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SCP-2821 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-2821
Expected annual
$248.4M
One-time setup
$4.0B
Annual recurring
$150.9M
Personnel
52
Initial capital expenditures to establish robust lunar containment and monitoring are on the order of multiple billions USD, while steady-state operations run in the low hundreds of millions per year. Major drivers are Project Heisenberg R&D and prototype/transport costs (one-time) plus recurring staffing, logistics/propellant, and continuous monitoring/support on the Moon.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.0B
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.5B
[#6, #11, #12, #20] Minkowski Spacetime Monitors (multiple units), Project Heisenberg multi-year R&D budget, prototype construction / terrestrial test facilities, and HPC/simulation infrastructure.
Transport Heavy Payload $1.0B
[#13] Multiple heavy-lift launches, lander development/charter, payload integration and on-site assembly logistics to move containment device/heavy payload to the Moon.
Facilities $550.0M
[#1, #14, #18, #28] Lunar structural upgrades, on-site installation/dry-runs, secure containment vaults and decommissioning/return infrastructure.
Isru Development $400.0M
[#17] One-time development of on-Moon propellant/ISRU plant to reduce long-term resupply; optional large capital expenditure.
Equipment $263.0M
[#2, #5, #7, #8, #15] Two lead-coated (radiation-shielded) airlocks, initial sensor network, selected power hardware (solar+battery baseline), communications hardware, and initial robotics/manipulators.
Contingency Reserve One Time $200.0M
[#25] One-time reserved contingency funds for major emergency response or disaster scenarios.
Cover Story One Time $50.0M
[#23] One-time large funds for major cover stories/black-budget concealment events and diplomatic/legal prepayments.
Planetary Response Planning One Time $50.0M
[#27] One-time planning and coordination funding for planetary-scale response preparedness and interagency exercises.
Surface Camouflage $10.0M
[#4] Fabrication and emplacement of surface cover panels / regolith redistribution to mask the surface hole (one-time emplacement costs).
Medical Facilities Initial $1.0M
[#19] Initial on-site medical clinic set-up for radiation/trauma care and telemedicine links.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $150.9M/yr
Supplies And Consumables $32.0M/yr
[#16, #17, #19, #22] Consumables for lunar crew (O2, food, life-support spares), recurring propellant resupply (if not ISRU), medical supplies / medevac readiness, and amnestic supplies/administration.
Staff Wages $25.9M/yr
[#9, #10] On-site security/MTF rotations and high-grade research staff salaries, hazard pay, rotation logistics and life-support personnel costs.
Facilities Maintenance $25.5M/yr
[#3, #4, #7, #8, #15, #18, #24] Tunnel maintenance and inspection, cover maintenance, power system O&M, communications ops maintenance, robotics spares, radioactive storage operations and shielding replacement cycles.
Cover Story And Legal $20.0M/yr
[#23] Annual budget for cover operations, legal/diplomatic fees, false mission PR and black-budget concealment activities.
Administrative Overhead $20.0M/yr
[#26] Long-term manpower overhead, admin, procurement, accounting, compliance, facility depreciation and replacement reserve (10–25% style overhead estimate).
Research And Monitoring $15.5M/yr
[#5, #6, #20, #21] Sensor calibration/replacement, Minkowski monitor operations/calibration, HPC operations & simulation time, and continuous SIGINT/transmission monitoring and analysis.
Contingency Reserve Recurring $5.0M/yr
[#25] Annual standby funds, emergency launch slots and modeling/drills readiness funding.
Planetary Response Liaison $5.0M/yr
[#27] Annual liaison and continued coordination costs for interagency / international mitigation planning.
Logistics And Transport $2.0M/yr
[#9, #13] Ongoing transport logistics for crew rotations, EVA vehicle ops and modest recurring delivery/lander charters (excludes major payload launches accounted one-time).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $150.9M/yr
80.0% probability / year
Normal year with continuous monitoring and routine maintenance; no major incidents or escalatory projects.
steady-state monitoring routine maintenance no anomalous expansion
🚨 Minor Incident $200.9M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Localized release, sensor network damage, small-scale radioactive contamination or equipment failure requiring emergency repairs and modest extra launches.
small SCP-2821-1 ejection sensor/robot failure localized contamination
🚨 Major Breach $1.7B/yr
2.0% probability / year +$1.5B vs baseline
Significant containment failure or large SCP-2821 expansion event requiring urgent heavy-lift launches, rapid deployment of mitigation hardware and global-level contingency activation.
rapid anomaly expansion VK-class escalation risk multiple SCP-2821-1 radioactive ejections
🚨 Project Heisenberg Scale Up $2.2B/yr
3.0% probability / year +$2.0B vs baseline
Decision/year in which Project Heisenberg-Stiriacus is aggressively scaled: accelerated R&D, prototype finalization and multiple dedicated missions to emplace/activate a modified SRA on the Moon.
policy decision to deploy modified SRA accelerated funding and launches large-scale on-site integration
👥 Personnel 52 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 20 [#9] Surface/lunar security, EVA specialists and quick-response teams with rotation schedules and hazard pay.
Research Scientist 20 [#10, #6, #11] Level 4/2821 researchers, physicists and engineers involved in monitoring, analysis and R&D (Project Heisenberg personnel included in R&D budget).
Engineer / Maintenance 6 [#3, #7, #15] Robotics, power and structural maintenance engineers for tunnel, power systems, robots and on-site infrastructure.
Medical Officer 2 [#19] On-site medical staff for radiation/trauma care and telemedicine coordination.
Administrative Staff 4 [#26, #23] Procurement, legal/cover administration and program management supporting lunar operations.
📋 Confidence Notes
Wide ranges in analyst estimates, high technical uncertainty (speculative modified SRA), lunar launch/ISRU variability and catastrophic tail risks produce low confidence in point estimates.
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