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SCP-2875 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-2875
Expected annual
$32.0M
One-time setup
$129.9M
Annual recurring
$29.0M
Personnel
107
First-year capital (including optional town buyout) dominates total_one_time_usd; recurring costs are driven primarily by carcass disposal, core staffing, and per-bear consumables (tranquilizer + disposal).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $129.9M
Town Buyout $105.0M
[#21] One-time buyout/relocation option (Option B). Wide range in analyst notes; mid-range selected for planning.
Contingency Reserve $9.5M
[#24] Initial contingency/escalation reserve (25–50% of first-year op budget per analyst; mid-range used).
Decommissioning $5.2M
[#25] Long-term decommissioning/termination costs (mid-range).
Facilities $4.3M
[#4, #5, #6, #19] Perimeter construction, guard towers/lighting, FOB/field HQ buildout, and backup generator purchase (mid-range estimates summed).
Equipment $3.2M
[#7, #9, #10, #20, #13] Specialized/motorized blunt-force vehicles and standard fleet, drone fleet purchase, high-end surveillance nodes, secure communications hardware, and optional mobile incinerator (capital).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $2.3M
[#14, #15] Necropsy/forensic lab fitout and initial research program/startup funding for etiological and memetic study.
Training And Sop Development $165K
[#16] Initial training and SOP development (one-time portion).
Legal And Documentation One Time $125K
[#23] One-time legal structuring and initial records/documentation sanitization.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $29.0M/yr
Staff Wages $11.2M/yr
[#1, #3] Core containment personnel (MTF operators, medics, drivers) and command/admin/intel/legal/PR staff; loaded personnel costs aggregated (midpoint estimates).
Carcass Disposal $6.8M/yr
[#13] Annual carcass handling and disposal costs (per-bear disposal multiplied by ~9,127 bears/year; mid-range).
Research And Monitoring $2.6M/yr
[#10, #14, #15, #18, #27] Surveillance/sensor maintenance and data costs, recurring necropsy/forensics consumables and staff, ongoing research program, environmental monitoring, and predictive modeling/data science.
Surge Personnel $1.6M/yr
[#2] Reserve/contractor surge roster and overtime for peak event days (every ~3 days).
Logistics And Transport $1.6M/yr
[#8, #9] Vehicle fuel/maintenance/parts and aerial asset recurring costs (drone ops maintenance + helicopter charter hours).
Supplies And Consumables $1.5M/yr
[#11, #12] Tranquilizer aerosol consumables (per-bear) and PPE/medical supplies/decontamination consumables.
Civilian Indemnification Fund $1.1M/yr
[#22] Annual reserve for civilian incident response, liability, and property-damage indemnification.
Cover Story And Legal $675K/yr
[#21, #23] Ongoing public cover-up / PR / compensation (Option A) and recurring documentation/legal redaction costs.
Facilities Maintenance $610K/yr
[#5, #6, #19] Annual maintenance/power for guard towers/lighting, FOB utilities/maintenance, and site utilities/generator fuel (recurring portion).
Medical Care And Insurance $375K/yr
[#17] Medical care, worker's comp, and on-site emergency medical capability for injured staff.
Misc Contracting And Logistics $325K/yr
[#26] Day-to-day contracting and logistics (catering, laundry, local suppliers, courier services).
Veterinary And Zoonotic Surveillance $285K/yr
[#28] Specialized veterinary expertise, epidemiologists, and zoonotic surveillance/consultants.
Communications And Data Ops $125K/yr
[#20] Recurring secure communications, data storage, and operations costs.
Training And Sop Development Recurring $120K/yr
[#16] Recurring refresher training and live exercises.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $29.0M/yr
80.0% probability / year
Normal year of operations with recurring costs only and no major incidents or capital buyouts.
routine noon appearances no major containment failures
🚨 Minor Incident $32.0M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Localized containment failure or multiple serious staff injuries requiring emergency response, legal payouts, and extra disposal/repair.
localized breach multiple injuries heavy surge requiring extended ops
🚨 Major Population Explosion $44.0M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline
Non-linear increase in bear counts requiring large-scale surge operations, emergency evacuation, large equipment purchases and heavy remediation.
unchecked population growth failure of suppression methods
🚨 Town Buyout $134.0M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$105.0M vs baseline
Decision to permanently buy out/relocate the town (Option B), incurring a large one-time purchase in that year in addition to recurring ops.
strategic decision to evacuate/relocate political or legal pressure
👥 Personnel 107 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 70 [#1, #2] Primary containment operators responsible for detection, tranquilization, blunt-force dispatch, and perimeter response; count reflects permanent FTEs (surge roster is contractor-based and accounted separately).
Medical Officer 8 [#1, #17] Field medics and onsite emergency medical capability for trauma and occupational health.
Driver / Vehicle Operator 11 [#1, #7, #8, #26] Drivers and vehicle operators for motorized blunt-force devices, transport, and logistics.
Engineer / Maintenance 6 [#6, #7, #8] Maintenance staff for vehicles, crush rigs, FOB systems, and generators.
Site Command / Administrative Staff 8 [#3, #23] Site command, logistics, legal liaison, PR, and administrative support.
Research Scientist 4 [#14, #15, #27, #28] Necropsy, etiological, memetic, and modeling staff (small permanent core; additional contracts possible).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst-provided ranges and clear drivers enable a mid-confidence estimate, but large uncertainties remain (town buyout choice, disposal method, and per-event bear counts) which can change costs by orders of magnitude.
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