SCP-2812 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-2812
Expected annual
$9.2M
One-time setup
$57.8M
Annual recurring
$5.3M
Personnel
16
Estimated one-time setup and contingencies are dominated by town-level cover and demobilization contingencies (~$57.8M one-time), while recurring annual costs are driven by personnel and an insurance/reserve line ($5.347M/year). Major-cost drivers are resident compensation/cover, emergency demobilization, and ongoing staffing/insurance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $57.8M
Demobilization Contingency $27.5M
[#26] Demobilization/remediation contingency reserve for demolition, hazardous disposal, site remediation and long-term monitoring; range $5M–$50M, midpoint used here ($27.5M) to reflect significant uncertainty and potential scope.
Town Level Cover $25.0M
[#18] Moderate town-level cover/relocation & civilian compensation budget (recommended moderate set-aside) to handle relocation, buyouts, records suppression and payments — analyst recommended ~$25M as practical moderate budget.
Facilities $2.0M
[#2, #3, #4, #16, #17] Site acquisition/long lease ($400k), facility fit-out & hardening including armory/labs/safe rooms ($900k), specialized containment cell structural work ($500k), perimeter barriers install ($150k) and fence/plaza repairs ($50k) consolidated as physical construction/structural costs.
Insurance Seed $2.0M
[#23] One-time initial insurance/contingency seed to establish emergency response fund and reserves (part of broader $2M–$10M guidance); $2M initial seed recommended.
Equipment $810K
[#5, #6, #10, #11, #12, #15, #21] Hardware and device purchases: vehicle fleet purchase ($250k) [#5], initial weapons & non-lethal procurement ($40k) [#6], remote surveillance install ($150k) [#10], specialized robotics/hardened manipulators ($150k) [#11], power generator & UPS purchase ($70k) [#12], specialized capture/transport modules/containers ($100k) [#15], and one-time communications/hardened comms hardware ($50k) [#21].
Initial Research And Lab Setup $500K
[#13] Forensics and analysis research instrumentation: high-resolution audio analysis chain, XRF/SEM/mass-spec access or purchase and lab start-up for pathology/audio materials analysis (~$500k).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $5.3M/yr
Insurance Reserve $2.0M/yr
[#23] Recurring insurance/contingency reserve line recommended ~$2M/yr to fund unplanned breaches, public exposures, or major casualty events; larger draws possible if required.
Staff Wages $1.6M/yr
[#1] Continuous on-site staffing with rotations: 8agents (~$100k fully-loaded each), 4 researchers (~$140k each), 4 support staff (~$70k each) and rotation/benefit overhead — approx. $1.64M/year.
Research And Monitoring $630K/yr
[#10, #13, #14, #25] Ongoing monitoring and research: remote telemetry/imagery subscriptions and telemetry costs ($30k/yr) [#10], forensics contract fees & consumables ($50k/yr) [#13], imaging/pathology contracts (MRI/CT/autopsies) ($100k/yr) [#14], and long-term research program funding (behavioral/neuro studies, postdocs, consumables) ($450k/yr) [#25].
Emergency Medical Fund $300K/yr
[#9] Emergency medical & trauma contingency baseline reserve for medevac, ICU/neurosurgery, and long-term care; analyst recommended ~$300k/yr baseline (range $200k–$1M).
Facilities Maintenance $265K/yr
[#12, #16, #17, #19] Ongoing facility and infrastructure maintenance: generator fuel & maintenance ($40k) [#12], perimeter barrier maintenance ($20k) [#16], fence/plaza repairs ($5k) [#17], and road/municipal maintenance within exclusion zone ($200k) [#19].
Cover Story And Legal $200K/yr
[#20] Legal, liaison and government coordination retainers, permits, and occasional payments to authorities/officials ($200k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $140K/yr
[#5, #15] Vehicle fuel & maintenance for patrol/transport fleet ($60k/yr) [#5] and capture operations recurring operations/training costs ($80k/yr) [#15].
Health Screening $48K/yr
[#8] Routine physical and mental health screening for rotating staff (baseline imaging/diagnostics) estimated at ~$48k/yr.
Supplies And Consumables $40K/yr
[#6, #22] Ammunition and replacement parts ($20k/yr) [#6] plus consumables/PPE/decontamination supplies ($20k/yr) [#22].
Training $40K/yr
[#7] Recurring training and qualifications (firearms, capture protocols, tactical medicine, psychological prep) estimated at ~$40k/yr.
Communications And Data $24K/yr
[#21] Recurring communications, secure networking, encrypted storage, bandwidth and cloud maintenance estimated at ~$24k/yr.
Archive Admin $20K/yr
[#24] Archive, documentation, SOP updates and administrative overhead (~$10–30k/yr; midpoint $20k used).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $5.3M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, required rotations, research, maintenance, and annual reserves; no major incidents or large one-time expenditures.
no breaches routine rotations scheduled research and maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $5.8M/yr
12.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized medical event or capture attempt requiring supplemental emergency response, additional contracting for imaging/forensics, and elevated legal/liaison activity.
single severe casualty capture operation with medical evacuations small-scale breach into public view
🚨 Major Breach $132.8M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$127.5M vs baseline
Significant containment failure or public exposure necessitating full remediation/demobilization and comprehensive town buyouts or extended cover operations.
widespread exposure or mass casualties decision to demolish/neutralize site comprehensive town buyouts / extensive legal settlements
👥 Personnel 16 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#1] Eight agents assigned to maintain no fewer than three on-site at any time while covering rotations, training, and leave.
Research Scientist 4 [#1] Four researchers to support on-site study, monitoring, and analysis with rotations.
Support Staff (med tech / admin / logistics) 4 [#1] Four support personnel covering medical tech, administration, and logistics to sustain rotations and operations.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item estimates and recommended midpoints for many items, raising confidence above low; however large uncertainties remain around perimeter extent, frequency of capture events, insurance/demolition needs, and political/legal exposure, so medium confidence is appropriate.
← SCP-2811 ↑ All SCPs SCP-2813 →