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SCP-2863 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-2863
Expected annual
$30.1M
One-time setup
$33.9M
Annual recurring
$29.3M
Personnel
115
Initial capital purchases and R&D seed funds total roughly $33.9M one-time, while steady-state operations run about $29.3M/year; largest recurring drivers are personnel, research/monitoring, municipal lighting subsidies, and PR/legal containment.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $33.9M
Initial Research And Lab Setup $12.2M
[#8, #15, #22] Specialized illumination R&D/prototyping ~$2.0M; lab setup & specialized detectors/spectrometers ~$10.0M (midpoint of $5–15M); intelligence/database compilation & software $250k.
Equipment $9.5M
[#3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #9, #13, #23] Vehicles (10 armored vans) ~$2.0M; patrol boats (4) $1.2M; portable & buoy searchlight hardware $2.0M; generators/batteries $250k; unmanned systems/sensors $700k; initial PPE kits $840k; monitoring hardware deployment $2.0M; coastal hardware $500k. Items summed.
Contingency Reserve $7.5M
[#24] One-time seed/emergency reserve for large-scale/multi-day suppression operations; midpoint of $5–10M used.
Facilities $4.0M
[#2] One-time conversion/secureing costs for 6–10 regional containment bases (physical upgrades, EMP/hardened comms, CCTV, crew quarters). Midpoint of $3–5M used.
Recruitment Onboarding $250K
[#25] One-time recruitment/onboarding and vetting costs estimated ~$250k.
Liaison One Time $200K
[#19] One-time negotiation/legal costs and MOU setup estimated ~$200k.
Cultural Training $200K
[#20] One-time cultural consultant hires and initial ritual training program estimated ~$200k.
Aggregate Budget Note $0
[#26] Informational aggregate/planning note: analyst estimated initial capital & R&D purchases could add another $10–30M depending on procurement choices; included here for traceability (no additional numeric charge).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $29.3M/yr
Staff Wages $9.8M/yr
[#1] MTF-O3 personnel: 115personnel (96 field + 19 support) × $85,000 fully loaded = $9,775,000/yr.
Research And Monitoring $7.2M/yr
[#7, #8, #13, #15, #22, #23] Recurring costs: UAV licensing/replacement/software $150k; illumination R&D refinement/testing $500k; monitoring staffing & comms $800k; recurring research program salaries/travel/experiments ~$5.5M; intelligence/analyst staffing $200k; coastal/buoy maintenance $100k. Sum = $7.25M/yr.
Municipal Lighting $2.5M/yr
[#14] Subsidies/municipal programs to keep/upgrade lighting in 30 high-risk areas estimated $2–3M/yr; midpoint used.
Logistics And Transport $2.2M/yr
[#4, #12] Rotorcraft lease/ops and pilot/crew/maintenance ~$1.2M/yr plus per-incident mobilization (helicopter sorties, boat fuel, travel) ~$1.0M/yr.
Cover Story And Legal $2.0M/yr
[#18] Disinformation, media/PR management, witness compensation & legal retainers baseline estimated ~$2.0M/yr.
Facilities Maintenance $1.5M/yr
[#2] Annual leases/operations for regional bases estimated ~$1.5M/yr.
Equipment Replacement And Maintenance Reserve $1.5M/yr
[#17] Replacement reserve ~10–20% of capital; midpoint reserve used ~$1.5M/yr.
Medical Support $550K/yr
[#10] Medevac contracts, field medics, trauma care and hospital contingencies; midpoint of $400–700k used.
Forensics And Cleanup $500K/yr
[#16] Forensics, hazardous-waste disposal and scene cleanup estimated mid-range ~$500k/yr.
Emergency Public Safety $450K/yr
[#21] Temporary sheltering, riot-control and evacuation lighting contingency budget ~$300–600k/yr; midpoint used.
Liaison With Government $425K/yr
[#19] Recurring liaison staff and annual payments to police/coast guard/prefectures estimated ~$250–600k/yr; midpoint used.
Administrative Overhead $250K/yr
[#25] HR, recruiting, vetting, language training and retention bonuses recurring ~$200–300k/yr; midpoint used.
Supplies And Consumables $200K/yr
[#9] PPE replenishment and consumables (bulbs excluded from reserve) ~$200k/yr.
Cultural Consultants $150K/yr
[#20] Recurring retainers and refresher training for cultural practitioners ~ $150k/yr.
Amnestic Production $70K/yr
[#11] Class-A amnestic manufacture & administration: $100/dose × ~200 civilians = $20k plus clinical admin overhead → ~$70k/yr.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $29.3M/yr
82.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with expected incident rate and no major simultaneous manifestations; standard recurring budgets cover operations.
moderate incident frequency no mass simultaneous manifestations
🚨 Minor Incident $31.8M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Localized surge or an unusually costly incident requiring extra helicopter sorties, overtime, additional PR/amnestic administration and cleanup.
clustered sightings in a region multiple-day response requiring extra air/sea sorties
🚨 Major Breach $44.3M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline
Mass simultaneous manifestations or sustained multi-site incidents requiring large-scale illumination efforts, mass sheltering, and use of contingency reserves.
simultaneous multiple-instance manifestations mass civilian exposure and large-scale panic
👥 Personnel 115 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 96 [#1] Field operatives in rotating shifts (~96).
Medical Officer 5 [#1, #10] Field medics and medevac standby included in support staff (~5).
Research Scientist 4 [#1, #15] Laboratory and R&D scientists supporting illumination and anomalous research (~4).
Intelligence / Analyst 4 [#1, #22] Analysts and GIS/modeling staff (~4).
Engineer / Maintenance 4 [#6, #17] Engineers and technicians for generators, vehicles, lights and equipment maintenance (~4).
Administrative Staff / Command 2 [#1, #25] Command, liaison and administrative support (~2).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use analyst midpoints and known operational practices; many costs (helicopter purchase vs lease, incident tempo, cooperation with Japanese authorities) are uncertain, so figures are order-of-magnitude planning estimates rather than precise budgets.
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