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SCP-2870 Euclid ~ medium confidence
SCP-2870
Expected annual
$8.0M
One-time setup
$7.3M
Annual recurring
$7.8M
Personnel
6
Initial capital costs are estimated at several million USD driven by lab upgrades, quarantine rooms and development of an EHR monitoring system; annual operations are dominated by staff, contingency reserves, contact-tracing and amnestic procurement.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $7.3M
Initial Research And Lab Setup $3.6M
[#9, #10, #16] Laboratory containment upgrades (BSL-2+/BSL-3 work), diagnostic assay development, and initial R&D program setup for neutralization/vaccine studies.
Facilities $1.6M
[#7, #11, #26] Quarantine rooms / negative-pressure isolation (new/modular or retrofit), on-site incinerator capital purchase, and one mobile containment trailer unit; sums use midpoint estimates of provided ranges.
Equipment $1.3M
[#1, #8, #12, #18, #19, #6] EHR monitoring system development (software), transport vehicle conversion, enterprise secure deletion hardware/software, endoscopy rig, secure archival hardware, initial PPE stockpile.
Hospital Partnerships Initial Fees $550K
[#2] One-time or upfront partnership/compensation fees to onboard a set of hospitals (city-scale example).
Mtf Training Curriculum $162K
[#4] One-time development of MTF Chi-7 negotiation/training curriculum (simulations, PPE protocols).
Training Materials Development $30K
[#23] Development of patient-facing negotiation aides, written protocols and handouts (one-time development).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $7.8M/yr
Contingency Reserve Fund $2.0M/yr
[#24] Annual set-aside to fund rapid escalation (surge quarantines, mobile units, mass amnestic campaigns); conservative moderate reserve within analyst ranges.
Facilities Maintenance $1.1M/yr
[#7, #22, #26] Operating costs for quarantine beds (staff, utilities, consumables), HVAC/HEPA energy and filter premiums, and maintenance for mobile containment units.
Research And Monitoring $990K/yr
[#1, #9, #10, #16, #19, #18] EHR monitoring hosting/maintenance, per-test running costs, laboratory operating costs (certification, consumables), ongoing R&D program funding, archive maintenance, and endoscopy consumables.
Contact Tracing $900K/yr
[#15] Epidemiological investigation & contact-tracing team staffing and program costs (10-person outbreak-response capability reflected in annual staffing).
Cover Story And Legal $555K/yr
[#20, #12, #25, #2] PR/contingency retainer, per-patient records destruction/legal admin, ongoing ethical/compliance counsel, and recurring partnership/legal renewals with hospitals.
Amnestics $500K/yr
[#13] Procurement and administration of Class-A amnestic doses (variable per-dose costs); estimate represents a moderate-case annual throughput.
Staff Wages $480K/yr
[#3] Dedicated analyst & triage team (6 FTEs @ $80k/yr) to review alerts and coordinate responses.
Logistics And Transport $450K/yr
[#8, #5] Per-transport operating costs for secure patient transfers and per-incident MTF deployment travel/per-diem costs (domestic incident average).
Security Staffing $350K/yr
[#21] 24/7 guards and facility protection staffing costs for quarantine and research facilities (separate from analyst team).
Personnel Insurance $300K/yr
[#27] Additional insurance premiums, hazard pay and indemnity estimated as a payroll surcharge for personnel exposed to infectious/psychological risk.
Supplies And Consumables $145K/yr
[#6, #17, #11, #28] PPE replacement, per-patient disposables and medical/sampling consumables, contracted disposal per-case, and small operational line items (courier, meals, translation).
Mtf Refresher Training $75K/yr
[#4] Annual refresher training costs per operative for MTF Chi-7 embedding/negotiation protocol updates.
Training Materials Updates $5K/yr
[#23] Annual updates, printing and distribution of patient-facing negotiation aides and therapist guides.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $7.8M/yr
93.8% probability / year
Normal year with monitoring, routine containment, and no public exposures or large outbreaks.
sporadic isolated cases routine monitoring and response
🚨 Minor Incident $8.0M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Local media exposure or small cluster requiring extra PR/legal support and a modest surge response.
local press story small public cluster
🚨 Major Breach $12.8M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Larger containment failure or multi-hospital outbreak requiring mass quarantines, major PR spend, and surge medical response.
multi-hospital spread significant public exposure
🚨 Catastrophic Outbreak $57.8M/yr
0.2% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Uncontrolled community spread requiring mass national response, emergency public-health measures, and prolonged research scale-up.
community transmission mass hospitalizations national media/political exposure
👥 Personnel 6 total
Role Count Notes
Analyst / Triage Team 6 [#3] Dedicated 24/7 medical/epidemiology staff to review EHR alerts and coordinate responses (6 FTEs @ $80k/yr).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide ranges for most line items but many items are highly variable (amnestic cost, outbreak scale, PR contingency). Estimates are midpoints and program assumptions (bed count, case load) introduce uncertainty; therefore medium confidence.
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