SCP-2948 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2948
Expected annual
$20.9M
One-time setup
$6.1B
Annual recurring
$18.3M
Personnel
30
One-time capital/setup costs are dominated by contingency/reserve and potential long-term disposition; recurring annual costs are dominated by research, insurance/indemnity programs, and security staff wages. Baseline recurring operating cost is approximately $18.3M/yr.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $6.1B
Facilities $5.3B
[#1, #2, #9, #10, #27] Vault construction, heavy radiation shielding, power infrastructure, site security physical works, and an (infeasible but enumerated) containment-upgrade expense.
Catastrophic Liability Reserve $550.0M
[#17] Notional disaster contingency fund / catastrophic liability reserve (one-time allocation).
Long Term Disposition $275.0M
[#19] Deferred one-time cost estimate for long-term geological storage / disposition of ~60 kg Uranium-240 if undertaken.
Equipment $5.8M
[#3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #14, #15, #22, #26] Initial procurement/installation of HVAC, acoustic isolation, lighting, air-quality systems, electrical isolation feedthroughs, passive sensor suite, robotic handling hardware, transport cask, communications/TEMPEST equipment, and monitoring software/hardware.
Legal And Cover Initial $2.8M
[#20] One-time legal, PR, amnestic/cover story startup costs and initial intelligence/cover operations budgeting.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.8M
[#13] Initial setup costs for the dedicated disarmament R&D program (lab buildout, testbeds, classified compute).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $18.3M/yr
Research And Monitoring $6.2M/yr
[#13, #18, #26] Ongoing multidisciplinary disarmament R&D program operations, environmental/decontamination monitoring, and archival/storage of high-resolution logs.
Insurance And Indemnity Programs $5.2M/yr
[#21] Specialized indemnity/political risk funds and reserved premiums (largely symbolic given practical uninsurability).
Staff Wages $2.9M/yr
[#11, #12] Salaries/benefits for 24/7 armed security (18 guards + EOD / rapid response operators) and nuclear security custodial/technical staff.
Cover Story And Legal $1.1M/yr
[#20] Ongoing legal fees, PR / memetic operations, amnestic program maintenance and classified legal counsel retainers.
Misc Administrative Overhead $1.1M/yr
[#28] Classified procurement premiums, facility overhead, special clearances, and administrative costs to maintain plausible deniability.
Facilities Maintenance $578K/yr
[#3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8, #9, #10] Ongoing HVAC/power costs, acoustic/vibration recalibration, lighting and air-quality consumables, electrical isolation support, sensor maintenance, generator/fuel and site security systems operations.
Exclusion Zone And Emergency Preparedness $300K/yr
[#16] Exclusion zone maintenance, evacuation planning, periodic drills with local authorities and community compensation preparedness.
Robotic Handling Maintenance $300K/yr
[#14] Ongoing maintenance, calibration and spare parts for pneumatic/hydraulic/mechanical manipulators and remote tooling.
Training And Certification $175K/yr
[#24] Regular hazardous-material, radiation safety, EOD and evacuation drills and certification renewals.
Periodic Audit And Oversight $150K/yr
[#25] Independent audits, red-team penetration testing and oversight reviews.
Communications And Cybersecurity $125K/yr
[#22] Secure air-gapped comms operations, TEMPEST countermeasures upkeep, and cybersecurity operations.
Logistics And Transport $100K/yr
[#15] Recurring transport readiness / occasional transport event costs (maintaining transport capability and occasional convoy expenses).
Supplies And Consumables $60K/yr
[#23] Consumables (filters, PPE, spare parts) and routine replacement of protective gear.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $18.3M/yr
95.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with routine operations, maintenance, and research spending only.
routine_operations scheduled_maintenance ongoing_research
🚨 Minor Incident $20.3M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Localized containment/monitoring incident requiring emergency response, decontamination, investigation and PR/legal actions.
sensor_failure small_contamination_event transport_incident
🚨 Catastrophic Detonation $5.0B/yr
0.1% probability / year +$5.0B vs baseline
Full detonation or catastrophic failure leading to mass destruction, large-scale cleanup, legal/liability payouts and utilization of contingency reserves.
trigger_activation major_breach systemic_failure
👥 Personnel 30 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 18 [#11] 24/7 armed guards across shifts (18 total as specified).
EOD / Rapid Response 4 [#11] Quick-reaction hazardous-materials and EOD operators on call (4 specified).
Nuclear Security Specialist / Radiological Technician 8 [#12] Nuclear custodians, radiological technicians and facility leads (6–10 specified; midpoint used).
📋 Confidence Notes
Line items and ranges were well-specified in analyst notes, enabling midpoint-based estimates; however very large tail risks (contingency reserve, containment-upgrade infeasibility, disposition costs) and rare-event probabilities introduce substantial uncertainty.
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