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SCP-2871 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2871
Expected annual
$4.6M
One-time setup
$19.3M
Annual recurring
$4.3M
Personnel
18
Estimated initial capital outlay is approximately $19.3M driven primarily by contingency/reservation funds, radiochemistry hot-cell construction, shielding, and facility/site acquisition; ongoing annual operating costs are ~ $4.33M/yr driven by staff wages, waste handling, research program costs, and regulatory/cover-story expenditures.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $19.3M
Contingency Decontamination Remediation $5.2M
[#27] Decontamination and facility remediation contingency fund for worst-case cleanup / long-lived contamination.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $3.6M
[#9, #10, #11, #12, #13] Robotic sample-handling, vacuum/glovebox systems, initial radiation/particle detectors, high-resolution mass spectrometers, and radiochemistry hot-cell / fume hood lab buildout.
Facilities $2.9M
[#1, #2, #3] Site acquisition, test bay / mounting infrastructure, and shielded bunker (concrete, neutron moderators, lead shielding).
Insurance Reserve $2.8M
[#33] Contingent liability insurance / legal reserve sized as an initial reserve to cover accidental release, disclosure, or litigation.
Equipment $1.2M
[#4, #5, #6, #20, #24, #25, #26] Remote interlocks, Faraday/EMI shielding, HV/pulsed power equipment (one-time), initial electronics spares, emergency response hardware, perimeter surveillance initial install, and initial cybersecurity hardware.
Cover Story Initial $1.1M
[#19] Initial establishment of cover-story, shell entities, PR groundwork and appearance grants.
Decommissioning Per Unit $1.1M
[#30] Per-unit decommissioning and long-term disposition (rendering inert, dismantling, disposal/vaulting).
Manufacture Single Unit $425K
[#7] Manufacture/modification cost for a single operational SCP-2871 instance (precision cavity, wiring, assembly, RF tuning).
Permitting Initial $350K
[#18] Environmental permitting, regulatory compliance studies and initial legal counsel fees.
Personnel Security Vetting Initial $225K
[#31] Initial ethical oversight, background checks and security clearances (estimated per-person vetting applied to core staff).
Waste Handling Setup $125K
[#14] Initial handling/setup for radioactive waste storage & disposal (licensing/containers/initial contracts).
Per Unit Spare Parts $88K
[#8] Spare parts, machining and fabrication allowance (per unit) for cavities, coils, connectors and electronics.
Training Initial $88K
[#17] Initial SOP creation, radiological safety program setup, initial emergency drills and certifications.
Transportation Per Move $85K
[#29] Secure transport/convoy cost per move (armored transport, escorts, specialized containers) — per-move estimate.
Archival Modifications $30K
[#28] One-time archival modifications for climate-controlled secure vaults for prototypes.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.3M/yr
Staff Wages $2.2M/yr
[#15, #16] Annual payroll for research & technical staff and security staff (salaries + benefits and secrecy premiums).
Research And Monitoring $725K/yr
[#11, #21, #32, #17] Instrument calibration and external beam-time, scheduled experimental campaigns and program costs, plus recurring training/refresher costs.
Facilities Maintenance $638K/yr
[#6, #23, #24, #25, #26, #28, #14] Ongoing facility maintenance, energy/HVAC/generator fuel, electronics maintenance spares, emergency equipment upkeep, perimeter system upkeep, archival storage monitoring, and recurring waste handling operational costs.
Cover Story And Legal $625K/yr
[#18, #19, #33] Ongoing regulatory compliance retainer, cover-story / PR maintenance, and recurring insurance premiums.
Supplies And Consumables $55K/yr
[#22] Gases, cryogens, solvents, filters, PPE and other lab consumables.
Personnel Vetting And Security Clearance Renewal $54K/yr
[#31] Recurring background reinvestigations, polygraphs and clearance renewal costs.
Cybersecurity And It Maintenance $30K/yr
[#20] Recurring cybersecurity maintenance, patching, and control-system hardening upkeep.
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.3M/yr
87.5% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; routine experiments and scheduled maintenance only.
routine_experiments scheduled_maintenance no_incident
🚨 Minor Incident $4.8M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized radiological incident or equipment failure requiring emergency response, targeted decontamination, temporary pause in operations and modest equipment replacement.
equipment_failure small_radiological_release localized_contamination
🚨 Major Breach $9.3M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Significant containment/control failure producing wider contamination requiring large-scale remediation, replacement of major systems, regulatory fines and legal costs.
loss_of_control widespread_activation extended_decontamination
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $24.3M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$20.0M vs baseline
Severe, long-lived contamination or public exposure requiring full site remediation, long-term relocation, large legal settlements and drawdown of large contingency/insurance reserves.
long_lived_isotope_release public_exposure site_remediation_and_litigation
👥 Personnel 18 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / PI 1 [#15] Principal investigator / senior nuclear physicist (lead).
Research Scientist (Nuclear/Materials) 2 [#15] Nuclear/materials physicists for experiments and isotopic analysis.
Engineer / RF Engineer 2 [#15] Electrical/RF engineers for device operation and maintenance.
Lab Technician 3 [#15] Technicians for sample prep, instrumentation, and hot-cell operations.
Safety Officer 1 [#15, #31] Radiological safety officer responsible for SOPs and emergency response oversight.
Lab Manager 1 [#15] Laboratory manager/operations coordinator.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#16] Armed guards and rapid-response ERT specialists for 24/7 site security.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use mid-points of analyst ranges and reasonable allocations between capital vs recurring categories. The SCP description provides detailed hazard drivers (radiation, transmutation) but cost ranges and program scale are approximate, and contingency/reserve sizing is judgment-based; hence medium confidence.
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