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SCP-2873 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2873
Expected annual
$3.1M
One-time setup
$1.5M
Annual recurring
$3.1M
Personnel
15
Initial setup requires modest lab and vault upgrades (~$1.5M one-time); recurring annual operations dominated by personnel, legal/cover and containment overhead (~$2.9M/yr). Main drivers are staff wages, containment overhead, and occasional forensic/legal operations; catastrophic mass-recovery would be orders of magnitude higher.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.5M
Equipment $440K
[#6, #7, #8, #15, #18, #21] Initial CCTV/sensors/monitoring hardware (#6), air-gap/data diodes (#7), UPS/generator/EMP mitigation initial hardware (#8), inventory tagging/system hardware (#15), shredder/incinerator initial (#18), cybersecurity/supply-chain tooling (#21).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $425K
[#3, #4] Disassembly lab fit-out (ESD benches, microscopes, micro-soldering, fume extraction) (#3) and secure hardware analysis sandbox / FPGA rigs and test harnesses (#4).
Facilities $200K
[#5] High-security storage retrofit and structural/vault upgrades.
Legal Settlement Reserve One Time $200K
[#19] Reserve for potential one-off legal settlements or immediate PR containment payments.
Background Checks Initial $150K
[#12] Initial background checks, polygraphs and psych screening for staff (estimated for initial vetting of program personnel).
Sop Development $100K
[#14] One-time SOP development, containment/destruction procedure creation and initial training material development.
Mass Proliferation Contingency $0
[#29] Contingent large-scale buyback/neutralization (scenario-driven; cost modeled in scenarios rather than budgeted as baseline one-time spend).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.1M/yr
Staff Wages $1.4M/yr
[#9, #10, #11] Security staff (8 FTE), technical disassembly/EOD technicians (4 FTE), AI/memetic analysts & supervision (3 FTE); salary+load estimated.
Cover Story And Legal $400K/yr
[#19, #24] Ongoing legal/PR/liability management and insurance/reserve allocation.
Containment Overhead $300K/yr
[#23] Pro-rated Site-79 overhead: HVAC, general security ops, janitorial and physical plant share.
Research And Monitoring $250K/yr
[#16, #21] Ongoing forensic cyber/legal tracing campaigns and cybersecurity/supply-chain monitoring staff/ops.
Logistics And Transport $250K/yr
[#1, #2, #17, #20] Recovery operation costs per retrieval (#1), secure transport/chain-of-custody per shipment (#2), covert purchase/interception ops (#17), cooperation/diplomatic costs for international incidents (#20).
Staff Rotation And Counseling $100K/yr
[#13] Counseling, rotations, debriefing and memetic-safety programs for handlers.
Forensic Tracing Campaigns $100K/yr
[#16] Average annual spending on cyber-forensics and tracing campaigns against manufacturer/distribution chains.
Covert Purchase Ops $100K/yr
[#17] Recurring covert purchase/interception operations and operational costs.
Incident Response Drills $50K/yr
[#25] Annual incident response, rapid-reaction team readiness and live/tabletop exercises.
Training And Exercises $40K/yr
[#14] Annual training courses and drills to maintain SOP readiness.
Staff Vetting Renewals $30K/yr
[#12] Periodic background checks, clearance renewals and psych monitoring renewals.
Administrative Overhead $30K/yr
[#30] Ongoing administrative costs for redaction, classified-archive management and administration.
Facilities Maintenance $17K/yr
[#6, #8] Annual maintenance for monitoring/alarm systems (#6) and UPS/generator fuel & maintenance (#8).
Inventory Recurring $15K/yr
[#15] Ongoing secure inventory system maintenance, backups and classified recordkeeping costs.
Per Unit Cataloging $2K/yr
[#26] Labor for intake cataloging/forensic snapshot (assumes a small number of recoveries/year).
Per Unit Long Term Monitoring $2K/yr
[#27] Power and periodic checks for stored active components (assumes ~50 stored units at low per-unit cost averaged into total).
Per Unit Disposal Costs $1K/yr
[#18] Per-unit secure destruction costs (estimated small number of disposals per year).
Supplies And Consumables $0/yr
[]
Research Program Neutralization $0/yr
[#22] Research/rehabilitation program costs are conditional; set to $0 baseline unless authorized.
Opportunity Costs $0/yr
[#28] Strategic opportunity cost (contingent and highly variable) not budgeted in baseline.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.1M/yr
94.9% probability / year
Routine operating year with no major incidents; regular recoveries and maintenance only.
normal recovery cadence no breaches no large legal events
🚨 Minor Incident $3.6M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$550K vs baseline
Localized containment incident or transport loss requiring emergency response, extra tracing and legal work.
small breach or transport accident targeted legal exposure emergency forensic campaign
🚨 Mass Proliferation $57.9M/yr
0.1% probability / year +$54.8M vs baseline
Discovery of widespread civilian/military deployment requiring large-scale buyback/neutralization, international operations and major legal actions.
large-scale discovery (thousands of units) international recall/buyback major litigation and diplomatic costs
👥 Personnel 15 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#9] Armed/security coverage for storage and transport (round-the-clock staffing).
Research Technician / EOD Technician 4 [#10] Skilled technicians for disassembly, evidence preservation and inerting components.
Research Scientist / AI Analyst 3 [#11] AI/memetic analysts and supervisory staff to analyze chip behavior and author SOPs.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use midpoints of analyst ranges and an assumed small program scale (~50 stored units, ~5 recoveries/yr). Uncertainty remains around annual recovery rates, litigation exposure, and conditional research/neutralization programs; catastrophic scenarios are highly scenario-dependent.
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