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SCP-2824 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2824
Expected annual
$106.3M
One-time setup
$4.2B
Annual recurring
$104.3M
Personnel
41
One-time capital expenditure is approximately $3.74B driven primarily by the lunar regolith redistribution campaign and associated lunar hardware; recurring operations average about $104.3M/year driven by LOS Iota sustainment, staffing, mission ops, and sample-return logistics.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.2B
Facilities $2.6B
[#1, #9, #13, #16, #21] Primary physical/structural work: regolith redistribution (5 cm over ~7.07 km²) [#1], quarantine/mortuary facility outfitting and upfit [#9, #13], one-time security hardware/site upgrades [#16], and end-of-life/decommissioning planning reserve [#21].
Equipment $1.0B
[#2, #4, #5, #6, #17, #8] Hardware and deployed systems: robotic excavation/earthmoving fleet [#2], initial power infrastructure deployment (solar/RTG/batteries) [#4], high-res lunar camera and communications hardware [#5], robotic pruning system development/deployment [#6], data/infrastructure servers/encryption [#17], and dedicated return/mission hardware capability if built out [#8].
Human Return Mission $200.0M
[#10] One-time cost for an Earth-return/crewed evacuation mission for SCP-2824-2F (design, life support, ops, medical, decontamination, transport).
Contingency Reserve $200.0M
[#19] One-time reserved rapid-response fund / contingency for emergency launches or rapid capability expansion.
Dedicated Return Infrastructure $150.0M
[#8] One-time budget to build a persistent lunar-to-Earth return capability (orbital transfer/manifest integration hardware) rather than per-mission piggybacking.
Decommissioning Planning $20.0M
[#21] One-time end-of-life or controlled decommissioning planning and execution budget.
Quarantine And Mortuary Outfitting $400K
[#9, #13] Site-76 archaeological mortuary outfitting and planetary-protection upfit for returned material (climate/nitrogen cabinets, containment vaults) represented as a one-time cost.
Mortuary Outfitting $400K
[#13] Archaeological mortuary section outfitting (cabinets, conservation benches, PPE) as a one-time expense.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $300K
[#14] Initial laboratory analyses, sequencing runs, and specialist instrument time for first battery of forensic/material tests.
Initial Lab Analyses $300K
[#14] Initial round of forensic/genetic/material analyses (sequencing, radiocarbon, isotopes, metallurgical testing).
Cover Story Initial $200K
[#12] One-time legal/PR/records-suppression setup and any initial settlements or payments to establish the cover story for SCP-2824-2F reintegration.
Security Hardware $200K
[#16] One-time security hardware and electronic access upgrades at Site-76 (faraday, CCTV, locks).
Data Infrastructure $200K
[#17] One-time purchase and installation of secure servers/encryption hardware for archival video/telemetry and experiment logs.
Medical Initial $100K
[#11] Medical screening, acute treatment, amnestic procurement and administration on initial intake.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $104.3M/yr
Staff Wages $83.9M/yr
[#3, #9, #13, #16, #20, #11, #14] Personnel-related recurring costs: LOS Iota sustainment and rotational staffing [#3], quarantine/housing and medical/quarantine staffing [#9, #11], mortuary conservators and technicians [#13], on-site security guards and surveillance staff [#16], long-term monitoring/scientific staff [#20], and recurring research personnel time [#14].
Contingency Readiness Maintenance $10.0M/yr
[#19] Annual cost to maintain reduced readiness posture / standby mission capability and minimal launch-readiness reserves.
Facilities Maintenance $4.0M/yr
[#4, #9, #16] Ongoing maintenance for deployed power systems, habitat/lunar-site upkeep, and security infrastructure maintenance.
Research And Monitoring $3.0M/yr
[#5, #7, #14, #17] Recurring costs for camera bandwidth/ops, periodic inspection/pruning sorties, follow-up sequencing/research grants, and ongoing data analysis/archival costs.
Supplies And Consumables $1.2M/yr
[#6, #18] Consumables for robotic pruning/cutter wear and specialized disposal/containment consumables for removed crystal fragments.
Logistics And Transport $1.0M/yr
[#8, #15] Annualized logistics for sample packaging, transfers, insured ground transport and chain-of-custody movements; includes piggyback return increments or occasional dedicated transfers amortized.
Cover Story And Legal $550K/yr
[#12, #22] Ongoing legal retainers, PR, records maintenance, and off-books plausible-deniability accounting/insurance funds.
Sample Return Operations $500K/yr
[#8] Recurring per-year budgeting for sample-return mission increments (piggyback fees, packaging/manifesting) averaged across expected transfers.
Training And Drills $175K/yr
[#23] Annual training, EVA simulations, protocol drills, and certification for staff handling lunar operations and amnestic administration.
Medical Followup $10K/yr
[#11] Low-level ongoing medical and psychiatric follow-up costs for SCP-2824-2F after reintegration/quarantine.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $104.3M/yr
94.5% probability / year
Normal year with routine monitoring, scheduled inspections, periodic pruning and no major incidents or rapid-response launches.
routine_inspection_and_pruning regular_sample_transfers (piggyback) standard_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $109.3M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Non-catastrophic lunar hardware failure or accelerated local growth requiring extra sortie(s) and limited emergency repairs.
rover_or_comm_failure extra_pruning_and_replacement_parts localized_hardware_repair
🚨 Major Breach $454.3M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$350.0M vs baseline
Significant unexpected behaviour (rapid growth, multiple translocations, human emergence) requiring a rapid dedicated launch/evacuation and emergency containment on Earth.
accelerated_growth_trigger human_translocation/emergence urgent_dedicated_return_mission
👥 Personnel 41 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 15 [#16, #3] On-site guards and security operations staffing for Site-76 archaeological wing and LOS Iota liaison/security.
Research Scientist 6 [#14, #20, #3] Planetary scientists, archaeologists, exobiologists conducting analyses and long-term monitoring.
Engineer / Maintenance 6 [#2, #4, #6] Engineers and maintenance techs for lunar rovers, power systems, and robotic pruning hardware.
Mission Controller / Flight Ops 4 [#7, #3] Flight controllers and remote-ops staff to manage inspection/pruning sorties and rover operations.
Medical Officer 2 [#9, #11] Medical staff for quarantine, decontamination, and psychiatric evaluation/amnestic administration.
Conservator / Mortuary Technician 3 [#13] Conservators and mortuary technicians maintaining SCP-2824-2A–2E specimens at Site-76.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#3, #12] Senior administrative oversight and containment approvals for LOS Iota and Site-76 operations.
Administrative Staff 3 [#12, #22] Records management, legal/cover operations, logistics coordination and accounting support.
Data Analyst / Systems Administrator 1 [#17, #5] Data storage/archival management and telemetry/video analysis support.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on wide published ranges for lunar mission hardware and Foundation-specific recurring costs; major uncertainties stem from mission architecture choices (piggyback vs dedicated returns), frequency of sample returns, and unpredictability of anomalous behaviour, so figures are mid-range professional estimates.
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