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SCP-2880 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2880
Expected annual
$9.1M
One-time setup
$64.5M
Annual recurring
$8.4M
Personnel
11
One-time capital costs dominated by maritime assets, contingency reserves, and remote-site infrastructure (~$64.5M). Annual operating costs are driven by logistics, vessel/submersible operations, and regional security (~$8.38M/year).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $64.5M
Contingent Mitigation Reserve $50.0M
[#28] Reserved one-time budget for large-scale mitigation / worst-case international operations (contingent; broad range in analyst notes).
Emergency Contingency Fund $5.5M
[#21] Establishment of a liquid catastrophic remediation / contingency fund (one-time capitalization).
Offshore Vessel Purchase $5.2M
[#13] Option to purchase a medium mothership/patrol vessel (capital cost; alternative to charter).
Facilities $1.5M
[#1, #14] Secure Containment Lockers fit-out (Lockers 2880‑A and 2880‑B1–B32) and on-site infrastructure at critical provisional areas (construction of shelters, freshwater catchment, solar, sanitation for ~15 sites).
Asset Relocation $1.1M
[#23] Repeated large-asset relocations (per-incident estimate aggregated as a potential one-time operation if performed again).
Equipment $606K
[#6, #9, #10, #12] Robotic arm and tooling (#6), decontamination/emergency equipment (#9), monitoring & telemetry hardware for provisional areas (#10), ROV purchase (#12).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $435K
[#4, #18, #22] Laboratory/conservation workspace fit-out (benches, fume hood, clean bench) (#4), initial data/servers and analysis infrastructure (#18), initial archaeological/provenance program startup (#22).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $8.4M/yr
Logistics And Transport $3.9M/yr
[#11, #12, #13, #15] Transportation and provisioning of provisional areas (quarterly boat/helicopter servicing model) (#11), occasional manned submersible charters and ROV ops (#12), offshore vessel charter/ops option (annual charter alternative to purchase) (#13), plus helicopter availability/standby retainer for regional response referenced in security (#15).
Security Detail $1.2M/yr
[#15] Regional rapid response/security teams for provisional areas (regional teams, armed response, readiness).
Staff Wages $1.0M/yr
[#3, #7] Storage technicians & Site‑74 security rotation (2 storage technicians + 4 guards) and core research team salaries (senior archaeologist, 2 research scientists, 1 conservator, 1 data tech).
Cover Story And Legal $525K/yr
[#16, #17] Legal, diplomatic, land-use and cover-story management (#16) combined with public relations/misinformation budget and outreach (#17).
Emergency Fund Replenish $500K/yr
[#21] Periodic replenishment of the contingency/remediation fund to maintain liquidity after small-to-medium draws.
Research And Monitoring $392K/yr
[#8, #10, #18, #19] Medical monitoring & clinical research and long-term subject tracking (#8), recurring telemetry/comms/maintenance for provisional area monitors (#10), recurring data hosting/analysis costs (#18), and annual containment testing campaign budget (#19).
Insurance And Compensation $225K/yr
[#24] Insurance, indemnities, and compensation payments / agreements with local entities to maintain cover and rights of access.
Psychological Care $125K/yr
[#20] Psychological treatment and long-term care fund for personnel affected by hallucinations and sensory effects.
Facilities Maintenance $104K/yr
[#2, #26] Lockers climate control / environmental monitoring (temperature/RH control, sensor subscriptions) (#2) and general power/utilities for Site‑74 and remote infrastructure (#26).
Archaeological Ongoing $100K/yr
[#22] Ongoing archaeological documentation, fieldwork, dating and provenance research program costs.
Remote Site Maintenance $90K/yr
[#14] Recurring maintenance for modest on-site infrastructure at critical provisional areas (applies to subset of ~10–20 sites; model assumes ~15).
Rov Maintenance Ops $60K/yr
[#12] Ongoing maintenance and operations for ROVs / unmanned submersibles (does not include ad-hoc manned-sub charters).
Training And Drills $60K/yr
[#25] Regular training for researchers, medics, security and vessel crews on unique incident responses.
Supplies And Consumables $40K/yr
[#5, #6, #9, #27] Conservation & assembly consumables (#5), PPE replenishment (#6), decontamination consumables/replacements (#9), and small-item replacement & packaging refresh (#27).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $8.4M/yr
78.5% probability / year
Normal operational year with routine quarterly servicing, monitoring, and no major incidents.
quarterly servicing as planned no breaches or major research scale-ups
🚨 Minor Incident $8.9M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized incident requiring emergency repairs, short-term increased logistics and medical follow-up.
unauthorized access to a provisional site equipment failure requiring rapid replacement
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $11.4M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Decision to scale up active relocations or continuous staffing and more frequent servicing to enable expanded research.
programmatic decision to relocate additional B artifacts continuous on-island stationing adopted
🚨 Major Breach $13.4M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Significant containment breach or compound equipment failure requiring multi-day response, vessel mobilization, and site repairs.
major unauthorized interaction multi-site equipment failure
🚨 Catastrophic Mitigation $58.4M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Large-scale mitigation/remediation requiring international operations, mass relocation or destruction of artifacts.
networked-artifact exploitation discovered ecological or mass-transport risks materialize
👥 Personnel 11 total
Role Count Notes
Storage Technician 2 [#3] Site‑74 technicians responsible for inventory, logging and inspections (included in staff_wages).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 4 [#3] Site‑74 storage wing guards (included in staff_wages).
Senior Archaeologist 1 [#7] Senior archaeologist leading research (included in staff_wages).
Research Scientist 2 [#7] Materials/behavioral research scientists (included in staff_wages).
Conservator 1 [#7] Conservator for assembly and conservation work (included in staff_wages).
Data Technician 1 [#7] Data technician for cataloging and GIS/backup operations (included in staff_wages).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges for most categories, enabling reasonable estimates, but many items have wide ranges or contingent/option choices (purchase vs charter, scale-up decisions, low-frequency catastrophic scenarios) which reduce precision.
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