.
Medical Officer	2	[#3, #25] Medics and medical staff supporting amnestic operations and team wellbeing.

📋 Confidence Notes

Many line items provide numeric estimates, enabling a structured budget, but overlap between the program-level buckets and line-item detail (and inherent uncertainty about incident frequency/severity for a Keter maritime entity) reduces precision.

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